2003年广东风暴潮分析和预报总结

2003年登陆广东的3个台风(0307号伊布都、0312号科罗旺、0313号杜鹃),中心气压及风力都十分强,分别造成全省沿海较高的风暴潮位,甚至部分沿海破了或平了历史记录。3个强台风同一年登陆广东且分别造成珠江口、粤西、粤东较严重风暴潮的情况十分罕见。本文从台风特性、台风增水、台风风暴高潮位、重现期等方面进行分析,并从中分别总结出我省沿海各岸段台风风暴潮的主要特点及作业预报经验。     

一次登陆湛江台风风暴潮数值预报

本文对2002年8月在湛江附近登陆的0214号强热带风暴(黄蜂)进行了风暴潮实时预报。根据中央气象台预报的热带气旋强度和位置,采用数值模式,在该热带气旋由北上加强到登陆减弱的整个过程中,进行了三次实时预报,分别为18日20时、19日08时和19日 17时。预报结果表明本数值模式具有良好的预报功能,并指出其风暴潮预报时效和精度在很大程度上取决于热带气旋气象预报的时效和精度。     

基于ADCIRC-SWAN耦合模式的山东海洋牧场近30年风暴潮和海浪灾害特征分析

基于ADICRC-SWAN耦合模式,文章模拟了山东半岛1985— 2017年的61场风暴潮过程,研究了佳益、明波、富瀚3个海洋牧场的增水与有效波高的分布特征。通过分析3个海洋牧场的风暴增水与有效波高的年极值序列得出,台风风暴潮发生次数最多,但强度没有明显的规律;温带气旋频率最低,但引起的平均增水较高。寒潮引起的风暴潮主要在明波海洋牧场形成高增水,同时在佳益海洋牧场形成大浪。以年极值序列为基础,利用Gumbel极值分布计算了出3个海洋牧场的百年一遇增水与有效波高,增水在明波最高,在佳益最低,而有效波高则相反。进一步考虑波高与增水的联合概率分布,佳益海洋牧场的百年一遇有效波高在增水为50 cm时降低至6.5~7.1 m,在增水150 cm的情况再降至3.9~4.6 m;富瀚海洋牧场的波高在50 cm增水条件下降幅比较明显,在水位增加到150 cm时变化不大,都在2.6~3.2 m;明波海洋牧场在增水为0,50 cm和150 cm时的波高在1.9~2.8 m,与考虑单变量极值情况差别不大。模拟结果对海洋牧场的风暴潮防灾减灾工作有一定参考价值。     

深水系泊新型拖曳锚研发关键技术

作为深海工程应用中一种新型的拖曳嵌入式系泊基础,法向承力锚与目前新型的深水绷紧索系泊方式结合,在深水条件下的优势非常明显.综合比较了新型拖曳锚、吸力锚以及桩锚在施工、性能以及经济性等多方面的特点.提出了开展新型拖曳锚研发的若干关键技术.在对国外的实验研究现状进行综合评述的基础上,重点介绍了在构建新型拖曳锚模型实验平台方面取得的成果,涉及模型水槽、拖曳与回收系统、测量系统、模型锚板设计以及拖曳-系泊转换机构等关键技术.     

胶州湾风暴潮增水重现值的长期预测

以胶州湾30 a风暴潮过程的极值增水值为统计序列,按照年、季、月等不同时段,分别抽样极值增水样本,提出泊松最大熵分布,采用年极值法和过阈法对增水重现值进行长期预测,统计分析结果对于胶州湾防潮减灾有参考作用,其随机分析方法对于遭受风暴潮影响的海岸区域有借鉴意义。     

0216号台风风暴潮分析

本文着重分析了0216号台风引起的福建全省沿海风暴潮几个显著特点及其成因，初步探讨灾情分布的原因，为今后该类型台风风暴潮预报积累经验及防灾减灾提供基础资料依据。     

基于格子Boltzmann方法的斜坡堤越浪数值模拟研究

准确确定越浪量对于斜坡堤设计有重要意义。利用格子Boltzmann方法(LBM),并采用主动吸收式速度入口造波、出流边界消波、VOF方法追踪自由表面以及静态Smagorinsky模型模拟紊流运动,建立二维数值波浪水槽,对光滑斜坡堤上规则波与不规则波越浪进行数值模拟。模拟结果与试验值及其他数值模型结果比较表明,二维LBM数值波浪水槽具有模拟斜坡堤越浪的能力,但对于破碎较为剧烈的越浪过程模拟,该模型还存在一定的不足,未来可从提高自由表面模型精度等方面进一步改善其性能。     

Numerical simulation of non-linear regular and focused waves in an infinite water-depth

Inviscid three-dimensional free surface wave motions are simulated using a novel quadratic higher order boundary element model (HOBEM) based on potential theory for irrotational, incompressible fluid flow in an infinite water-depth. The free surface boundary conditions are fully non-linear. Based on the use of images, a channel Green function is developed and applied to the present model so that two lateral surfaces of an infinite-depth wave tank can be excluded from the calculation domain. In order to generate incident waves and dissipate outgoing waves, a non-reflective wave generator, composed of a series of vertically aligned point sources in the computational domain, is used in conjunction with upstream and downstream damping layers. Numerical experiments are carried out, with linear and fully non-linear, regular and focused waves. It can be seen from the results that the present approach is effective in generating a specified wave profile in an infinite water-depth without reflection at the open boundaries, and fully non-linear numerical simulations compare well with theoretical solutions. The present numerical technique is aimed at efficient modelling of the non-linear wave interactions with ocean structures in deep water.     

青岛沿海风暴潮分析

利用“青岛海军验潮站”(青岛大港1号码头)1949~2003年潮汐资料,采用统计风暴高潮位≥510cm出现频数的方法,对青岛沿海风暴潮进行统计分析。结果表明:诱发青岛沿海显著风暴高潮位的天气系统都是台风,集中出现在8月下旬~9月上旬,阴历初三至初五、十五至十八两个天文大潮时段。     

Numerical Investigation of High Tide Level Due to A Super Typhoon in A Coastal Region

A numerical model of the coupling between astronomical tide and storm surge based on Mike 21 is applied to the coastal regions of Zhejiang Province.The model is used to simulate high tide levels combined with storm surge during 5 typhoons,including two super typhoons,that landed in the Province.In the model,the atmospheric forcing fields are calculated with parametric wind and pressure models.The computational results,with average computed errors of 13 cm for the high astronomical tide levels and 20 cm for the high storm-tide levels,show that the model yields good simulations.Typhoon No.5612,the most intense to land in China since 1949,is taken as the typical super typhoon for the design of 5 typhoon routes,each landing at a different location along the coast.The possible extreme storm-tide levels along the coast are calculated by the model under the conditions of the 5 designed typhoon routes when they coincide with the spring tide.Results are compared with the high storm-tide levels due to the increase of the central atmospheric pressure at the base of a typical super typhoon,the change of tidal type,and the behavior of a Saomai-type typhoon.The results have practical significance for forecasting and minimization of damage during super typhoons.