基于有限元法的福建沿岸天文潮风暴潮耦合预报模式研究

采用有限元法建立了一个适用于福建沿岸的天文潮-风暴潮耦合预报模式(FETSCM),模式采用三角网格,在福建沿岸平均网格分辨率为1 km,最高500 m.利用福建沿岸6个潮位站的实测资料对模型进行了验证,天文潮模拟结果与实测吻合良好,5个站位平均绝对误差为22 cm;31场历史台风期间6个站位风暴潮后报模拟误差为24 cm;天文潮-风暴潮耦合总水位的平均极值误差为20 cm,表明该耦合预报模式对福建沿岸的台风灾害预警有较好实用价值.     

风暴潮灾害脆弱性研究综述

脆弱性是自然灾害风险研究的热点,风暴潮灾害脆弱性与风暴潮自然过程强度以及沿海社会经济、人口、自然环境等因素相关。本文从风暴潮灾害脆弱性定义出发,对国内外风暴潮灾害社会脆弱性和物理脆弱性进行了回顾,重点对人口、海堤、房屋等风暴潮灾害典型承灾体物理脆弱性研究进展进行了论述,分析了风暴潮灾害脆弱性评价中存在的不确定性,探讨了风暴潮灾害脆弱性在灾害损失评估、保险及再保险、防灾减灾决策支持等领域的应用,对未来风暴潮灾害脆弱性研究提出了以下展望：①开发符合中国沿海区域风暴潮灾害特征和承灾体分布的定量化、精细化脆弱性曲线,拓展风暴潮脆弱性评价结果在保险理赔、灾害损失评估等领域应用;②气候变化背景下中国沿海面临风暴潮巨灾风险,迫切需要建立科学的基于灾害实地踏勘以及物模实验、数值模拟相结合的风暴潮灾害典型承灾体脆弱性评估方法模型。     

气候变化背景下中国风暴潮灾害风险及适应对策研究进展

风暴潮是沿海地区在强烈的大气扰动条件下产生的异常增水现象,并受海平面上升等因素的影响。中国风暴潮灾害频繁,其中尤以东南沿海地区发生频率较高,灾害损失严重。本文从风暴潮灾害的危险性、承灾体的易损性、综合风险区划3个方面系统总结风暴潮灾害的研究进展及存在的主要问题;并以风暴潮灾情特征及风险评估为基础,探讨气候变化对风暴潮灾害风险的影响及其适应对策。气候变化引起的海平面上升将影响风暴潮的趋势、周期及风险区域,因而亟待开展结合海平面上升等因素的综合风险评估。充分考虑气候变化背景下沿海地区自然条件变化及社会经济发展状况,注重短期与长期相结合,完善风险评估体系。为适度、有序的适应气候变化下风暴潮灾害风险,中国在应急预警机制、工程防御及政策法规等适应能力建设方面不断完善,以提高风暴潮灾害的防灾减灾能力。     

Simulation of Storm Surges in the Bay of Bengal Using One-Way Coupling Between NMM-WRF and IITD Storm Surge Model

The storm surge associated with severe tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is a serious concern along the coastal regions of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka. It is one of the most hazardous elements associated with landfalling TCs other than strong winds and heavy precipitation and about 75% of the casualities in this region are attributed to storm surges. Therefore, it is highly essential to predict the storm surges with greater accuracy at least 2 days in advance for effective evacuation. In the present study, an attempt is made to simulate the storm surges associated with severe TCs in the BoB using one-way coupling of the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model core of Weather Research and Forecasting (NMM-WRF) system with the two-dimensional finite-difference storm surge model developed at the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (IITD). The NMM-WRF model simulated track, pressure drop, and radius of maximum wind are used to calculate the wind-stress through Jelesnianski wind formulation. The results are compared with the observed/estimated values as provided by the operational/meteorological agencies of India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. This study suggests that using simulated surface meteorological fields of a high-resolution mesoscale model, the storm surge can be predicted at least 2 days in advance of the actual landfall of TCs with reasonable accuracy. This approach will be helpful in providing disastrous storm warning well in advance in a coastal region, which will help with rapid evacuation from the vulnerable coastal region, relocation as well as protection of valuables, disaster mitigation, and coastal zone management.     

海河流域主要河口闸下通道风暴潮增水研究

建立东海-黄海-渤海大范围风暴潮二维数学模型,对9216台风风暴潮过程进行模拟,分析渤海湾造陆工程前后风暴潮增水对海河流域主要河口(海河口、永定新河口和独流减河口)闸下区域最高潮位的影响,并探讨有效降低河口闸下通道内风暴潮潮位的开发方式。研究表明:渤海湾围填海工程实施后,闸下通道内维持自然地形时,通道内最高潮位高于工程前;闸下通道实施地形开挖后,通道内最高潮位依然高于工程前,但较自然地形条件下抬高幅值有所减小。闸下通道结合开发建设港池航道等工程实施地形开挖,使得通道内水深增加,可降低通道内风暴潮增水幅度。     

Numerical Wave Tank Based on A Conserved Wave-Absorbing Method

Recently the numerical wave tank has become a widely-used tool to study waves as well as wave-structure interactions, and the wave-absorbing method is very important as its effect on the quality of waves generated. The relaxation method and the derived momentum source method are often utilized, however, the damping weight is constant during calculation and repeated trials are required to obtain an acceptable wave-absorbing effect. To address the above- mentioned issues, a conserved wave-absorbing method is developed. The damping weight is determined by solving the mass conservation equation of the absorbing region at every time step. Based on this method, a two-dimensional numerical wave tank is established by using the VB language to simulate various waves by which the validation of this method is evaluated.     

Vulnerability of families and households to natural hazards: A case study of storm surge flooding in Sarasota County,Florida

The role that family and household structure, size, and ethnic/racial composition play in increasing or decreasing vulnerability to natural hazards, which has been missing from the literature, is investigated. The study first reviews the conceptual foundations of the relationships between families/households and natural hazards vulnerability and then employs a principal components analysis to uncover spatial variations in the vulnerability of families and households to hurricane storm surge hazards in Sarasota County, Florida. The analysis identifies and maps five principal components that explain approximately 83% of the variance in family/household population: nuclear families/households; Black families/households; nonfamily, young adult group households; Hispanic families/households; and Asian families/households. Comparison of storm surge risk maps with the locations of these families/households shows the relative vulnerability of each of these family/household categories, with elderly householders living alone on exposed barrier islands being the most vulnerable. The research suggests that family and household structures integrate several socio-demographic vulnerability indicators central to most social vulnerability assessments. Results indicate that future research and hazard mitigation policies should focus on families and households as core analytical units. Findings also suggest that recognizing the diversity of families and households is important to reducing vulnerability to natural hazards.     

泥石流的径流量与流量分布特征

在泥石流危险度评价中，泥石流的规模和频率通常被视为最重要的两个特征因子，但在区域性的研究中，两者之间的关系并没有充分地表现出来。利用蒋家沟的大量观测数据，对流量、径流量这两个最能反映泥石流规模的参数，进行统计分析，分析流量与径流量的分布特征，从一个侧面反映泥石流规模和频率之间的关系。结果表明，尽管频率随流量和径流量规模的增大而减小，但在定量上，不同事件之间存在明显的差异，这是由泥石流的自身特征决定的，因而分布特征也反映了泥石流活动的本质。     

Vulnerability from storm surges and cyclone wind fields on the coast of Andhra Pradesh,India

The results presented here are from a study conducted for the government of the state of Andhra Pradesh (GOAP) in India, as part of a World Bank project on cyclone mitigation. A set of detailed maps were prepared depicting the Physical Vulnerability (PV), specifically storm surge inundation zones are shown for frequent occurrence, 50-year return period, likely scenario for global warming and extreme global warming. Similarly vulnerable areas from strong wind field from tropical cyclones (TCS) are also presented for the same four parameters. Vulnerability zones are presented from a social point of view also based upon certain socio-economic parameters that were included in determining the overall vulnerability of each Mandal in a coastal district (a Mandal represents a group of villages and towns) include: population, senior citizens, women, children under different age groups, type of housing, income level, cyclone shelters, hospitals and medical centres, schools and caste based population. The study is about scenarios that could happen if global warming and the predicted intensification of TCS actually occur as predicted by some numerical models.