2014年5月大气环流和天气分析

2014年5月环流特征如下:北半球极涡成准圆形绕级分布,中心强度为524 dagpm,较气候平均的强度偏强4~6dagpm,北半球高纬500 hPa位势高度呈4波型分布,我国中东部大部地区受偏西气流控制,多短波槽活动;副热带高压较常年明显偏西偏北,南方地区出现多次强降水天气过程。另外,南海季风爆发较常年同期明显偏晚。5月全国平均气温为全国平均气温16.5℃,较常年同期(16.2℃)偏高0.3℃;全国平均降水量73.8 nm,较常年同期(69.5 mm)略偏多6.2%。月内,我国主要天气特点是:华南江南暴雨频发,华北黄淮出现极端高温。     

天津春季气候特征及2013年春季影响因子分析

利用1974-2012年天津12个气象站的降水、气温资料及NCEP／NCAR再分析资料等,采用经验函数正交分解（EOF）和相关分析等统计方法,对天津春季的气候特征及主要影响因子进行分析。结果表明：1）天津春季降水空间分布主要有全市一致型和南北反位相型2种分布型,其总方差贡献接近90％,2013年春季为全市一致型。2）东亚冬季风、北极涛动（AO）和西太平洋副高是天津春季气候的主要影响因子。3）2013年,东亚冬季风偏强,AO冬、春持续负位相,春季西太平洋副高偏弱、偏东,均指示天津2013年春季降水偏少、气温偏低的可能性大。     

2014年9月大气环流和天气分析

2014年9月环流特征如下：北半球高纬地区极涡为单极型,中高纬地区呈6波型分布,西北太平洋副热带高压与常年同期相当,9月全国平均降水量为80.7 mm,比常年同期（65.3 mm）偏多23.6%;全国9月平均气温为17.1℃,较常年同期（16.6℃）偏高0.5℃。 月内共有6次强降水过程,四川盆地东北部、陕西中南部、河南等地共有113站发生极端连续降水日数事件,陕西中南部、山西西南部、河南西部和四川东北部等地共有96站发生极端连续降水量事件。月内,台风海鸥和凤凰先后登陆我国;华西地区、黄淮大部、华北西南部等地出现持续降雨过程;甘肃、陕西及河南等地前期气象干旱得到解除。     

ANALYSES OF ERRORS IN MEDIUM-TERM NUMERICAL FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH 1998

1INTRODUCTIONItiswellknownthattheaccuracyoftheforecastingofwesternPacificsubtropicalhighcontributesmuchtothesuccessofforecastsofmedium-termprecipitationduringtherainingseasonofeasternChina.Forthepastfewyears,NWPproductsarebecomingindispensablefoundationsforoperationalforecastersmakingmedium-termforecasts,withtherapidmodernizationofmeteorologicalmeansandon-goingimprovementoftheNWPproducts.ModelscapableofproducingNWPproductscannotyieldresultsthatentirelyrepresentthe搕rueatmosphere?butha…     

南海北部亚热带滨珊瑚对低温的耐受能力

Marginal scleractinian corals growing at their latitudinal limits should be quite sensitive to variations in winter sea surface temperatures(SSTs). An extreme cold event occurring in early 2008 offered a unique opportunity to examine the effect of cold-water anomalies on Porites lutea corals and their physiological tolerance and acclimation in the subtropical northern South China Sea(NSCS). Besides in-situ observation, a subsequent aquarium-based experiment was designed for reproducing the chilling process and a 50-year-long Sr/Ca ratio profile from two P. lutea skeletal slabs was analyzed for reconstructed the historical annual minimum SSTs which ceased Porites calcification. The 2008 low-temperature anomaly caused the minimum daily mean SSTs dropped below 13°C in the Daya Bay. The stress symptoms displayed by local P. lutea colonies included polyp retraction, reduced coloration and pale, but none showed tissue sloughing. The ability of P. lutea to survive implied its tolerance of extreme low temperatures. Here we suggest a model on the tolerance of high-latitude Porites under low-temperature stresses, which is when SSTs drop below 18°C, Porites corals contract their tentacles(losing heterotrophic capability), then cease calcification(reducing energy consumption), and meanwhile maintain relatively high levels of zooxanthellae density(sustaining host's life via photosynthetic capacity of symbiotic zooxanthellae). This study revealed remarkable acclimatization of P. lutea corals to low temperature extremes. This acclimatization is beneficial for Porites corals in the NSCS to expand their living ranges towards the higher-latitude areas and have the potential to be the incipient reef former.     

青岛地区30a春夏季降水变化及形势分析

本文利用青岛观象山气象台1981-2010年3～8月的降水资料,进行统计分析,总结出青岛地区近30a的春夏季降水变化情况,以及青岛地区春夏季强降水在各个阶段的主要天气形势.     

Bacterial abundance and production in different water masses around South Island,New Zealand

Abstract

Bacterial numbers and production were measured in the upper water column in the winter and spring of 1993 in five water masses surrounding the South Island of New Zealand. Average bacterial numbers and production were found to be higher in spring (8.5 × 10⁵ cells ml^?1 and 0.20 mg m³ h^?1, respectively) than winter (5.5 × 10⁵ cells ml^?1 and 0.05 mg C m³ h^?1 respectively). Bacterial production was strongly correlated with chlorophyll a and primary production (P < 0.001) in spring but not in winter. Spring bacterial production and at 10 m depth averaged across 28 stations was 23% of primary production, and with a growth efficency of 40%, may have consumed up to 57% of primary production. Bacterial biomass was greater than phytoplankton biomass for 75% of the 10 m depth comparisons during winter sampling and 44% during the spring sampling. The bacterial biomass was found to represent 24.6–33.5% of the nitrogen in particulate organic matter (<200 μm) supporting the concept that in New Zealand oceanic water masses bacteria are of significant biogeochemical importance.     

西太平洋副热带高压变化与赤道太平洋海温场的联系

通过对西太平洋副热带高压变化的多年统计分析,发现其具有明显的年际和年代际变化特征,副高面积和强度均存在3~4 a和11~14 a显著周期,副高西伸脊点存在3~5 a和准13 a显著周期。副高面积和强度变化基本一致,与赤道中东太平洋海表温度（SST）存在显著的正相关关系,西伸脊点与中东太平洋海表温度变化则存在负的相关关系。赤道太平洋不同经度的SST与副高变化存在明显的差异,赤道中太平洋SST异常与副高变化的关系最为密切,东太平洋相对偏弱,而西太平洋呈现相反的相关关系。由此可以认为,赤道中太平洋异常SST变化是影响副高变化的关键区域。根据它们之间存在的密切关系,通过回归分析,建立了它们二者之间的回归方程,对2013年春夏季副高的强度和西伸脊点位置变化进行了预测,为2013年我国汛期降水预测提供一定的参考。     

夏季东亚副热带西风急流特征指数表征方法对比分析

为了能够给科研工作者和业务技术人员合理使用各种东亚副热带西风急流表征方法提供科学依据,利用1960～2009年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和中国714个基准站20时(北京时)降水观测资料,归纳总结了以往夏季东亚副热带西风急流客观定量表征方法,并以2005年6～8月为例,进行了表征方法的数值反演和性能分析,结果表明:表征位置指数的方法有轴线法、EOF分解法、区域风速差法。轴线法定义合理且有明确的物理意义,方法简单易行、意义清晰、表现直观,适用于逐日实时监测和诊断分析。EOF分解法与区域风速差法适用于气候评估和季节诊断;表征急流强度的方法有区域风速法及中心强度法,均适应于逐日实时监测与环流观测,且对华北地区及长江中下游雨量多寡有较好的指示意义,方法计算简便、意义清晰、指示性好。同时还指出,业务工作者和科研工作者实际应用时应根据需求合理选择指数或者对指数进行适当改进。