杰氏风暴潮预报方法在珠海及粤西海域的应用

本文通过杰氏风暴潮预报方法对历史上给珠海和粤西海域造成较大影响的台风增水事件进行后报试验,并通过统计分析方法对原有的预报公式进行订正,总结出适合珠海及粤西海域的风暴潮预报公式.利用5a的时间对珠海及粤西海域的台风增水进行试报,结果表明预报准确率分别达95.0%和87.6%,尤其对一些增水较大、影响较严重的台风增水预报相对更加准确,预报准确率均达90.0%以上.这说明订正后的公式对珠海及粤西海域的风暴潮预报能得到较好的预报效果.     

地形变化对青岛地区风暴潮灾影响的一次模拟

本文以8509台风为例，模拟了因地形变化而对青岛地区风暴潮灾的影响。结果显示，如果胶州湾口外局部地形变深，在8509台风的情况下，风暴增水会造成一定程度的增加，而且对底层风暴潮流会造成更大的影响。     

基于放样原理的特种罐内测法容量计量技术

特种罐在能源的储备和运输中具有重要意义,在研究特种罐现有容量计量技术的基础上,自主创新提出了基于放样原理和测量机器人实现特种罐容量快速和精密计量的原理和方法。将特种罐容量计量转化为点位放样问题,较好地克服了全站仪现有测量技术的缺点,并利用软件实现了特种罐容量计量的数据采集、数据计算、数据修正和报表输出的一体化。通过实际测量数据,分析了该方法的测量精度和测量效率。     

A Bay–River Coupled Model for Storm Surge Prediction Along the Andhra Coast of India

The paper describes a two-dimensional bay–river coupled numerical model for storm surges along the Andhra coast of India. The effect of the Krishna and Godavari rivers on the surge development is analysed. A comparative study of the surge generated by a tropical cyclone with and without the inclusion of rivers is done in detail. Three cyclones that struck the Andhra coast in November 1977, May 1990 and November 1996 were used for the simulation studies. It is found that the idealized model without a river overestimates the sea-level elevation as compared to a more realistic bay–river coupled model. The temporal variation of surge values at the mouth of the rivers is also studied for all three cyclone cases. It is found that the effect of the presence of rivers depends on the strength of the cyclone, its point of landfall and the location of the rivers with respect to the landfall point.     

火山射气岩浆喷发作用研究进展

射气岩浆喷发是一种特殊类型的火山活动，水在这类火山活动中起到至关重要的作用，且其喷发产物——低平火山口和基浪堆积物在我国乃至全世界都有广泛的分布。国际上对射气岩浆喷发的研究始于1921年，迄今为止已有80余年的历史。国内外许多学者运用火山地质学、岩石学、沉积学、物理火山学及数值模拟等多学科研究手段，对射气岩浆喷发作用及其产物进行详细的野外观测描述，并探讨其成因机制。本文在前人研究基础上，以我国南方北部湾周边第四纪火山区大量存在的射气岩浆喷发成因的低平火山口和基浪堆积物为研究对象，深入讨论了基浪堆积物的地质特征、射气岩浆喷发形成的基本条件、喷发过程的动力学机制以及基浪流的搬运过程等几方面重要问题，并对已有的研究成果进行了概括和总结，提出有待解决的难点，揭示了这类火山活动特有的属性。     

Seismic analysis of base-isolated liquid storage tanks using the BE–FE–BE coupling technique

A three-dimensional soil–structure–liquid interaction problem is numerically simulated in order to analyze the dynamic behavior of a base-isolated liquid storage tank subjected to seismic ground motion. A dynamic analysis of a liquid storage tank is carried out using a hybrid formulation, which combines the finite shell elements for structures and the boundary elements for liquid and soil. The system is composed of three parts: the liquid–structure interaction part, the soil–foundation interaction part, and the base-isolation part. In the liquid–structure interaction part, the tank structure is modeled using the finite elements and the liquid is modeled using the internal boundary elements, which satisfy the free surface boundary condition. In the soil–foundation interaction part, the foundation is modeled using the finite elements and the half-space soil media are modeled using the external boundary elements, which satisfy the radiation condition in the infinite domain. Finally, above two parts are connected with the base-isolation system to solve the system's behavior. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the accuracy of the developed method, and an earthquake response analysis is carried out to demonstrate the applicability of the developed technique. The properties of a real LNG tank located in the west coast of Korea are used. The effects of the ground and the base-isolation system on the behavior of the tank are analyzed.     

Community Vulnerability to Tropical Cyclones: Cairns, 1996–2000

This paper is a partial discussion of a four-year study that investigated the vulnerability of the people living in the Cairns region to the tropical cyclone hazard. The longitudinal case study, focussing on the Cairns Northern Beaches area, was unique in that it included a social and societal `pre-cyclone impact' evaluation of various resident communities within the region, and then two consecutive `post-cyclone impact' studies. The primary research method supported an inductive qualitative approach to the collection and analysis of survey data. Some quantitative methods were invoked to support qualitative research findings. Survey data was collected in five separate questionnaire-based social surveys that were administered between 1996 and 2000. During the study, residents experiencedthe direct impact of two land-falling tropical cyclones. In addition to this, targeted andfocussed tropical cyclone awareness education was made increasingly available withinthe community. The social and demographic attributes that influence the individual'sperception of risk and contribute to our understanding of community vulnerability were examined and evaluated. Changes in the residents' attitudes, cyclone preparednessbehaviours and willingness to respond to cyclone warnings were monitored and measured. Analysis of early survey data indicated that community residents generally had some knowledge of cyclones but a limited understanding of cyclone processes and very little direct personal experience of the cyclone hazard. Individually and collectively, residents frequently demonstrated a biased perception of the risks associated with cyclones. The resident community was shown to be fragmented, with limited support being available to individual households. Initially, residents were found to be poorly prepared for cyclones and unlikely to respond to warnings appropriately. It appeared that, in the event of a land-falling tropical cyclone impacting the area, the community was highly vulnerable to unnecessary loss of property, livelihood and – in extreme circumstances – life. By 2000, Cairns community residents were somewhat better informed about cyclones and certainly more experienced. This paper provides some insight into how cyclone experience and education may synergisticly have contributed to a change in risk perceptions and a reduction in the vulnerability of Cairns residents to the tropical cyclone and storm surge hazards.     

软粘土层上的油罐差异沉降

根据某一大型油罐软基加固处理工程方案设计和优选需要,按照离心模型相似律,开展了三组模型试验,分别模拟了天然地基、土工合成材料袋装碎石垫层和既在填土层中设置袋装碎石垫层又在淤泥质粘土层设置土工合成材料排水板三种情况,以研究这一加固布置形式对减小高压缩性软土层地基上油罐罐底的差异沉降效果反应。模型油罐地基采用原型土重塑制备,现场土工合成材料袋装碎石采用柔性机织玻璃纤维细管塞装粗砂条模拟,并在不停机运转条件下模拟了多次充放水预压加载。试验结果表明,油罐软弱地基经土工合成材料袋装碎石加固后,罐底总沉降值和差异沉降值均明显小于天然地基情形下对应的沉降值,罐底畸变得到显著减小,就本文所述的土质条件、土层厚度和预压荷载强度,地基经加固处理后,油罐罐底畸变减小了近50 %。最后就土工合成材料在加固油罐地基布置形式的合理性进行了初步探讨。     

实验速度场测量技术及对流边界层特征研究

在对流槽中对对流边界层(CBL)温度场实验研究的基础上,进一步尝试通过实验技术测量速度场并分析研究CBL中的速度场特征。在应用PIV测量技术时选用铝粉作示踪粒子。实验证明了在混合层中速度分布明显具有对流边界层热泡特性;混合层顶部的速度分布很好地反应出夹卷层的结构特征;湍流速度特征量的垂直分布合理,与野外实测结果和类似的对流槽实验结果接近;误差分析表明示踪粒子的跟随性良好,粒子速度的测量结果能真实地反应流体的运动特征,从而得证了分析结果的可靠性。     

澳大利亚东南部持续性降水的成因

利用热带天气图，日本ＧＭＳ卫星云图，ＥＣＭＷＦ格点风场资料，对澳大利亚东南部持续性降水的两类主要天气过程，热带云涌－冷锋尾流气旋锋生过程和阻塞反气旋北侧回流降水过程进行了分析，从云型演变，环流形热，热带流场等方面揭示了澳大利亚东南部持续性降水天气过程的基本特征、为业务预报提供参考。