山西2006年"4·11"强寒潮天气预报服务及冻害灾情评估

2006年4月11日,山西全省出现强寒潮天气,并伴有大范围雨雪,给部分地区造成严重冻害,直接经济损失达17亿之多。前期降水少、气温高、日照充足,致使中南部冬小麦拔节期提前。冷空气势力强大,降温急剧,是导致冻害发生的直接原因。山西各级气象部门对这次强寒潮天气进行了及时准确的预报、决策服务,取得了较为明显的社会和经济效益。今后,需进一步提高重大天气过程联防、监测、预警能力,提高预报、预测水平。     

Simulation experiment of sedimentary process and sedimentary architecture of alluvial fan under the control of normal faults

Normal fault structures are widely developed in basins and orogenic belts,which control the accommodation space and the distribution of sediments and thus affecting the morphology of alluvial fans. A flume tank experiment was carried to simulate and clarify the control of normal faults on the sedimentary process and internal architecture of alluvial fans.The results show that the large amount of sediments carried by debris flow tend to be unloaded near the hanging wall of faults and are subsequently reworked by traction current,which result in a triangular distributary gravel bar grows vertically on fault plane with the tip pointing to the source area. When the hydrodynamic force is strong,debris flow goes across distributary gravel bar and forms over-bar lobe at the tail of the distributary gravel bar. When the hydrodynamic force is weak,debris flow forms fault plane-dominated lobe along fault plane and is located on both sides of the distributary gravel bar. Under the control of normal faults and the barrier of distributary gravel bar,the unloading process of sediments varies greatly at different positions on the surface of alluvial fan. The particle size varies greatly among different facies,with coarsest grains developed on the fans of hanging wall,finer grained on over-bar lobe and finest sediments on fault plane-dominated lobe. The development process of alluvial fan can be divided into three stages,according to the sandbody thickness and fault throw of distributary gravel bar. The fault throw also affects the sedimentary architecture of alluvial fan,with larger the fault throw generating larger the accommodation space of hanging wall,longer development time of distributary gravel bar and more complex of the superposition pattern of the sand bodies inside the fan. The internal architecture of alluvial fan that is controlled by normal faults includes longitudinal sandbar,distributary gravel bar and debris flow lobe in the profile vertical perpendicular to the sediment source direction from the proximal to the distal end. Along sediment longitudinal section,composite channel,superimposed distributary gravel bar complex and superimposed bodies of multi-phased lobes are dominant facies.     

Autostratigraphic modelling of the growth of alluvial‐shelf systems during steady base‐level cycles: Two‐dimensional tank experiments

Autostratigraphy is the stratigraphy generated by large‐scale autogenesis, developed based on the full recognition of the non‐equilibrium behaviour of depositional systems in response to steady external forcing. The existing autostratigraphic concepts were derived mostly from studies of river deltas growing during a single rise or fall of base level (or relative sea level). The present study challenges to extend the autostratigraphic framework to the alluvial‐shelf system growing through steady base‐level cycles by two‐dimensional tank experiments. During each experimental run, the base level was changed symmetrically, wherein through cycles, the rise and fall had the same constant rate (|R_bl|) and period (T_bl), and thus the same constant amplitude (A_bl), but with no basin tectonism. In total, nine runs with different combinations of |R_bl| and A_bl were performed. The experimental results brought the following implications. (i) The shelf‐transiting active depositional system takes non‐equilibrium responses in earlier base‐level cycles, during each of which the system experiences episodes of degradation with base‐level fall. (ii) After the system has sufficiently grown through cycles, non‐equilibrium responses change into equilibrium responses, whereby the shelf‐transiting alluvial system, whether retrogradational or progradational, is free from degradation and continues to aggrade but with a gradually decreasing rate of aggradation. (iii) The alluvial topset river tentatively but autogenically attains a graded state during the falling limb of an intermediate cycle, which separates the earlier degradation‐inclusive and later aggradation‐sustainable cycles. (iv) The number (or duration) of cycles elapsed prior to this phase‐transition is linearly proportional to the amplitude (or the square of the period) of base‐level cycles, with a coefficient defined by the rates of base‐level change and sediment supply. Such a growth pattern does not necessarily hold when considering long‐term tectonic subsidence or uplift. These notions help to understand the stratigraphic architectures of natural alluvial‐shelf systems evolved through base level cycles.     

台湾附近海域超强台风南玛都期间风暴潮对海浪影响的数值研究

采用海浪模式(Simulating Waves Nearshore,SWAN)与风暴潮模式(Advanced Circulation Model,ADCIRC)的耦合模式,模拟研究了2011年第11号超强台风南玛都期间,风暴潮对海浪的影响。通过对比耦合模式和非耦合模式模拟结果,发现对于该超强台风过程,台风中心附近的大浪区内风暴潮对海浪有显著影响:在台风中心沿前进方向的右前方,风暴潮使海浪波高减小;在台风中心和台风中心的左后方,风暴潮使海浪波高增大。台风进入台湾海峡之前,风暴潮对海浪波高的最大影响为10%左右;进入台湾海峡后,受地形和潮汐潮流的影响,海浪波高受到的最大影响增大到25%左右。上述结果对台风期间的海浪模拟有一定参考价值。     

Optimisation of arrays of flap-type oscillating wave surge converters

In this paper a finite array of hinged flap-type wave energy converters are modelled using a mathematical approach. These are illustrative of the Oyster device of Aquamarine Power Ltd.¹ A novel semi-analytic solution method is presented for a set of boundary-value problems involving the scattering and radiation of waves by thin barriers used to model the device hydrodynamics. The approach makes use of the geometry to apply Fourier transforms, deriving non-singular integral equations in terms of the jumps in pressure across the flaps. These are then solved numerically using a highly efficient Galerkin expansion method. The focus of the results is on optimisation. We suggest optimal parameters for a single device, identifying flap length as crucial to device performance. This optimisation is then carried through to arrays with optimal arrangements and spacings being determined for a model sea state. Here, the lateral displacement of the devices emerges as a critical factor in optimal array configuration.     

Direct time domain analysis of floating structures with linear and nonlinear mooring stiffness in a 3D numerical wave tank

In this paper, motion response of a moored floating structure interacting with a large amplitude and steep incident wave field is studied using a coupled time domain solution scheme. Solution of the hydrodynamic boundary value problem is achieved using a three-dimensional numerical wave tank (3D NWT) approach based upon a form of Mixed-Eulerian–Lagrangian (MEL) scheme. In the developed method, nonlinearity arising due to incident wave as well as nonlinear hydrostatics is completely captured while the hydrodynamic interactions of radiation and diffraction are determined at every time step based on certain simplifying approximations. Mooring lines are modelled as linear as well as nonlinear springs. The horizontal tension for each individual mooring line is obtained from the nonlinear load-excursion plot of the lines computed using catenary theory, from which the linear and nonlinear line stiffness are determined. Motions of three realistic floating structures with different mooring systems are analyzed considering various combinations of linear and approximate nonlinear hydrodynamic load computations and linear/nonlinear mooring line stiffness. Results are discussed to bring out the influence and need for consideration of nonlinearities in the hydrodynamics and hydrostatics as well as the nonlinear modelling of the line stiffness.     

台风“凡亚比”在台湾海峡所引起风暴潮的数值模拟

基于FVCOM海洋模式,利用台风模型构造的风场作为大气强迫,模拟了台风凡亚比经过台湾海峡时引起的风暴潮过程。分析了水位、流场等要素对台风的响应。结果显示:模拟的风暴潮水位与实测水位吻合较好,误差较小,从侧面验证了近岸水位变化主要是局地风场造成;台风凡亚比造成台湾海峡大部分区域出现显著增水,大陆沿岸作为迎风区,增水最为明显,增水最大值达到2m以上,增水主要受到风场和地形的影响;表层风生流场与Ekman风生漂流特征一致;大陆沿岸风暴潮的先兆波振幅在20~30cm,余振阶段并不明显。台风造成的表层平均流方向在近岸平行于岸线,流速加强,在海峡中间形成非闭合逆时针流动,流向与跨越海峡过程中台风最强时的风场方向一致。     

渤海局部海域风暴潮漫滩计算模式──ADI干湿网格模式在渤海局部海域风暴潮漫滩计算中的应用

采用ＡＤＩ干湿网格模式和一种大小区嵌套式的数值计算格式，考虑了天文潮与风暴潮的非线性耦合效应，对渤海局部海域的风暴潮漫滩进行了数值模拟。模拟结果与实测结果符合良好，证实ＡＤＩ干湿网格模式对海湾风暴潮漫滩计算的可行性。指出ＡＤＩ干湿网格模式对预报淹水受灾范围具有应用价值。     

Neural network prediction of a storm surge

The occurrence of storm surge does not only destroy the resident's lives, but also cause the severe flooding in coastal areas. Therefore, accurate prediction of storm surge is an important task during the coming typhoon. Conventional numerical methods and experienced methods for storm surge prediction have been developed in the past, but it is still a complex ocean engineering problem which many factors, including the central pressure of typhoon, the speed of the typhoon, the heavy rainfall, coastal topography and local features influence the variation of storm surge. In fact, this problem is still a complex nonlinear relationship that can not solved efficiently by these two methods. Therefore, this paper presents an application of the neural network for forecasting the storm surge. The original data of Jiangjyun station in Taiwan will be used to test the performance of the present model. The results indicate that the neural network can be efficiently forecasted storm surge using the four input factors, including the wind velocity, wind direction, pressure and harmonic analysis tidal level.     

Fully nonlinear wave-body interactions with surface-piercing bodies

Fully nonlinear wave-body interactions for stationary surface-piercing single and double bodies are studied by a potential-theory-based fully nonlinear 2D numerical wave tank (NWT). The NWT was developed in time domain by using boundary element method (BEM) with constant panels. MEL free surface treatment and Runge–Kutta fourth-order time integration with smoothing scheme was used for free-surface time simulation. The acceleration-potential scheme is employed to obtain accurate time derivative of velocity potential. Using the steady part of nonlinear force time histories, mean and a series of higher-harmonic force components are calculated and compared with the experimental and numerical results of other researchers. The slow-decaying second-harmonic vertical forces are investigated with particle velocities and corresponding body pressure. Typical patterns of two-body interactions, shielding effect, and the pumping/sloshing modes of water column in various gap distances are investigated. The pumping mode in low frequencies is demonstrated by the comparison of velocity magnitudes.