河南省短期区域性暴雨动力诊断及综合预报方案

介介绍了（１）用Ｔ６３数值预报产品对河南省省６－８月区域性暴雨进行物理量诊断分析。（２）用人工智能研制的河南省６－８月分片大－暴雨短短期自动化预报系统与用Ｔ６３数值预报产品资料采用逐步回归分析法和预测误差平方和最不上准则两种选取回归自变量的方法，建立处分片预报方程的综合判别预报。（３）在１９９５，１９９６年７－８月业务预报中试验结果。     

山谷冰川稳定态时积累区面积比率研究

探讨山谷冰川稳定状态时积累区面积比率，即ＡＡＲ值的大小，认为冰川物质平衡高程分布，平面形态及坡面坡度沿程变化形式是影响山谷冰川稳定态ＡＡＲ值的主要因素，并 山谷冰川稳定态ＡＡＲ值与物质平衡高程分布及平面形态之间的定量关系。山谷冰川适合于应用ＡＲ值法来研究古冰川的零平衡线高程。     

大连市滨海河谷地下水资源开发利用的可行性

大连市是我国严重缺水地区之一 ,至 2 0 0 5年城市缺水为 110 4 2 .5× 10 4m3 ,占需水量的 17.1% ,其中大连城区 (金州以南地区 )缺水 9890× 10 4m3 ,占缺水量的 89.6 %。开发利用滨海河谷地下水资源 ,建立滨海河谷型地下水库 ,不仅可以治理大连地区严重的海水入侵问题 ,增加水资源量 ,满足当地农业及生活用水 ,同时可弥补城市供水的不足。根据前人工作成果分析及野外实地勘查 ,大连市适于建设河谷型地下水库的滨海河谷有 2 2条 ,建成后的总库容量 10 36 0 2 .9× 10 4m3 ,开采资源量 2 5 76 6 .88× 10 4m3 ,可增加开采资源量 12 5 4 2 .4 5× 10 4m3 。     

晚更新世晚期以来的长江上游古洪水记录

长江上游三峡河段主要的古洪水记录有:1)三峡深槽的蚀积变化;2)长江阶地粗粒沉积;3)长江的泛滥沉积;4)长江的古洪水平流沉积。不同时间跨度不同类型古洪水记录的精度有较大的差别。古洪水记录显示,晚更新世晚期的40～30kaB.P.,长江上游大洪水比30kaB.P.以来的长江上游大洪水大得多;全新世以来,以3983aB.P.前后的大洪水为相对最大;公元1870年大洪水为3000aB.P.以来最大洪水;近百年来的实测洪水以公元1981年洪水为最大。     

Variations of U and Sr isotope ratios in Alsace and Luxembourg rain waters: origin and hydrogeochemical implications

Major and trace element concentrations, as well as Sr and U isotope ratios, were measured in rainwater samples collected in three different locations in Alsace (East of France) and Luxembourg: a mid-altitude mountain site (Aubure Environment HydroGeochemical Observatory), an urban site (Strasbourg) and a peri-urban site located in an area of well developed industrial activity (Esch-sur-Alzette in Luxembourg). Results highlight the quite high spatial and temporal variability of the chemical and isotopic characteristics of rainwater at the regional scale. They also suggest a quite systematic contribution of a local component in the chemical composition of rainwater. In urban and peri-urban sites, the local component is certainly linked to human activities, as it is well illustrated in this study with the Esch-sur-Alzette samples. On the other hand, for the Aubure site, i.e. a small forested watershed of mid-altitude mountain, data presented in this study demonstrate the influence of the vegetation on the chemical composition of rainwater for alkali and calc-alkali elements, as well as for the Sr isotope ratios. Such a result questions the reliability of the method classically used to estimate the rainwater contribution on the river chemical budget. In addition, data of the present study confirm the very low content of uranium in rainwater and demonstrate, especially through the U isotope analysis of Aubure rainwater, the negligible effect of rainwater on U budget of river waters. This work thus outlines the property of U to be a geochemical tracer specific of weathering fluxes carried by rivers. To cite this article: F. Chabaux et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Understanding the relative impacts of natural processes and human activities on the hydrology of the Central Rift Valley lakes,East Africa

Significant changes have been observed in the hydrology of Central Rift Valley (CRV) lakes in Ethiopia, East Africa as a result of both natural processes and human activities during the past three decades. This study applied an integrated approach (remote sensing, hydrologic modelling, and statistical analysis) to understand the relative effects of natural processes and human activities over a sparsely gauged CRV basin. Lake storage estimates were calculated from a hydrologic model constructed without inputs from human impacts such as water abstraction and compared with satellite‐based (observed) lake storage measurements to characterize the magnitude of human‐induced impacts. A non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test was used to detect the presence of climatic trends (e.g. a decreasing or increasing trends in precipitation), while the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) analysis was used to assess the long‐term, inter‐annual climate variability within the basin. Results indicate human activities (e.g. abstraction) significantly contributed to the changes in the hydrology of the lakes, while no statistically significant climatic trend was seen in the basin, however inter‐annual natural climate variability, extreme dryness, and prolonged drought has negatively affected the lakes. The relative contributions of natural and human‐induced impacts on the lakes were quantified and evaluated by comparing hydrographs of the CRV lakes. Lake Abiyata has lost ~6.5 m in total lake height between 1985 and 2006, 70% (~4.5 m) of the loss has been attributed to human‐induced causes, whereas the remaining 30% is related to natural climate variability. The relative impact analysis utilized in this study could potentially be used to better plan and create effective water‐management practices in the basin and demonstrates the utility of this integrated methodology for similar studies assessing the relative natural and human‐induced impacts on lakes in data sparse areas. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2007年夏季江淮强降水过程中10~30d低频变化及其与对流层上层波包活动的联系

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析和全国740站逐日降水资料,运用一点滞后相关等方法,对2007年夏季江淮流域强降水期间低频振荡的波动活动特征及其与降水低频变化的联系进行了分析。结果表明,在2007年夏季降水中,降水低频分量起着重要作用。降水的低频振荡主周期为10~30d,降水距平时间序列与10~30d低频分量具有较好的对应关系。低频扰动在对流层上层和低层都呈现波列状分布,且在降水活跃位相时,低频环流在高、低层具有斜压结构。在对流层上层,低频扰动有缓慢的东移倾向,相速度为每天2~3个经度。西风带中存在多次移动性波列向下游的传播,且在120°E以西以每天14经度的群速度向下游频散能量,表明10~30d低频波动具有明显的下游发展特征。在强降水开始5d前,低频波动与能量可起源于高纬的乌拉尔山附近,沿着西北-东南向的路径向下游传播。下游发展的低频波动为江淮流域带来了能量,为强降水的发生提供了条件。这些结果加深了人们对低频波动在江淮流域强降水过程中所起作用的认识,可为寻找江淮流域强降水过程预报线索提供科学依据。     

日照市河谷平原区成井方法对比研究

在分析日照河谷平原区水文地质条件的基础上,通过大量抽水试验数据,对比分析研究了当地民井与本次施工水井成井方法的差异,指出了当地民井在成井方法上的不足和缺陷,并提出了适宜该区的成井方法建议。