An analysis of intra-event precipitation variability for the United States (1980–2010)

Hourly precipitation data were collected from 143 first-order US weather stations during the period from 1980 to 2009 to assess the internal distribution of precipitation events lasting at least three hours. A total of 46,595 individual precipitation events were identified and evaluated using the mean, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis, and the number of peaks occurring within an event. Mean event duration is longest along the West and Northwest coasts, the Mid-South, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast; while shorter-duration events are more frequent in the Rocky Mountains, the Southwest, and the Great Plains. Mean event precipitation and standard deviation are greatest along the Gulf Coast and decrease inland. Precipitation events are positively skewed, indicating that more precipitation tends to occur earlier in the event. The most positively-skewed events are also located in regions flanking the Gulf of Mexico, while less-skewed events are common in the Northwest and Rocky Mountain regions. Event kurtosis is negative throughout the entire USA, with the highest negative values generally west of the Front Range, where cyclonic development and transition produce more evenly distributed precipitation within storms. Intra-event precipitation maxima were also evaluated, with western Florida and the desert Southwest having the greatest number per event.     

地热异常的水槽模型实验

作为地球物理场的一个分支,地温场在理论和应用研究方面与其它地球物理场一样,也主要是依靠数学方法和物理模型实验的方法来进行的。本文讨论了地热异常水槽模型实验的理论原理;介绍了实验方法技术、实验结果和实际应用效果。     

云南山区日照时数的垂直分布

根据云南省内若干山区气象资料,研究云南山区日照时效的垂直分布规律,得出一些有意义的结论:日照时数垂直分布有抛物线型、线性型、缓变型等;日照时数年内变化有冬大夏小型、春大夏小型、夏大冬小型3种;山区日照时数坡向差异明显,各山区不尽相同。     

我国日照时数和总辐射的空间分布场

运用多项式回归分析和双随机样本检验,模拟日照时数和总辐射及其影响因子(可照时间、总云量和天文辐射、日照百分率)年值和1月值、7月值的三度空间分布场,取得了满意结果。这可应用在无测站地区,仅凭经纬度和海拔估算出上述气候要素值,估算的平均相对误差大多在5％以下(最好的达0.3‰)。     

中国近45年来气候变化的研究

利用１９５１～１９９５年约４００站的月平均气温、降水和１９６１～１９９５年２００余站的最高和最低气温、相对湿度、总云量和低云量、日照时数、蒸发、风速和积雪日数和深度以及０～３．２ｍ共８层土壤温度等资料,对近４５ａ来中国气候变化特征作了一个较全面的分析研究。本文作为第一部分,分析了平均气温、最高最低气温、降水、相对湿度和日照的气候变化规律。其余要素的变化规律以及中国气候变化的可能机制将在第二部分中加以讨论。     

内江市近40年日照变化的统计特征

利用１９６０－１９９５年内江市各测站的逐月日照时数资料，分析了内江市近４０年来日照的变化特征，发现区域平均日照以４６．９８小时／１０年的倾向率减少，这种减少趋势主要表现在冬、夏两季。同时还检测出内江市区域平均年日照时数在１９８０年发生突变，共后进入一个相对少日照对段。     

1961-2012年中国5类主要冰冻天气的气候及变化特征

利用1960/1961-2011/2012年中国有冰冻天气观测且序列完整的1 600多站逐日冰冻现象数据, 研究了中国地区冰冻天气的时空气候变化特征. 结果表明: 年平均霜日数超过180天的地区主要分布在青藏高原东北部、天山、大-小兴安岭一带. 霜日数在我国中北部和青藏高原地区以增加趋势为主, 长江流域及其以南地区为减少趋势. 全国平均的霜日数为显著增长趋势, 超过0.05的显著性水平, 线性增长率达到2.03 d·(10a)^-1, 霜日发生频率增强; 年平均积雪日数超过90 d的地区分布在青藏高原东北部、天山、大-小兴安岭一带. 积雪日数无明显时间变化趋势; 年平均结冰日数超过210 d的地区分布在青藏高原、大兴安岭及天山部分地区. 结冰日数全国范围以减少趋势为主. 全国平均结冰日数有明显的年代际变化趋势, 1980-1990年为结冰日数最多年份; 年平均雾凇日数超过30 d的地区主要在天山地区、大兴安岭地区以及四川峨眉山. 雾凇日数以减少趋势为主, 长江中下游部分地区有增加趋势. 全国平均雾凇日数有显著减少趋势, 超过0.01的显著性水平, 线性递减率达到0.60 d·(10a)^-1; 年平均雨凇日数主要分布在南方云贵高原地区以及长江中下游地区的一些高山区域. 雨凇日数在华北平原地区以减少趋势为主, 长江中下游地区部分站点有增加趋势. 全国平均雨凇日数随时间有弱的增加趋势.     

Influence of earthquake ground‐motion duration on damage estimation: application to steel moment resisting frames

This paper presents an analytical study evaluating the influence of ground motion duration on structural damage of 3‐story, 9‐story, and 20‐story SAC steel moment resisting frame buildings designed for downtown Seattle, WA, USA, using pre‐Northridge codes. Two‐dimensional nonlinear finite element models of the buildings are used to estimate the damage induced by the ground motions. A set of 44 ground motions is used to study the combined effect of spectral acceleration and ground motion significant duration on drift and damage measures. In addition, 10 spectrally equivalent short‐duration shallow crustal ground motions and long‐duration subduction zone records are selected to isolate duration effect and assess its effect on the response. For each ground motion pair, incremental dynamic analyses are performed at at least 20 intensity levels and response measures such as peak interstory drift ratio and energy dissipated are tracked. These response measures are combined into two damage metrics that account for the ductility and energy dissipation. Results indicate that the duration of the ground motion influences, above all, the combined damage measures, although some effect on drift‐based response measures is also observed for larger levels of drift. These results indicate that because the current assessment methodologies do not capture the effects of ground motion duration, both performance‐based and code‐based assessment methodologies should be revised to consider damage measures that are sensitive to duration. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd     

Probabilistic aspects of micropaleontologic assemblage zones

A micropaleontologic assemblage zone is defined by occurrence of some characteristic species among many coeval species. When number of assemblage-defining species and total number of species observed are designated as Aand N,respectively, the ratio, A/N,is strongly dependent on duration of the assemblage. Theoretical consideration on the basis of a micropaleontologic cohort model shows that, when origination rate and extinction rate of species are obtained, the most reasonable ratio (A/N) and duration of the assemblage can be determined. The probabilistic model described in this paper provides a theoretical relation between the ratio and the duration. Inaccuracy in correlating micropaleontologic data to certain assemblage zones established can not be avoided because of many natural sorting and artificial biases. Ambiguity arising when data with a small number of characteristic species are correlated with a certain assemblage is numerically estimated.     

基于遥感数据的多年平均物候不确定性研究

多年平均物候能够反映植被生长发育节律的均衡状态,是植被物候模拟与预测的关键参数之一。遥感已广泛用于地表物候监测,是空间多年平均物候信息的重要来源。然而,基于遥感的多年平均物候存在不同计算方法,如先确定每年时序曲线的物候点再求平均值（平均法）,以及先求多年平均时序曲线再确定物候点（参考曲线法）。上述方法的结果可能存在差异,但目前尚缺乏对这一不确定性及其影响的认识。针对该问题,本研究利用2001年—2016年遥感植被指数数据,分别在平均法和参考曲线法下提取中国森林生长季起始时间的多年平均值（■）,比较■的差异（■）及其空间异质性;进一步选取物候研究中常用指标,即以■为基础的温度“季前时长PD (Preseason Duration)”,分析■不同计算方法对物候—气候关系的潜在影响。结果表明,（1）不同方法下的■差异显著,总体上平均法小于参考曲线法（-2.6±2.2 d,占88%）,其中存在8.0%和6.0%的有效像元其动态平均法和固定平均法小于参考曲线法超过7 d,主要分布在东南丘陵地区。（2）■具有显著的空间异质性,主要表现为随年均温的升高而减小（Slope=0.07 d/℃,P<...