Potential Deformation and Its Application to the Diagnosis of Heavy Precipitation in Mesoscale Convective Systems

Many observational studies have shown that deformation, like vertical vorticity and divergence, is closely related to the occurrence and distribution of strong precipitation. In this paper, to involve deformation in precipitation diagnosis, a new parameter called potential deformation(PD) is derived and then applied to precipitation detection within a simulated mesoscale convective system(MCS). It is shown that PD includes both stretching deformation and shearing deformation and shares similar characteristics with deformation insofar as it does not change with the rotating coordinate. Diagnosis of the simulated MCS reveals that PD performs well in tracing the MCS' precipitation. In terms of their distributional pattern, the large-value areas of PD are similar to the precipitation in the different development stages of the MCS. A detailed analysis of the physical processes contained within the PD shows that it can reflect the three-dimensional moisture variation,vertical wind shear and wind deformation within the MCS. These structures are usually a comprehensive reflection of the characteristics of the surface cold pool, rear inflow jet, downward cold air flow and upward warm moist flow within the precipitating convective cells. For this reason, the PD shows much stronger anomalies in the precipitating atmosphere than the non-precipitating atmosphere, which implies considerable potential for its application in detecting heavy precipitation within MCSs.     

变形监测信号消噪的不确定度

变形表现为一种弱信号,误差呈现为强噪声。小波包分解消噪是对分解中所得到的高频部分再继续细分,因此具有更精细的消噪能力。采用最优小波包基进行信号重构的过程中,信号有一定的损失。若将消噪过程近似成拟合,拟合误差符合正态分布,可以采用假设检验法估计信号重构误差的区间,进而确定信号重构误差的不确定度,评价小波包消噪的质量。     

现代变形监测技术的发展现状与展望

本文对现代变形监测技术从空间、地面、地下三个方面的最新发展入手,综述了各技术目前的应用现状,客观分析了测量机器人、GPS、三维激光扫描、光纤传感器、D-InSAR等技术在变形监测领域应用的特点、优势与不足。提出了随着现代通讯网络技术和G IS技术的发展,变形监测将逐步实现数据获取的自动化,监测设备多层次的集优化,变形数据分析与预警的信息化。     

基于全站仪交会的变形监测方法的应用研究

介绍了全站仪前方交会和后方交会法相结合的测量方法,方便简捷地解决了测量人员不能进入的水域、高速公路、机场跑道、天线、塔、矿山危险采场等特殊位置的测量问题,并通过对该方法的精度分析,论证了其可行性和有效性,对类似的测量工作提供经验和依据。     

延安新区地表垂直形变时空演化的经验正交函数分析

采用SBAS-InSAR技术对43景Sentinel-1A影像进行处理,获取延安新区（北区）地表形变信息,并运用经验正交函数对结果进行分解,得到研究区域的时间系数和空间分布。结果表明,延安新区（北区）的最大沉降速率为-56 mm/a,最大抬升速率为32 mm/a。从第1模态可以看出,挖方、填方是造成地表抬升和沉降的主要原因;第2模态则反映了工程建设不同时期对应的不同地表形变状态,即加速、减缓、平稳3个阶段。     

菲律宾棉兰老岛2019年4次MW>6.0地震断层运动模型及库仑应力传输研究

基于雷达干涉测量技术,利用ALOS-2、Sentinel-1卫星升降轨雷达影像,获得2019-10~12发生在菲律宾棉兰老岛的4次M_W>6.0地震的同震形变场,并以此形变结果为约束,反演得到4次地震的断层运动模型。综合分析发现,此次地震序列由3条断裂的破裂引起,其中2019-10-16和2019-10-31的2次地震为同一发震断裂,2019-10-31地震断层破裂区域位于2019-10-16地震断层破裂的东北延伸段,最大滑动量约为1.1 m,约为2019-10-16地震最大滑动量的2倍。2019-10-29地震由一条独立断层破裂引起,断层最大滑动量约为2.0 m。2019-12-15地震由一条东北向倾斜断层破裂引起,断层最大滑动量约为3.0 m。此外,2019-10-16地震引起2019-10-29地震显著滑动区明显的正向库仑应力传输;而2019-10-29地震显著增加了2019-10-31地震震源区域的库仑应力;前3次地震对2019-12-15地震孕震断层的库仑应力传输总和为负值,说明静态库仑应力传输可能不是此次地震触发的主要诱因。     

分数阶傅里叶变换联合支持向量机的建筑物变形预测

提出一种分数阶傅里叶变换(fractional Fourier transformation, FrFT)与支持向量机(support vector machine, SVM)相结合的建筑物变形组合预测模型。首先利用FrFT对变形时间序列进行多尺度分析,将复杂时间序列分解为一系列结构较为简单的子序列;然后利用SVM对每个子序列分别建立预测模型,通过将各个子序列的预测结果进行综合叠加,得到最终预测结果;同时考虑到SVM模型参数选择的难题,提出一种改进果蝇优化算法(improved fruit fly optimization algorithm, IFOA)对其进行全局寻优,提升预测性能。以西南地区某混凝土坝变形实测数据为例开展验证实验,结果表明,本文组合预测模型能够充分挖掘数据中隐含的趋势性和规律性信息,获得较高的预测精度。     

Collapsing loess-like soil in western Saudi Arabia

Earth fissures have developed at Wadi Al-Yutamah, western Saudi Arabia. The fissues are associated with land subsidence which is considered to be due to both rapid draw down of the ground-water level and hydrocompaction of the wadi soil after flooding. This phenomenon is relatively recent in the area.The wadi soil was investigated and classified in the field, and disturbed and undisturbed samples were collected for laboratory testing and analysis. The engineering properties of the wadi soils were determined, including in situ field density, specific gravity, liquid limit, plastic limit, plasticity index, shrinkage limit, and consolidation characteristics such as total settlement and coefficient of subsidence (collapse).Four types of silty soil of different colours were identified, in addition to yellowish-brown sand (representing the dunes) which accumulated on the surface of the study area. The silty soils include yellowish-brown silty sand, yellowish-gray silt, pale brown silt and yellowish-brown clayey silt. The results of X-ray diffraction analysis indicated that the clay is mainly kaolinite and illite with minor smectite. The dominant soil type in the study area is silt of low plasticity, high void ratio and low density which decreased with depth. This soil was classified as loess-like materials.The studied soils are of a collapsing type, and settlement is greatly increased by excessive wetting under constant pressure. The calculated coefficients of subsidence (collapse) of the soils at different depths generally increased with decreasing soil density and ranged between 3·1% and 10·8%. The wadi soils are considered to pose a moderate problem when wetted.     

Environmental problems in coastal zone of Chin──sea-level rise and groundwater table decline

Foundationitem:UndertheauspicesoftheKeyProjectoftheChineseAcademyofSciences(KZ951-Al-203)1IntroductionTherearellcoastalprovincesandprovince-levelmwhcipalihesinChina,excludingTaiwan,HongKong,andallcao,withl8OOodri-longcoastallines(FigUrl).Thisregionisaneconondodly-develoPedanddensely-populatedzonewithalandareaofl3.8%ofthenahon'stOtal,55.6%ofitSgrossdomesticproducLnd39-8%,PfitSPOPulationinl997.Thepopulallondensityis4.4hmesthaofthetalonalaverage.The299cihesinthesellcoastalprovincesare4…