基于ACCRBF网络的多层砖房震害预测

针对传统震害预测方法逐栋抽样计算建筑物抗震性能的不足,本文提出了一种基于蚁群聚类径向基(ACCRBF)网络模型的建筑物震害预测方法。依据不同地震动峰值加速度下多层砖房的实际震害资料,对模型进行训练,在模型的输入和输出之间建立映射关系,并利用这种映射关系对未知样本进行分类,实现对多层砖房的震害分析和预测。模型的输入为反映结构的震害影响因子,输出为给定的地震动峰值加速度下结构震害等级。研究表明,基于ACCRBF网络模型的多层砖房震害预测结果与震害实例基本吻合,具有推广应用价值。     

High resolution OSL and post-IR IRSL dating of the last interglacial–glacial cycle at the Sanbahuo loess site (northeastern China)

Northeastern China is located in the East Asian monsoon region; it is sensitive to both high and low latitude global climate systems. Loess deposits in the region have considerable potential as sensitive archives of past climate changes. However, research into loess deposition and climate change in this region is restricted by the lack of independent age control. In this study, coarse-grained quartz SAR OSL and K-feldspar post-IR infrared (IR) stimulated luminescence (post-IR IRSL; pIRIR₂₉₀) methods have been used to date the Sanbahuo loess site in northeastern China. The quartz OSL characteristics are satisfactory. The measured pIRIR₂₉₀ D_e's do not vary significantly with IR stimulation temperatures between 50 °C and 260 °C; a first IR stimulation temperature of 200 °C was adopted. Dose recovery tests were performed by adding different laboratory doses to both laboratory bleached (300 h SOL2) samples and natural samples; the results are satisfactory up to ∼800 Gy. Resulting quartz OSL and feldspar pIRIR₂₉₀ ages are in good agreement at least back to ∼44 ka; beyond this feldspar pIRIR₂₉₀ ages are older. The feldspar ages are consistent with the expected age of the S1 palaeosol (MIS 5). There appears to have been a period of fast loess deposition at ∼62 ka, perhaps indicative of winter monsoon intensification with a very cold and dry climate that lead to a serious desertification of dunefields in northeastern China.     

Distribution characteristics of delta reservoirs reshaped by bottom currents: A case study from the second member of the Yinggehai Formation in the DF1-1 gas field,Yinggehai Basin,South China Sea

The Dongfang1-1 gas field (DF1-1) in the Yinggehai Basin is currently the largest offshore self-developed gas field in China and is rich in oil and gas resources. The second member of the Pliocene Yinggehai Formation (YGHF) is the main gas-producing formation and is composed of various sedimentary types; however, a clear understanding of the sedimentary types and development patterns is lacking. Here, typical lithofacies, logging facies and seismic facies types and characteristics of the YGHF are identified based on high-precision 3D seismic data combined with drilling, logging, analysis and testing data. Based on 3D seismic interpretation and attribute analysis, the origin of high-amplitude reflections is clarified, and the main types and evolution characteristics of sedimentary facies are identified. Taking gas formation upper II (IIU) as an example, the plane distribution of the delta front and bottom current channel is determined; finally, a comprehensive sedimentary model of the YGHF second member is established. This second member is a shallowly buried “bright spot” gas reservoir with weak compaction. The velocity of sandstone is slightly lower than that of mudstone, and the reflection has medium amplitude when there is no gas. The velocity of sandstone decreases considerably after gas accumulation, resulting in an increase in the wave impedance difference and high-amplitude (bright spot) reflection between sandstone and mudstone; the range of high amplitudes is consistent with that of gas-bearing traps. The distribution of gas reservoirs is obviously controlled by dome-shaped diapir structural traps, and diapir faults are channels through which natural gas from underlying Miocene source rocks can enter traps. The study area is a delta front deposit developed on a shallow sea shelf. The lithologies of the reservoir are mainly composed of very fine sand and coarse silt, and a variety of sedimentary structural types reflect a shallow sea delta environment; upward thickening funnel type, strong toothed bell type and toothed funnel type logging facies are developed. In total, 4 stages of delta front sand bodies (corresponding to progradational reflection seismic facies) derived from the Red River and Blue River in Vietnam have developed in the second member of the YGHF; these sand bodies are dated to 1.5 Ma and correspond to four gas formations. During sedimentation, many bottom current channels (corresponding to channel fill seismic facies) formed, which interacted with the superposed progradational reflections. When the provenance supply was strong in the northwest, the area was dominated by a large set of delta front deposits. In the period of relative sea level rise, surface bottom currents parallel to the coastline were dominant, and undercutting erosion was obvious, forming multistage superimposed erosion troughs. Three large bottom current channels that developed in the late sedimentary period of gas formation IIU are the most typical.     

华北山地多成因壶穴初步研究——对华北山地“冰臼”等“冰川地貌”的讨论

华北山地"距今二、三百万年"的"冰臼"绝大部分位于第四纪河谷内,"距今1～2万年"的"冰川壶穴"位于全新世河谷内,与华北山地地貌演化相矛盾;所谓的"冰川地貌"组合不是真正的地貌组合,而是不同时代、不同成因地貌的混合,因此,华北山地不存在冰臼。所谓的"冰臼"是不同时代、多种成因的壶穴——距今2.50Ma前后的河蚀壶穴,距今10～20ka的雪蚀壶穴,距今10ka以来的溶蚀穴、溶蚀—河蚀壶穴、风化—风蚀壶穴、现代壶穴和水潭。     

试论矿产勘查中人的决定性因素

矿产勘查是一项系统工程，由多种因素构成，要想获得尽可能高的矿产勘查成果，仅依靠先进的成矿理论和找矿方法是不够的，还需注重掌握先进成矿理论与方法的管理人员的作用，在地勘行业调整与改革的现阶段，强调矿产勘查系统中人的决写性因素，认识人在矿产勘查中的地位与作用，提高勘查人员的素质，对调整，稳定发展地勘队伍具有一定的现实意义。     

Synchronism of Holocene East Asian monsoon variations and North Atlantic drift-ice tracers

Eighteen radiocarbon-dated eolian and paleosol profiles within a 1500-km-long belt along the arid to semi-arid transition zone of north-central China record variations in the extent and strength of the East Asian summer monsoon during the Holocene. Dated paleosols and peat layers represent intervals when the zone was dominated by a mild, moist summer monsoon climate that favored pedogenesis and peat accumulation. Brief intervals of enhanced eolian activity that resulted in the deposition of loess and eolian sand were times when strengthened winter monsoon conditions produced a colder, drier climate. The monsoon variations correlate closely with variations in North Atlantic drift-ice tracers that represent episodic advection of drift ice and cold polar surface water southward and eastward into warmer subpolar water. The correspondence of these records over the full span of Holocene time implies a close relationship between North Atlantic climate and the monsoon climate of central China.     

华北克拉通东部含金刚石金伯利岩的侵位年龄和Sr-Nd-Hf同位素地球化学特征

本文首次报道了我国华北克拉通内部金伯利岩中金云母巨晶的Ar-Ar同位素年龄和含金刚石金伯利岩的Hf同位素组成特征,并结合金伯利岩的Sr-Nd同位素组成特征对华北金伯利岩的岩石成因及其构造背景进行了探讨.金伯利岩中金云母巨晶的年代学分析显示华北克拉通内部的蒙阴和复县金伯利岩具有一致的侵位年龄,约465±2 Ma.这与以前发表的金伯利岩中钙钛矿的U-Pb年龄和金云母的Rb-Sr等时线年龄一致.Sr-Nd同位素结果表明蒙阴和复县金伯利岩皆具有很小的Nd同位素变化范围（εNd分别为-0.4～0.2和-3.4～-2.3）.然而,这些金伯利岩却具有极大的Sr同位素组成范围（ISr分布为-0.2～28.1和0～75）.其中复县比蒙阴金伯利岩具有较低的Nd同位素和更宽的Sr同位素组成.Hf同位素分析结果表明蒙阴和复县两岩区内部各金伯利岩岩管具有非常一致的铪同位素组成,类似于Nd同位素组成特征,其中蒙阴金伯利岩的^176Hf/^177Hf初始值为0.282474～0.282416,相应的εHf值为-2.37～-0.30;复县金伯利岩的^176Hf/^177Hf初始值为0.282305～0.282369;相应的εHf值为-6.29～-4.04.这说明蒙阴金伯利岩与复县金伯利岩相比具有较高的Hf同位素组成.结合Sr-Nd同位素组成,暗示蒙阴和复县金伯利岩的Hf同位素组成的不同可能反映金伯利岩岩浆形成时软流圈、岩石圈地幔以及俯冲的洋壳物质参与比例的不同.Sr-Nd-Hf同位素特征说明我国华北古生代金伯利岩的形成同样与华北周边的古大洋岩石圈向华北内部俯冲作用有关.     

西北干旱区近50年气候变化特征与趋势

20世纪后期全球增暖趋势越来越明显,受全球增暖的影响,西北地区的气候也将受到不同程度的影响。选取了西北干旱区1951～2000年的21个代表站点气温、降水量资料,采用趋势系数法对西北干旱区近50年气温和降水变化进行分析,找出各分区的变化趋势。结果表明:近50年西北干旱区气温呈上升趋势(0.22℃/10 a),1986年后气温明显升高;柴达木盆地和新疆北部升温较大;各季都有增温趋势,贡献最大的是秋冬两季。降水变化有增加的趋势(3.2 mm/10 a),年降水量贡献最大的是夏季;各区降水都有增加,其中新疆北部降水增加最多。西北干旱区近50年气温升高趋势是南北高,中间低;降水量增加趋势从东南向西北呈现递增的格局。     

Fractal Determination of Coastal Types Based on GIS--A Case Study of China

The probability of fractal determination of coastal types based on GIS is preliminarily discussed with China as an example. Finally, some significant conclusions are drawn: (1) The fractal dimension of coastline of the bedrock coast is larger than that of the plain coast on the same scale map; (2) As far as the bedrock coast is concerned, the larger fractal dimension of coastline of the bedrock coast on the same scale map indicates that the bedrock coast is probably not typical; (3) As far as the plain coast is concerned, the smaller fractal dimension of coastline of the plain coast on the same scale map indicates that it is probably the silt plain coast; (4) The different substantial compositions affect the fractal dimensions of coastlines of different coastal types. In general, the coast which lies in the north of the Hangzhou Bay consists of sand mainly, its surface is flat, and it is connected with the coastal plain, its landform is broad shoal, its total change is comparatively homogenous in the tidal dynamic process, and thus, the relatively smaller fractal dimension of coastline results from this. For the bedrock coast, there is more bedrock, the coastline is comparatively smooth and straight, being affected by the faults and ocean dynamic process, which result in the larger fractal dimension.     

南海北部海区水团的判别分析

将判别分析应用于南海北部海区的水团分析。划分为八个水团:沿岸冲淡水团(F),近岸混合水团(M),暖表层水团(WS),表层水团(S),表—次层混合水团(SU),次层水团(U),次—中层混合水团(UI)和中层水团(I)。给出了各水团在四季代表月的Bayes多组判别的系数和参数。用资料检验判别的成效.冬季和春季可达95.90％以上,夏季为94.80％,秋季是全年最低值,为92.72％。讨论了造成错判的原因,并与Fisher判别作了比较。当测值维数较低时,建议选用Bayes判别。对八个水团以及各水团两两之间差异的显著性进行了检验,证实在每个季节中各水团之间的差异,都在高度置信水平(α=0.01)上具有显著性。因而,划分为八个水团是有实际意义的,其判别式的系数和参数,可用于实际的判别和预报。