体感温度客观分析方法研究

影响人体体感温度的气象要素主要包括温度、湿度、风以及太阳辐射,依据这些气象要素影响人体体感温度的原理,确定了平均气温与体感温度相同时的临界相对湿度、风速及太阳辐射值.以全国有水平面直接辐射曝辐量观测项目的77个气象台站的历年逐日4次定时观测资料为基础,把相邻两个白昼(夜间)的气温差作为因变量,相对湿度差、风速差、垂直辐射差(白昼)作为自变量,以旬为时问分辨率,建立了逐旬多元回归方程.各地所建立的逐句多元线性拟合方程拟合优度相当高,F统计量检验也充分证明线性回归方程总体成立,从气候意义、统计角度来看该方法都具有充分的可行性.     

基于深度学习的太阳F_10.7辐射通量的短期预报研究

F_10.7太阳辐射通量作为输入参数被广泛运用于大气经验模型、电离层模型等空间环境模型,其预报精度直接影响航天器轨道预报精度.采用时间序列法统计了太阳辐射通量F10.7指数和太阳黑子数(SSN)的关系,给出了两者之间的线性关系,在此基础上提出了一种基于长短时记忆神经网络(Long and Short Term Memory,LSTM)的预报方法,方法结合了54 d太阳辐射通量指数和SSN历史数据来对F_10.7进行未来7 d短期预报,并与其他预报方法的预报结果进行了比较,结果表明:(1)所建短期预报7 d方法模型的性能优于美国空间天气预报中心(Space Weather Prediction Center, SWPC)的方法,预测值和观测值的相关系数(CC)达到0.96,同时其均方根误差约为11.62个太阳辐射通量单位(sfu),预报结果的均方根误差(RMSE)低于SWPC,下降约11%;(2)对预测的23、24周太阳活动年结果统计表明,太阳活动高年的第7 d F10.7指数预报平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)最优可达12.9%以内,低年最优可达2...     

估算有中子星作伴星的黑洞质量

在本文中，我们讨论了由中子星和黑洞构成的密近双星系统的引力效应。首先，我们清楚地解释了引力辐射存在引起的轨道圆化，并估算了圆化的时间尺度。求解了围绕史瓦西黑洞作圆轨道运动的矢量进动方程，得到了一个精确解。由进动周期和中心黑洞的质量的关系，我们得到了估算中子星伴随的黑洞质量的方法。随后我们讨论了以中子星脉冲信号随自旋进动变化来寻找黑洞的方法。     

STUDY ON ~(210) Po IN MARINE ORGANISMS IN NORTH CHINA WATERS

INTRODUCTIONWiththedevelopmentofcoastalnuclearpowerandmarinenuclearestablishments,peoplepaymoreandmoreattentiontothedistribution ,behaviorandpathwaysofsomeman maderadionuclidesinmarineenvironment.Thedischargedartificialradionuclidesoverlieabackgroundofnaturallyoccurringradionu clideswhicheitheralreadyexistedinmarineenvironmentorwasenhancedbysomeotherhumanactivi ties.Goodunderstandingofsomeman incurredradionuclides’impactsonpeopleandmarineorganismsrequiresknowledgeofsomecriticalnaturalradi…     

中国太阳能热发电站选址模型研究

太阳能热发电技术在我国新世纪能源战略中具有重要地位,太阳能热发电电站位置的合理选择对发电成本有直接影响,涉及到太阳能热发电技术本身、高时空分辨率的太阳能法直辐射分布、土地利用分布、水资源分布、社会经济分布,以及政策税收等众多因素。本文提出了一个太阳能热发电站选址的决策支持系统框架,就其中的太阳能直法辐射调查进行了初步试验。本文依据供需时空平衡原则进一步讨论了多种绿色能源互补的大能源系统运筹问题。     

Radiation pressure — a stabilizing agent of dust clouds in comets?

The internal dynamics of an illuminated dust cloud of finite optical thickness is investigated. The dependence of the radiation pressure on the optical depth makes the individual particles oscillate, in one dimension, around the accelerated centre of gravity of the cloud. The cloud moves as an entity, irrespectively of the velocity dispersion of the particles and their efficiency for radiation pressure. If the optical depth does not change, i.e. if the cloud does not expand laterally, its lifetime is unlimited. A contraction caused by energy dissipation in mechanical collissions between the dust particles is expected. The range of particle sizes which can be transported by such a “coherent cloud” is estimated, as well as the acceleration of the whole cloud. The structure of the cloud in real space and in velocity space is investigated. A comparison with the “striae” observed in the dust tails of great comets shows that the parent clouds of these striae may have been of the kind considered.     

一种研究城市化发展的新方法

以南京市1988年TM影像为信息源,组合影像4、5波段得到建筑用地指数(NDBI),采用决策树分类方法对NDBI进行修正,分类提取建筑用地;对照TM影像修改误分的地块后转化为栅格数据,生成50×50个像元大小的格网,统计每个格网单元内的建筑用地率,将该值赋给各个格网单元的几何中心点;采用距离倒数方法由点数据插值得出整个影像范围内的建筑用地区域分异情况,进而反映出不同建筑用地率的辐射影响范围。该方法可定量提取不同建筑用地率的辐射边界,有助于根据单张影像数据分析城市的扩张趋势,可在一定程度上预测城市的发展;对于需要跨江发展的城市(如南京),该方法可以辅助桥梁等过江通道的选址。     

辽宁太阳紫外线辐射特征及强度预报

利用紫外线观测仪器对辽宁4个地区紫外线辐射强度进行观测,研究了辽宁地区紫外线辐射强度的变化特征;分析了影响到达地面紫外线辐射强度的因子,结合MM5数值模式建立了统计预测模型,建立了紫外线辐射强度分级标准和对人体健康影响的对应关系。结果表明:辽宁地区的紫外线辐射强度,总体上是西、北部较东、南部稍强,但相差不大;紫外线辐射强度具有明显的季节变化,夏季最大、冬季最小。每年5～9月紫外线强度维持在一个较高的水平,日最大值出现在每日的11～14时。夏季紫外线对人体的影响最大,冬季基本无影响。云量的变化对紫外线强度的影响较大。紫外线辐射强度预报模型的预测结果较为理想。     

Impacts of Aerosol-Radiation Interactions on the Wintertime Particulate Pollution under Different Synoptic Patterns in the Guanzhong Basin,China

The effects of aerosol–radiation interactions(ARI) are not only important for regional and global climate, but they can also drive particulate matter(PM) pollution. In this study, the ARI contribution to the near-surface fine PM(PM2.5)concentrations in the Guanzhong Basin(GZB) is evaluated under four unfavorable synoptic patterns, including "northlow", "transition", "southeast-trough", and "inland-high", based on WRF-Chem model simulations of a persistent heavy PM pollution episode in January 2019. Simulations show that ARI consistently decreases both solar radiation reaching down to the surface(SWDOWN) and surface temperature(TSFC), which then reduces wind speed, induces sinking motion,and influences cloud formation in the GZB. However, large differences under the four synoptic patterns still exist. The average reductions of SWDOWN and daytime TSFC in the GZB range from 15.2% and 1.04°C in the case of the"transition" pattern to 26.7% and 1.69°C in the case of the "north-low" pattern, respectively. Furthermore, ARI suppresses the development of the planetary boundary layer(PBL), with the decrease of PBL height(PBLH) varying from 18.7% in the case of the "transition" pattern to 32.0% in the case of the "north-low" pattern. The increase of daytime near-surface PM2.5 in the GZB due to ARI is 12.0%, 8.1%, 9.5%, and 9.7% under the four synoptic patterns, respectively. Ensemble analyses also reveal that when near-surface PM2.5 concentrations are low, ARI tends to lower PM2.5 concentrations with decreased PBLH, which is caused by enhanced divergence or a transition from divergence to convergence in an area. ARI contributes 15%–25% toward the near-surface PM2.5 concentrations during the severe PM pollution period under the four synoptic patterns.     

The strain‐dependent spatial evolution of garnet in a high‐P ductile shear zone from the Western Gneiss Region (Norway): a synchrotron X‐ray microtomography study

Reaction and deformation microfabrics provide key information to understand the thermodynamic and kinetic controls of tectono‐metamorphic processes, however, they are usually analysed in two dimensions, omitting important information regarding the third spatial dimension. We applied synchrotron‐based X‐ray microtomography to document the evolution of a pristine olivine gabbro into a deformed omphacite–garnet eclogite in four dimensions, where the 4^th dimension is represented by the degree of strain. In the investigated samples, which cover a strain gradient into a shear zone from the Western Gneiss Region (Norway), we focused on the spatial transformation of garnet coronas into elongated garnet clusters with increasing strain. The microtomographic data allowed quantification of garnet volume, shape and spatial arrangement evolution with increasing strain. The microtomographic observations were combined with light microscope and backscatter electron images as well as electron microprobe (EMPA) and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) analysis to correlate mineral composition and orientation data with the X‐ray absorption signal of the same mineral grains. With increasing deformation, the garnet volume almost triples. In the low‐strain domain, garnet grains form a well interconnected large garnet aggregate that develops throughout the entire sample. We also observed that garnet coronas in the gabbros never completely encapsulate olivine grains. In the most highly deformed eclogites, the oblate shapes of garnet clusters reflect a deformational origin of the microfabrics. We interpret the aligned garnet aggregates to direct synkinematic fluid flow, and consequently influence the transport of dissolved chemical components. EBSD analyses reveal that garnet shows a near‐random crystal preferred orientation that testifies no evidence for crystal plasticity. There is, however evidence for minor fracturing, neo‐nucleation and overgrowth. Microprobe chemical analysis revealed that garnet compositions progressively equilibrate to eclogite facies, becoming more almandine‐rich. We interpret these observations as pointing to a mechanical disintegration of the garnet coronas during strain localization, and their rearrangement into individual garnet clusters through a combination of garnet coalescence and overgrowth while the rock was deforming.