莱州湾东部潮上带土地利用对海岸蚀退的影响

基于二维浅水方程、波作用守恒方程和对流扩散方程, 建立了波浪-潮流-泥沙耦合数值模型, 分析了最近20 年来莱州湾东部潮上带土地利用对海岸蚀退的影响。结果显示, 潮上带土地利用改变 了风暴潮时的水动力边界条件, 显著增大了岸线附近的水流流速。随着潮上带养殖设施覆盖比例的 提高, 从平面分布看, 岸线附近侵蚀显著加重, 侵蚀条带平行岸线并向下游延伸、向海侧拓展; 从剖 面分布看, 岸线两侧侵蚀深度显著增大、范围明显扩展, 水下岸坡的闭合水深加大, 闭合点外移; 从 动力条件变化看, 岸线附近水流流速最大。分析表明, 最近20 年来大规模的潮上带土地利用是莱州 湾东部海岸蚀退的重要影响因素。     

液舱三维晃荡运动二阶共振理论解及特性分析

从无旋运动的理论出发,并利用微扰法,推导了液舱三维晃荡运动二阶共振问题的理论解。考虑纵荡和横荡运动情况,对液舱三维晃荡二阶共振问题进行了分析。当两个晃荡方向的和频(即其外部激发频率的和)或差频(即其外部激发频率的差值)等于液舱固有频率时,二阶共振发生;当某一晃荡方向(横荡或纵荡)外部激发频率与另一晃荡方向(纵荡或横荡方向)液舱某一固有频率的和或差值等于液舱另一固有频率时,二阶共振也会发生。进一步研究了各个二阶共振激发频率下水深变化对晃荡振幅的影响。结果表明,对于两个晃荡方向外部激发频率的和频和单一晃荡方向(纵荡或横荡)某一个激发频率与另一晃荡方向(横荡或纵荡)某一个属于奇模的固有频率的和频所引发的共振情况,水深变化对共振振幅大小的影响比较大;而对于相应差频所引发的共振情况,水深变化对共振振幅大小的影响比较小。     

Simulation of Storm Surge and Wave Due to Typhoon Isewan (5915)

An integrally coupled wave-tide-surge model was developed and then applied to the simulation of the wave-typhoon surge for the typhoon Isewan (typhoon Vera (5915)), which is the strongest typhoon that has struck Japan and caused incalculable damage. An integrally coupled tide-surge-wave model using identical and homogeneous meshes in an unstructured grid system was used to correctly resolve the physics of wave-circulation interaction in both models. All model components were validated independently. The storm surge and wave properties such as the surge height, the significant wave height, wave period and direction were reproduced reasonably under the meteorological forcing, which was reprocessed to be close to the observations. The resulting modeling system can be used extensively for the prediction of the storm surge and waves and the usual barotropic forecast.     

2008年初南方雨雪冰冻期间降水过程的温湿异常

2008年1月10日—2月2日我国中南部地区发生了严重的低温雨雪冰冻灾害。该文分析此次过程的冷空气活动和水汽输送,比较两者在降水形成中的相对重要性。利用文中定义的两个参量,可以直接比较水汽和温度这两个量在降水中所起的作用,并比较两者作用的相对重要性。结果表明:在低层 (850 hPa及以下),我国中南部地区温度偏低、水汽偏少,但温度偏低对降水偏多的正贡献大于水汽偏少的负贡献,两者的净贡献为正,因此,冷空气活动主导降水。在较高层 (600 hPa及以上),中南部地区水汽偏多、温度偏高,但水汽偏多对降水的正贡献大于温度偏高的负贡献,因此,水汽输送主导降水。在中层 (700 hPa),干冷空气和暖湿空气混合导致,中南部地区水汽偏多、温度偏低,两者均有利于空气饱和,对降水均起正作用;计算结果显示,水汽的贡献略强于温度的贡献。     

Uncertainty in floodplain delineation: expression of flood hazard and risk in a Gulf Coast watershed

This paper investigates the development of flood hazard and flood risk delineations that account for uncertainty as improvements to standard floodplain maps for coastal watersheds. Current regulatory floodplain maps for the Gulf Coastal United States present 1% flood hazards as polygon features developed using deterministic, steady‐state models that do not consider data uncertainty or natural variability of input parameters. Using the techniques presented here, a standard binary deterministic floodplain delineation is replaced with a flood inundation map showing the underlying flood hazard structure. Additionally, the hazard uncertainty is further transformed to show flood risk as a spatially distributed probable flood depth using concepts familiar to practicing engineers and software tools accepted and understood by regulators. A case study of the proposed hazard and risk assessment methodology is presented for a Gulf Coast watershed, which suggests that storm duration and stage boundary conditions are important variable parameters, whereas rainfall distribution, storm movement, and roughness coefficients contribute less variability. The floodplain with uncertainty for this coastal watershed showed the highest variability in the tidally influenced reaches and showed little variability in the inland riverine reaches. Additionally, comparison of flood hazard maps to flood risk maps shows that they are not directly correlated, as areas of high hazard do not always represent high risk. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Flare-associated surge prominence on 1980 october 30

The Hα observations of a flare-associated surge prominence on 1980 October 30 have been described. Morphology and dynamics of the surge prominence have been presented. From our observations and analysis we have estimated the magnetic field associated with surge material to be about 35 gauss which is in good agreement with the earlier result of Tandberg-Hanssen & Malville (1974). It has been determined that coronal pressure is not acting as a resistive force on the outward expansion of the surge into the corona. The kinetic energy of the surge was about 10²⁸ erg, which is 2 orders less than required for the mass to escape the chromosphere. It appears that the flare-associated surge prominence was perhaps a result of kink instability in the flaring region.     

北海市沿岸风暴潮预报方法研究

根据1965-2008年共77个热带气旋影响的北海站过程最大增水资料,采用两种方法进行后报结果研究,结果表明:经验预报方法的计算值与左路台风的实测值拟合较好,但是,当实测值≤70 cm时,其计算值大于左路台风的实测值,当实测值＞70 cm时,其计算值小于左路台风的实测值;数值预报方法的计算值与左路台风的实测值拟合较好,但是,无论左路台风(实测值＞ 70 em)或中路台风,数值预报方法的计算值都小于实测值,而其它两路台风没有呈现规律性变化;两种预报方法结果检验,得出无论右路台风、中路台风、左路台风(实测值≤70 cm)或左路台风(实测值＞70cm)的风暴过程最大增水预报,经验预报方法计算结果均较好,尤其是对左路台风(实测值≤70 cm)的风暴潮预报.     

台风模型风场建立及其模式验证

对0814号台风进行了增水模拟,以及建立一个适合0814号台风类型的模型风场,用于将来的风暴潮模拟。文章使用香港天文台数据进行增水模拟验证,在模式未考虑气压、远程天气、径流等因素对增水作用下,模式将误差控制在20%以内,据已有研究结果表明,模式具有一定的准确性。在建立风场模型中,首先,通过对比已有圆对称风场模型,确认Dual模型更为合理;其次利用藤田公式对参数化流入角进行修正,对风场的流向与温度、强度建立联系,并讨论流入角度变化对增水影响;再次,通过叠加移动风场,获得右侧风速偏大的风场,以及讨论其对增水的影响;最后,尝试添加背景风场,并对比添加前后增水变化,发现最大增水点附近增水降低,而台风中心附近和外围区域增水增加。本文认为公式叠加背景风场更加合理,选取背景风场数据最好不包含台风信息。此风场的建立主要为研究南海风暴潮变化机理及后报做铺垫。     

宁波近海台风暴潮可能最大增水的数值模拟

浙江海洋经济飞速发展,突显了研究沿海地区台风暴潮等自然灾害的重要性.本研究采用无结构三角形网格有限体积海洋数值模型,模拟了宁波近海台风暴潮可能最大增水.首先选取0407号强台风“蒲公英”的增水过程进行宁波近海可能最大增水的后报分析,其结果与东海的4个地面台站水位资料相比显示后报结果的平均绝对误差为0.075 m,平均相对误差为1.32％.然后,利用该模式对1997 ～ 2012年期间影响宁波近海的15个典型台风进行了台风暴潮可能最大增水的后报,误差统计显示后报的水位平均绝对误差为0.160 m,相对误差为2.95％.最后,通过引入风暴潮集合预报技术,利用假想台风进行了预报试验,结果表明宁波近海台风暴潮的可能最高水位为7.735 m.这些研究结果可为宁波近海重点工程海域的风险评估与区划提供重要的参考.