中国近50年寒潮冷空气的时空特征及其与北极海冰的关系

利用中国具有较长时间序列的527个站点1961—2010年的日平均温度观测资料,美国国家环境预报中心和国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)再分析资料以及伊利莱诺斯大学的海冰密集度资料,分析了我国近50年来寒潮的时空变化及与其相联系的海冰和大气环流异常的关系。结果表明,中国寒潮冷空气活动频数存在两个主要模态,第一模态表现在中国北方冷空气活动频数呈年代际减少趋势,1980年之前寒潮冷空气频数偏多,1990年后寒潮冷空气频数偏少;第二模态表现为我国南方冷空气频数的年际振荡特征。第一模态寒潮冷空气频数的减少主要与全球变暖有关,北极海冰的减少使得1980年代后期北极涛动加强,并激发出欧亚遥相关波列进而影响我国的寒潮冷空气活动。第二模态则与近些年来夏季北极海冰的快速融化以及北极大气出现偶极子型环流异常有关,通过激发跨极型和类欧亚遥相关波列影响到后冬的中国南方寒潮冷空气活动增多。     

洋山港海域一次冷锋型温带风暴潮特征及各影响因子贡献的对比分析

本文研究了由2020年12月29日至31日强冷锋引起的影响洋山港海域的温带风暴潮过程。通过气象观测数据分析了其天气过程, 并利用FVCOM-SWAVE波浪-风暴潮耦合模式对该过程进行了高分辨率的数值模拟, 同时结合潮位站及浮标站观测数据对模拟结果进行了验证, 分析模拟了波浪、潮流、风暴增减水特征。结果发现, 该次冷锋型温带风暴潮过程主要表现为先短时风暴增水后出现长时间风暴减水的特征, 最大风暴减水可达65~70cm, 其主要诱因包括研究海域气压的快速升高并维持、长时间持续的偏北大风及波流相互作用。相关敏感试验研究了3种因子对风暴增减水位的贡献大小, 发现风暴增水峰值期间风场贡献占比约为90%, 海平面气压场约为5%; 风暴减水峰值期间, 海平面气压场的贡献度约占55%, 风场约占40%, 而波浪的贡献均不足10%。洋山港航道内风暴期间潮流流速最大可达到2.6~2.8m•s^-1, 落潮时为东南向离岸潮流, 涨潮时为西至西北方向的外海潮波传入潮流; 洋山港航道潮流始终是东南或西北向, 此处流速辐合, 是洋山海域流速最高的区域。     

基于证据理论的风暴潮灾害损失评估

本文提出了一种基于Dempster-Shafer证据理论的风暴潮灾害损失评估方法。鉴于风暴潮致灾过程中的不确定性, 选择合适的具有代表性指标(包括最大风暴潮增水、最大有效波高和防灾减灾能力)产生灾害损失评估的证据, 并根据所选指标和风暴潮直接经济损失之间的相关性大小确定证据权重, 最后采用改进的Murphy证据融合算法进行证据融合, 从而判断灾害损失等级。通过实证分析发现, 本文所提出的方法在判断风暴潮灾害损失等级上的正确率达到93.1%, 优于朴素贝叶斯、支持向量机、神经网络和决策树等常用方法, 同时本文方法计算简便, 且随着训练集样本量的增加, 损失评估结果可进一步精细化。     

基于FLUENT的波浪溢流水动力数值模拟

波浪溢流现象使得海堤受到了越浪和溢流的联合作用,复杂的水动力过程会引起海堤后坡产生严重的侵蚀破坏。基于FLUENT软件建立了二维数值波浪溢流水槽模型,该模型运用UDF速度边界造波法分析在不同超高条件下海堤后坡流量和水流厚度的水力学特性。结果表明数值模拟结果与前人物理模型试验结果吻合,该模型可以真实地模拟出海堤波浪溢流现象。在此基础上进一步研究了波浪溢流中越浪和溢流在不同相对超高条件下的主导性作用,而后建立了十分准确的波浪溢流海堤后坡稳定水流厚度计算公式。     

被高估的“海平面上升对珠江口风暴潮灾害评估影响”的原因探析

根据海洋与水文行业标准和规范、IPCC-AR4（政府间气候变化专门委员会第4次评估报告）对21世纪海平面上升量预估值,文章收集珠江口历史潮位数据和特大风暴潮灾害实际损失资料,对若干涉及珠江口风暴潮灾害的文章或评估报告进行了分析讨论,认为有些论著高估了海平面上升对珠江口风暴潮潮灾的影响;并着重分析风暴潮灾害被高估的原因：1）采用了不适合珠江三角洲的洪灾损失评估方法和计算参数,如对AAL/GDP采用线性关系,以GDP及AAL/GDP的比值反推AAL（年均洪灾经济损失）,使得造成的灾害损失被高估;2）将海平面上升数值直接与重现期潮位简单叠加的评估方法不科学;3）对2100年全球海平面上升量的预估值取值缺乏依据;4）对历史最高潮位的取值可能偏高。     

The influence of litho-stratification on the infiltrating water front in a granite terrain

Abstract

Under a sustainable groundwater development and quality management project over a semi-arid granite terrain, several rainwater harvesting structures were proposed based on geophysical investigations in the study area. In order to validate the site suitability and check the efficacy of the recommended recharge structures in terms of source sustainability, certain hydrological tests, such as infiltration studies, were conducted within the recharge area of these structures. Infiltration rate estimation using a double-ring infiltrometer normally results in an exponential decay relationship with high initial infiltration rate followed by gradual reduction until, ultimately, a stabilized rate is attained. In this paper, we present the results of infiltration tests conducted using a double-ring infiltrometer (under constant head condition) within the tank bed area of a proposed percolation tank site. The results showed unique features in the infiltration rate at different time intervals within the total experimental period: a staircase-like evolution with intermittent stabilization for a short duration. Based on the integrated approach of geophysical investigations, hydrological tests, and supported by physical evidence, the infiltration behaviour observed over the study area was considered to be due to the lithological stratification with different permeability and textural conditions.

Citation Andrade, R. & Muralidharan, D. (2011) The influence of litho-stratification on the infiltrating water front in a granite terrain. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 907–915.     

5000L中国南极科学考察油囊设计与应用

油料保障是南极内陆科学考察的主要任务之一,随着考察用油量的增加,使用油桶运输效率低、转运劳动强度大、空桶回收困难等问题越来越突出,用油囊能有效地解决这些问题。本文介绍了5 000 L中国南极科学考察油囊设计,包括容量确定、结构设计、材料选择和加工成形等等,新研制的油囊应用于中国南极昆仑站考察,结果表明,能够较好地解决油桶存在的问题,同时能够满足南极内陆考察严酷环境的使用要求。     

考虑桩土-隔震层-罐体相互作用的隔震储罐地震响应分析

为了研究桩土、隔震层与罐体相互作用对15×104m3隔震储罐地震响应的影响,桩与隔震层采用弹簧-阻尼单元,罐体采用壳单元,流体采用势流体单元,基于ADINA建立数值仿真分析模型,在8度E1 Centro地震动激励下,应用Newmark数值积分方法进行地震响应分析.结果表明:隔震储罐基底剪力和基底弯矩相对于非隔震储罐明显降低,储罐罐壁加速度沿罐壁高度方向近乎平动,但对波高的控制效果不明显;除罐壁顶部外,动液压力明显降低;隔震后,罐壁有效应力和环向应力减震效应明显,对轴向应力和径向应力影响较小,建议从安全角度考虑,储罐非隔震设计时不考虑桩土作用,隔震设计时考虑桩土对罐体的影响.     

Uncertain seas: probabilistic modeling of future coastal flood zones

ABSTRACT

Future sea-level rise will likely expand the inland extent of storm surge inundation and, in turn, increase the vulnerability of the people, properties and economies of coastal communities. Modeling future storm surge inundation enhanced by sea-level rise uses numerous data sources with inherent uncertainties. There is uncertainty in (1) hydrodynamic storm surge models, (2) future sea-level rise projections, and (3) topographic digital elevation models representing the height of the coastal land surface. This study implemented a Monte Carlo approach to incorporate the uncertainties of these data sources and model the future 1% flood zone extent in the Tottenville neighborhood of New York City (NYC) in a probabilistic, geographical information science (GIS) framework. Generated spatiotemporal statistical products indicate a range of possible future flood zone extents that results from the uncertainties of the data sources and from the terrain itself. Small changes in the modeled land and water heights within the estimated uncertainties of the data sources results in larger uncertainty in the future flood zone extent in low-lying areas with smaller terrain slope. An interactive web map, UncertainSeas.com, visualizes these statistical products and can inform coastal management policies to reduce the vulnerability of Tottenville, NYC to future coastal inundation.     

Oil viscosity limitation on dispersibility of crude oil under simulated at-sea conditions in a large wave tank

This study determined the limiting oil viscosity for chemical dispersion of oil spills under simulated sea conditions in the large outdoor wave tank at the US National Oil Spill Response Test Facility in New Jersey. Dispersant effectiveness tests were completed using crude oils with viscosities ranging from 67 to 40,100 cP at test temperature. Tests produced an effectiveness-viscosity curve with three phases when oil was treated with Corexit 9500 at a dispersant-to-oil ratio of 1:20. The oil viscosity that limited chemical dispersion under simulated at-sea conditions was in the range of 18,690 cP to 33,400 cP. Visual observations and measurements of oil concentrations and droplet size distributions in the water under treated and control slicks correlated well with direct measurements of effectiveness. The dispersant effectiveness versus oil viscosity relationship under simulated at sea conditions at Ohmsett was most similar to those from similar tests made using the Institut Francais du Pétrole and Exxon Dispersant Effectiveness (EXDET) test methods.