沁水煤田15号煤中氟的赋存状态及其沉积环境分析

氟是煤中有害元素之一,燃煤型氟排放造成的污染已经对人类的健康安全构成威胁。研究煤中氟赋存状态及其沉积环境,对掌握高氟煤分布规律及控制燃煤造成的氟排放具有重要意义。通过对沁水煤田内6座煤矿15号煤样品的分析发现:煤中氟含量与灰分显著相关,与黄铁矿硫、有机硫无相关关系,表明煤中氟主要以无机物形式赋存,且与含硫矿物无关;与钾、镁、硅、铝等元素含量具有显著的相关关系,表明氟有可能的主要赋存形式为金云母、氟金云母等矿物,以及以吸附存在于高岭石、勃姆石、伊蒙混层等黏土矿物中;与钙、磷元素含量无显著相关性,表明氟不以氟磷灰石、含氟羟基磷灰石等矿物大量赋存。此外,通过对沁水煤田15号煤的沉积环境分析发现,弱还原环境、较低盐度、偏酸性、较强的水动力条件有利于该区域煤中氟的富集。     

地震活动性总体参量Rt在东南沿海地震带西段地震预测中的应用

分析了1974年以来东南沿海地震带西段发生的MS≥4.9级地震前地震活动性总体状态参量Rt的变化特点,同时对Rt值在东南沿海地震带西段的地震预测效能进行了检验评估。结果表明,当Rt>0.82时,表明东南沿海地震带西段地震活动状态比较正常,发生4.9级以上地震的概率较低;反之,当Rt≤0.82时,则表明东南沿海地震带西段地震活动比较活跃,发生4.9级以上地震的概率较大。     

Econometric analysis to differentiate effects of various ship safety inspections

This article provides a refined technique to measure and interpret variables associated with the quality of an inspection—be it port state control or vetting inspections towards the probability of a very serious, serious or less serious casualty. It concentrates on filtering out the effect of variables such as detention, the port state control regime that inspected the vessel, time in-between inspections, deficiencies found during an inspection and the effect of vetting inspections. The consensus amongst policy makers in the shipping industry is that data cannot be combined to target vessels. While this article does demonstrate that the decrease in the probability of casualty is stronger for the South American Region, the Indian Ocean Region and Australia versus North Europe, North America or the Caribbean, it also demonstrates that the data can be combined to target vessels for inspections. Since the time in-between inspections and detention is mostly not significant towards decreasing the probability of casualty, these results reflect the lack of coordination amongst port state control regimes and industry inspections. Due to this lack of coordination and trust, a ship might be inspected in several regimes during a relative short time period where the benefit of an inspection can be easily saturated. Our recommendation on direct policy implication is to promote the harmonization of inspection databases across port state control regimes, preferably with the coordination of the development of the Global Integrated Ship Information System (GISIS) of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), to review the policy of a release of a vessel from detention and to increase cooperation amongst regimes with respect to the follow up of the rectification of deficiencies.     

几种非线性滤波算法的性能比较与分析

在非线性状态估计中,传统的扩展卡尔曼滤波通过线性化来实现高斯近似,由于截断误差的存在很难保证估计精度;而基本粒子滤波容易出现粒子退化,导致滤波发散。针对粒子滤波的两个基本假设：蒙特卡罗假设和重要采样假设,采用蒙特卡罗随机链的方法来提高粒子的多样性,并利用无味卡尔曼滤波来产生更高精度的替代分布,发展了无味粒子滤波。通过仿真实验证明,相比较扩展卡尔曼滤波和基本粒子滤波,改进后的无味粒子滤波算法性能更优越,对含有非线性非高斯的状态估计问题有更好的滤波效果。     

带乘性噪声广义系统状态最优估计算法

针对带乘性噪声广义系统,提出1种在线性最小方差意义下的状态最优估计算法.首先,采用标准分解将系统变换为2个子系统;其次,通过估计子系统的状态,获得原系统的状态最优滤波.同时,算法还给出了动态噪声与量测噪声的估计.仿真结果表明了该算法的有效性.     

Locality Attributes and Networks Serving to Reveal Amazonian Urbanization beyond the Cities

Beyond the Amazonian cities, distinct spatial units arranged in networks compose an extended urban space, usually invisible to government agencies and public polities. This article empirically reveals this space by studying the localities’ characteristics and connections. In southwestern Pará, Brazil, 236 communities were sampled using field expeditions. Variables related to the locality organization, history, health and education services, urban infrastructure, and land use were explored in a fuzzy cluster analysis. Local production and consumption flows were considered in the locality network analysis. The fuzzy analysis allowed identifying a hierarchy of localities for which the geographical location influences the spatial distribution patterns of five groups. On the other hand, consumption and production networks identified different locality's articulations, with persistent dependence on cities. These results characterize extensive urbanization at the local level and highlights the participation of the local populations configuring the Amazonian territory.     

Temporal and Spatial Dynamics Analysis of Grassland Ecosystem Pressure in Kazakhstan

Affected by climate change and policy factors, Kazakhstan is the country with the most severe ecological degradation and grassland conflicts in Central Asia. Therefore, studying the state of grassland carrying resources in Kazakhstan is particularly important for understanding the responses of grassland ecosystems to climate change and human activities. Based on Kazakhstan's remote sensing data and animal husbandry statistics, this study analyzes the patterns of changes in grassland ecosystems in Kazakhstan based on the supply and consumption of these ecosystems. The results show that: 1) From 2003 to 2017, the number of livestock raised in Kazakhstan showed a trend of sustained and steady growth. Due to freezing damage, the scale of livestock farming decreased in 2011, but a spatial difference in the livestock farming structure was not obvious. 2) The fluctuation of grassland supply in Kazakhstan has increased, while the consumption due to animal husbandry has also continued to increase, resulting in an increasing pressure on the grassland carrying capacity. 3) Between 2003 and 2017, the overall grassland carrying status of Kazakhstan have been abundant, but the grassland carrying pressure index has shown a steadily increasing trend, the grassland carrying pressure is growing, and it is mainly determined by grassland productivity. The greater pressure in lower Kyzylorda state, the southern Kazakhstan state of the cultivated land and the northern Kazakhstan state has gradually expanded to include the agro-pastoral zone and the semi-desert zone.     

Sea state estimation using multiple ships simultaneously as sailing wave buoys

The article presents initial ideas towards a network-based approach for sea state estimation used for marine operations and other maritime applications. In principle, all available means, ranging from in situ buoys, fleet of ships to remote sensing by satellite and aircraft, could be considered, emphasising that each means and any combinations among may act simultaneously. This study focuses on just one of the means; the use of ships as sailing wave buoys. The article introduces the wave buoy analogy, i.e. ship-as-a-wave-buoy, and it makes a proposal on how to impose (different) weights to the single ship-specific wave spectrum estimates obtained from multiple ships. Moreover, the work includes a discussion about the importance to associate a measure to reflect the (un)certainty of the wave spectrum estimate. The article presents a numerical case study, where multiple ships act simultaneously as wave spectrum-estimators. The case study relies on numerical motion simulations, as appropriate full-scale data is not yet available. In the analysis, it is shown that the use of simultaneous data from multiple ships leads to more accurate wave spectrum estimations.     

含沙浑水体的黏度测量及应用分析

含沙浑水体的高速冲击会对海底构筑物造成破坏,在计算浑水体对构筑物的作用力时,黏度是一项重要参数。本文利用落球试验和流变仪测试试验,测定了不同浓度含沙浑水体的黏度,给出其起始黏度与动力作用后的稳定黏度。结果表明:含沙量在大于400g/L时,浑水体为可用赫巴模型描述的非牛顿流体,并可简化为宾汉体;在含沙量小于400g/L时,浑水体仍可用宾汉体模型描述,在忽略较小的初始剪切应力时,可简化为牛顿流体。浓度大于400g/L的浑水体的起始黏度约为稳定黏度的100倍。文中讨论了含沙浑水体起始黏度与稳定黏度在工程计算应用中的适用情况。     

超临界态甲烷密度研究

超临界甲烷密度不仅是非常规天然气资源量计算与吸附能力测定的重要参数,同时也是衡量超临界甲烷扩散效率与溶解有机物能力的主要指标。通过对比分析各种气体状态方程的适用性,认为基于亥姆霍兹能量基本状态方程可以准确计算0~30 MPa、270~360 K条件下甲烷的密度。利用Microsoft Office Excel编写了甲烷密度的计算程序,与NIST （美国国家标准与技术研究院）商业软件计算结果相比,误差小于0.05%。分析了0~100 MPa、270~360 K范围内甲烷密度的变化规律。结果表明,甲烷密度随压力增大而增大,在低于30 MPa时增速较大且对温度的敏感性较强,高于30 MPa时增速逐渐变缓,且敏感性减弱。在煤层原位条件下随着埋深的增大,甲烷密度随温度升高而减小,随压力增大而增大;在温度与压力共同作用下,甲烷密度呈先增速不变、近似线性增加,后增速逐渐减小、凸曲线形增加的变化规律。游离态甲烷密度受温度的影响比吸附态甲烷小,是深部煤层气资源增量的主要贡献者。研究结果为深部煤层气赋存及其潜力预测提供了基础参数。