A numerical study of the effects of coastal geometry in the Bohai Sea on storm surges induced by cold-air outbreaks

Strom surges are not only determined by the atmospheric forcing,but also influenced by the coastal geometry and bathymetry.The Bohai Sea,as one of China’s marginal seas,is seriously harmed by storm surges,especially those caused by cold-air outbreaks.As the coastline of the Bohai Sea has changed evidently these years,storm surges may have new characteristics due to the changes in the local geometry.This paper aims to find out these new characteristics by primarily investigating the influence of the changes in the local geometry on storm surges with numerical methods.20 scenarios were constructed based on the track and inten-sity of the cold-air outbreaks to describe the actual situation.By analyzing the model results of the control scenarios,it is found that the main changes of the maximum surge elevation occur in the Bohai Bay and the Laizhou Bay.At the top of the Bohai Bay,the maximum surge elevation is obviously decreased,while in the Laizhou Bay,it is enhanced by the growing Yellow River Delta.This,however,does not suggest that the storm surges in the Laizhou Bay become more serious.A comparison of the risk assessment of storm surges in the Tanggu,Huanghua and Yangjiaogou regions shows that the risk of storm surges in these coastal areas is lightened by the evolvement of the coastal geometry.Particularly near Yangjiaogou,though the maximum surge elevation becomes higher to subject more areas to risk,the risk is still reduced by the evolvement of the Yellow River Delta.     

高阶晃动振型对LNG储罐地震响应的影响

为了研究高阶晃动振型对LNG储罐地震响应的影响,考虑高阶晃动振型,建立LNG储罐的简化力学模型,推导LNG储罐的运动控制方程,给出了LNG储罐的基底剪力、倾覆弯矩和储罐内液体晃动波高的表达式。以某16×10⁴ m³ LNG储罐为例,采用大型通用有限元分析软件ADINA System对其进行有限元模型分析,验证其修正模型的有效性,结果表明:高阶晃动振型对基底剪力和倾覆弯矩几乎无影响,但对晃动波高影响显著,尤其是长周期地震动作用下,并且考虑高阶晃动振型的晃动波高存在延时效应。提出的简化力学模型修正公式与有限元分析结果吻合较好,可以准确地预测LNG储罐地震响应。     

Automated facies identification by Direct Push-based sensing methods (CPT,HPT) and multivariate linear discriminant analysis to decipher geomorphological changes and storm surge impact on a medieval coastal landscape

In ad 1362, a major storm surge drowned wide areas of cultivated medieval marshland along the north-western coast of Germany and turned them into tidal flats. This study presents a new methodological approach for the reconstruction of changing coastal landscapes developed from a study site in the Wadden Sea of North Frisia. Initially, we deciphered long-term as well as event-related short-term geomorphological changes, using a geoscientific standard approach of vibracoring, analyses of sedimentary, geochemical and microfaunal palaeoenvironmental parameters and radiocarbon dating. In a next step, Direct Push (DP)-based Cone Penetration Testing (CPT) and the Hydraulic Profiling Tool (HPT) were applied at vibracore locations to obtain in situ high-resolution stratigraphic data. In a last step, multivariate linear discriminant analysis (LDA) was successfully applied to efficiently identify different sedimentary facies (e.g., fossil marsh or tidal flat deposits) from the CPT and HPT test dataset, to map the facies' lateral distribution, also in comparison to reflection seismic measurements and test their potential to interpolate the borehole and CPT/HPT data. The training dataset acquired for the key site from coring and DP sensing finally allows an automated facies classification of CPT/HPT data obtained elsewhere within the study area. The new methodological approach allowed a detailed reconstruction of the local coastal landscape development in the interplay of natural marsh formation, medieval land reclamation and storm surge-related land losses.     

基于阻尼器反力墙体系的特大型LNG储罐控制研究

特大型液化天然气（LNG）储罐的固有频率通常介于2~10 Hz之间,处于大部分地震运动的频率范围之内。在过去的几十年中,许多事故已经证明,储罐在地震作用下很容易遭破坏。使用隔震支座来减少储罐的地震作用已经被证明是非常有效的,但对于特大型LNG储罐,其连接组件对隔震层层间位移有严格限制,尤其是在软土场地中,桩水平抗力与隔震层位移是一对矛盾,普通隔震系统会在隔震层产生较大位移,导致特大型LNG储罐连接组件的设计非常困难。因此提出了一种由环形阻尼器反力墙、粘滞阻尼器以及安装于基桩顶端的隔震支座组成的新型隔震系统,反力墙独立设置于地基中,不与桩基连接,罐底的部分剪力直接向反力墙传递。以容量为16万m3的特大型LNG储罐为例,建立多自由度集中质量简化模型,以层间位移、桩基剪力作为性能指标进行了评价分析。结果显示,新型隔震系统对特大型LNG储罐隔震层位移及桩基剪力的控制非常有效。     

Assessment of Hurricane Ivan impact on chlorophyll-a in Pensacola Bay by MODIS 250 m remote sensing

The impact of Hurricane Ivan on water quality in Pensacola Bay was investigated by MODIS 250 m remote sensing of chlorophyll-a concentrations at different time slots before and after the hurricane event. Before the hurricane, the mean chlorophyll-a in the Bay was 5.3 μg/L. Heavy rainfall occurred during the hurricane landfall. The 48 h rainfall reached 40 cm and the peak storm surge reached 3 m on 9/16. After the rainstorm and during the storm surge on 9/17/2004, the mean chlorophyll-a concentration substantially increased to 14.7 μg/L. 26.3% water area was in the poor-water-quality condition (chl-a > 20 μg/L). This indicates that heavy nutrient loads from urban stormwater runoff and storm-surge inundation simulated chlorophyll bloom. After the end of the storm surge on 9/18/2004, the mean chlorophyll dropped to 2.0 μg/L, suggesting the effective flushing of polluted water from the bay to the Gulf of Mexico by the storm-surge. The good water quality condition lasted for almost several weeks after the storm surge. The peak river flow, arriving on the 4th day after the peak storm surge, did not alter the good water quality situation in the bay. This indicates that urban stormwater runoff rather than the river inflow is the major pollutant source for water quality in Pensacola Bay during the hurricane.     

近海水动力要素对入侵台风响应的FVCOM数值模拟研究

基于无结构三角网格和有限体积法的FVCOM区域海洋模式,建立了长江口、杭州湾三维典型风暴潮研究模型.首先对研究海域模拟的潮汐潮流要素进行验证和讨论,结果表明:该模式可较好的再现长江口杭州湾的水动力状况;其次统计并分析近年来影响长江口杭州湾海域的22个台风个例,归纳出两类直接入侵长江口、杭州湾并造成显著增减水的台风:正面...     

风暴潮灾害风险评估研究综述

我国是受风暴潮影响最严重的少数国家之一,风暴潮灾害致灾机理的研究在过去几十年取得了极大的进展,而风暴潮脆弱性评估和综合风险评估还不能满足风暴潮灾害风险管理的需求.系统总结了风暴潮危险性、脆弱性、综合风险评估及其应用的研究进展,重点分析了典型重现期风暴潮估计、可能最大风暴潮计算、风暴潮物理脆弱性和社会脆弱性评估以及风暴潮风险评估及其应用的研究进展及不足,并对我国风暴潮风险评估急需解决的问题以及未来的研究重点进行了展望,指出了风暴潮灾害风险评估的模型化、系统化、定量化是未来风暴潮风险评估研究的发展趋势,风暴潮灾害的未来风险评估还需考虑全球气候变化以及海平面上升等因素的影响,而风暴潮灾害承灾体脆弱性的定量评价是风暴潮综合风险评估的重点和难点.     

Track analysis and storm surge investigation of 2017 Typhoon Hato: were the warning signals issued in Macau and Hong Kong timed appropriately?

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the storm surge caused by Typhoon Hato, which severely affected Macau, Hong Kong, and other coastal cities in China on 23 August 2017. A typhoon and storm surge coupling model demonstrated that the maximum storm surge height reached nearly 2.5?m along the coast of Macau, while that in Hong Kong was slightly below 2?m. Furthermore, a field survey of urban flooding revealed evidence of a 2.25-m inundation in downtown Macau and a 0.55-m inundation on Lantau Island, Hong Kong, which were likely exacerbated by a combination of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and surface water runoff over a complex hilly terrain. Significant wave overtopping and runup also occurred in beach and port areas. A typhoon track analysis confirmed that several comparably strong typhoons have followed similar ESE to WNW trajectories and made landfall in the Pearl River Delta in the last few decades. Although Hato was not the strongest of these storms, its forward speed of about 32.5?km/h was remarkably faster than those of other comparable typhoons. Higher levels of storm signal warnings were issued earlier in Hong Kong than in Macau, raising questions about the appropriate timing of warnings in these two nearby areas. Our analysis of the storm’s pattern suggests that both regions’ decisions regarding signal issuance could be considered reasonable or at least cannot be simply blamed, given the rapid motion and intensification of Hato and the associated economic risks at stake.     

A1B气候情景下海平面变化对东中国海风暴潮的影响

用三维水动力模型Ecomsed,在第四次IPCC评估报告SRES A1B气候情景下,分析21世纪海平面变化对东中国海风暴潮及沿岸脆弱性的影响。在A1B气候情景海平面变化影响下,对17个台风个例进行模拟。结果表明:受海平面变化影响风暴潮增减水出现大概10 cm的变化,风暴潮增水提前,风暴潮增水时段延长;台风强度越大,海平面变化对风暴潮增水强度的影响越明显。海平面变化对海岸带脆弱性具有很大影响,苏北浅滩及环渤海海岸带脆弱性将增强,校核水位在东中国海将会增大。