浅谈我国的地质灾害风险评估

针对我国地质灾害风险评估研究现状,着重讨论了对我国地质灾害风险评估的理解,提出了中国地质灾害风险评估为灾害体易发性、承灾体的易损性、这两者耦合关系评估的结构组成及结构公式,并根据其研究对象、内容、目的等方面情况提出了地质灾害风险评估的完整概念。     

基于专家经验值的滑坡易发性评价——以四川平武高坪铺库区为例

滑坡灾害的易发性评价方法和模型有很多,不同的学者又对其进行了不同的改进,形成了不同的方法。究竟哪种方法更好,还需要结合实际进行方法的比较分析。论文应用基于专家经验值的二元统计法分析了四川平武高坪铺库区(约32 km2)高程、岩性、与居民点距离、与河流距离、坡度和坡向6种因素对滑坡灾害影响,并在此基础上进行了滑坡易发性评价。     

基于深度学习的滑坡灾害易发性分析

滑坡灾害成因机理复杂、影响因素众多,深度学习作为当前人工智能领域的热点,能够更好地模拟滑坡灾害的形成并准确预测潜在的斜坡。为了挖掘深度学习在滑坡易发性的应用潜能,本文构建了一维、二维和三维的滑坡数据表达形式,并提出3种基于卷积神经网络模型（Convolutional Neural Networks, CNN）的滑坡易发性分析处理框架：基于CNN分类器、基于CNN与逻辑回归的融合和基于CNN集成,最后以江西省铅山县为研究对象进行验证,结果表明：所有基于CNN的易发性模型都能够获得准确且可靠的滑坡易发性分析结果。其中,基于二维数据的CNN模型在所有单分类器中预测精度最高,为78.95%。此外,二维CNN特征提取能够显著提升逻辑回归的预测精度,其准确率提升7.9%。最后,异质集成策略能够大幅度提升基于CNN分类器的滑坡预测精度,其准确率提升4.35%~8.78%。     

内蒙古中部地区岩矿石磁化率特征

为了解内蒙古中部的锡林浩特、巴林左旗等地区岩矿石磁性特征,更好地对该地区的航磁异常进行综合解释,使用航遥中心研制的ZH-1磁化率仪,于2009~2011年间先后四次在该地区进行了野外岩矿石磁化率实测。并在统计、分析实测磁化率数据的基础上,研究了该地区岩矿石磁化率分布情况,分别叙述了区内沉积岩、侵入岩、火山岩、变质岩、矿石及围岩等各种类型岩矿石的磁化率特征,对岩矿石磁化率与航磁、矿产间的联系进行探讨,为磁法勘查解释、地质找矿提供了重要依据。     

人工神经网络和决策树模型在滑坡易发性分析中的性能对比

机器学习模型广泛应用于区域性滑坡易发性分析。模型的选择关系到评价结果的可信度、准确率和稳定性。现有滑坡易发性分析模型对比研究侧重模型的预测精度。模型的稳定性和数据量敏感性对机器学习模型的性能评估同样非常重要。本文以福建省南平市蔡源流域为研究区,以四川省绵阳市北川县为验证区,从预测精度、稳定性和数据量敏感性3个方面深入对比BP（Back Propagation）人工神经网络模型和CART（Classification and Regression Tree）决策树模型在滑坡易发性分析中的效果,主要结论如下:① 在逐渐增加一定数量训练样本的过程中,BP人工神经网络模型预测精度的增长率更高。在蔡源流域内,当训练样本数量增加10 000时,BP人工神经网络模型的预测精度上升5.22%,CART决策树模型的预测精度上升2.11%。② BP人工神经网络的预测精度高于CART决策树模型,且较为稳定。在100组数据集上,BP人工神经网络模型验证集预测精度的均值和验证集滑坡样本预测精度的均值分别为81.60%和84.86%,高于CART决策树模型的72.97%和76.59%。与此同时,BP人工神经网络模型对应预测精度的标准差分别是0.32%和0.37%,小于CART决策树模型的0.35%和0.67%。③ BP人工神经网络模型分析的滑坡易发区相比CART决策树模型,更接近实际滑坡的空间分布。最后,北川县的验证实验也出现了相同的现象。     

Climatic implications of loess deposits from the Beijing region

Variations in magnetostratigraphy, pedostratigraphy, grain size and magnetic susceptibility of the loess deposits near Beijing have been studied at two sections. The sections are about 400 km east of the main loess deposits in China, have a maximum thickness of 100 m and extend back to 1.1 Ma. The sequence consists of 14 loess–palaeosol couplets (S0‐S14), which correlate well with sequences in the Loess Plateau. Susceptibility records from the sites near Beijing are comparable to the Xifeng, Luochuan and Baoji sections located in the middle part of the Loess Plateau; however, the down‐core variations in the grain size in the Upper Lishi Formation exhibit some differences. The median grain size increases by about 25–30 µm from L4 to L2, with the sandy grains (>63 µm) increasing from 10–20 wt% to 40–50 wt% . This implies that the depositional environment of the dust sources in the Beijing loess section is different in some aspects from the Loess Plateau. The Beijing loess may have had a different dust source than the Loess Plateau. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于GIS和层次分析法的沙溪流域滑坡地质灾害易发性评价

滑坡是沙溪流域主要地质灾害类型之一,开展滑坡灾害易发性评价可为区域地质灾害防治提供数据基础和决策依据。通过沙溪流域生态地质调查,分析了滑坡灾害分布规律和影响因素之间的关系,选取岩性建造、地貌、坡度、坡向、降雨量、距河流距离和距断层距离7项指标,利用层次分析法及地理信息系统空间分析技术,开展沙溪流域滑坡地质灾害易发性评价。结果显示: 沙溪流域滑坡易发性影响因子依次为岩性建造、多年年均降水量、地形地貌、坡度、距河流距离、距断层距离和坡向; 沙溪流域滑坡灾害易发性与坡度、岩性建造、年均降水量表现出明显正相关,即坡度越大、岩性建造性质越软弱、越易风化,年均降水量越多,越易引发滑坡灾害; 滑坡灾害易发性与断裂构造、河流距离与滑坡灾害易发性呈负相关,即距离越近越容易诱发地质灾害; 流域整体以低易发区和极低易发区为主,高易发区主要分布在沙溪流域中南部、东部及东北部地区。这为沙溪流域地质灾害防治提供了基础数据和决策依据。     

国道213汶川—松潘段滑坡隐患遥感识别与易发性评价

国道213汶川—松潘段位于强震山区,滑坡灾害频发,每年都会因滑坡灾害导致交通中断,迫切需要查明沿线滑坡隐患的空间分布,并对其易发性进行评价。利用光学遥感和InSAR综合遥感技术对沿线滑坡隐患进行识别,共识别滑坡隐患288处,其中InSAR探测出有形变的滑坡隐患点27处。以识别出的滑坡隐患为评价样本,选取高程、坡度、坡向、地表曲率、工程地质岩组、归一化植被指数(normalizied difference vegetation index,NDVI)、距道路距离、距河流距离、距断层距离等9个影响因素作为评价因子,采用Logistic回归模型评价该沿线滑坡隐患易发性,评价结果可为国道213汶川—松潘段滑坡灾害防治提供参考。     

The anisotropy of loess magnetic susceptibility in the northeastern fringe of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau as an indicator of palaeowind direction

Estimates of the palaeo-subaerial wind direction were studied systematically for the first time by using the anisotropy of loess magnetic susceptibility (AMS) measurements in the northwestern China. One hundred and forty undisturbed oriented aeolian loess samples were collected from Lanzhou, Linxia and Wudu areas for AMS measurements, which indicated the subaerial wind directions were not the same while the loess deposited. From the Early Pleistocene to Middle Pleistocene till Late Pleistocene, the wind direction experienced an anticlockwise rotation in the studied area. We suggested this change was related to the uplift of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and the adjustment of current and landform effects.     

Contribution of domain rotation to the magnetic susceptibility of spherical two-domain particles of magnetite

Summary. Starting with a simplified picture of the presumed magnetization configuration in a two-domain sphere of magnetite, the initial susceptibility due to rotation of the magnetization in the domains has been calculated. In particles between 100 and 300 nm in diameter the calculated susceptibility for randomly oriented particles drops rapidly from about 6 to a little over 3, which is the value to be expected for large multidomain particles. The results agree well with the available experimental results and imply that in magnetite particles in this size range the low field susceptibility is dominated by the domain rotation and that wall motion is effectively inhibited.