�˼�Э�����Ӱ���GPS�߳���Ϸ����о�

???????-????????????????????????е??г??????,????????????????????????;???,??????????????????????????С???????÷??????????Э???????????????????о??????????????????????仯???????????????????????????????y?????????????????????????Э?????????С???????÷???????????????????????Ч??????????     

灰色稳健总体最小二乘估计及高铁路基变形预测

最小二乘估计和部分变量误差模型的总体最小二乘估计不具备抵御粗差的能力。鉴于粗差可能同时出现在灰色白化微分方程的观测值和系数矩阵中,本文提出基于IGGⅢ抗差方案的部分变量总体最小二乘稳健估计。结合仿真数据和高铁路基观测数据,系统地比较稳健最小二乘、部分变量总体最小二乘、本文算法参数估计结果和算法稳定性。结果表明,本文算法预测精度高,可以应用到高铁路基沉降预测中。     

地下采矿引起的地表下沉的动态过程模型

分析了由地下采矿引起地表下沉的动态过程的Knothe时间函数模型的不足,在原Knothe时间函数中增加了一个以常数k为参数的幂指数,增加参数后的时间函数模型经理论分析符合地表点下沉的动态过程、速度变化过程和加速度变化过程;改进后的时间函数模型中参数c决定地表点下沉过程时间的长短,参数k决定地表点在时间轴上的下沉路径及达到最大速度所需的时间;用改进后的时间函数模型对某矿沉陷盆地倾向主断面上下沉量最大点的下沉过程的观测资料进行了拟合,即用经验方法确定参数c后,再用最小二乘法确定参数k。研究结果表明,该模型可较准确地拟合实测曲线。用改进后的时间函数模型结合沉陷盆地主断面的剖面函数模型,建立了主断面地表下沉曲线变化的动态过程模型,该模型可求出沉陷主断面或沉陷盆地某一点在某一时刻的下沉量、下沉速度和加速度。     

平原地区高潜水位采煤塌陷综合治理研究——以兖州煤田为例

煤炭资源的开采引发了采煤塌陷、农田损毁、生态破坏、农民失地等后果,给矿区带来了一系列经济、社会、环境问题。该文以兖州煤田为例,对平原地区高潜水位条件下煤炭开采引起的地表塌陷现状进行调查,充分掌握了塌陷区土地利用现状、塌陷区稳沉状况及破坏现状。分析了兖州煤田采煤塌陷区的土地损毁特点,研究了塌陷区综合治理的手段和方法,针对性地提出了高潜水位地区采煤塌陷综合治理的途径,为采煤塌陷区的规划治理提供了参考。     

福州温泉区地面沉降特点及影响因素分析

在掌握福州市地面沉降状况及其分布规律的基础上,分析得出引起地面沉降的主要原因是过量开采地下温泉;影响某点地面沉降年变化情况的主要因素有城市降雨量、温泉开采量等。     

南水北调地下水回补对潮白河冲洪积扇中上部地表形变响应及控制因素

2014年南水进京后,持续开展地下水回补对于遏制和减缓地面沉降发展起到重要作用,但地下水回升由此带来的不同区域、不同层位的地面沉降与回弹机制及其控制因素尚不明确。深入探讨和研究回补时间、回补量、回补地点与水位及地表形变之间的关系,了解地表形变发生机理和识别主控因素,为后续如何科学回补,发挥最大化水资源回补效益、对地面沉降防治和超采区治理具有极其重要意义。本文以潮白河冲洪积扇中上部区域为例,采用永久散射体差分干涉测量（PS InSAR）技术获取研究区地面沉降形变信息,并结合区域分层地下水位动态变化、分层沉降变化等多手段进行耦合,查明研究区地表形变与多因素之间的响应与控制因素。结果表明:南水持续回补导致区域地面沉降减缓,并在牛栏山地区出现地表抬升,抬升范围也随着水位上升逐渐向中下游扩展,2022年最大回弹速率达46.9 mm/a;地表形变具有明显的受断裂所控制的第四系沉积差异特性,以黄庄—高丽营断裂、顺义断裂和南口—孙河断裂所分割的后沙峪凹陷范围内变化明显大于其他地区;地下水位变幅与富水性差异决定水位上升范围与响应变化,而沉积构造作用所造成第四系沉积差异在地下水流向上具有一定控制作用。结果为地面沉降防控和机理研究提供理论和科学依据,同时也为后续开展地下水科学回补和方案优化提供指导和借鉴。     

Tectono–Thermal Evolution, Hydrocarbon Filling and Accumulation Phases of the Hari Sag, in the Yingen–Ejinaqi Basin, Inner Mongolia, Northern China

This work restored the erosion thickness of the top surface of each Cretaceous formations penetrated by the typical well in the Hari sag, and simulated the subsidence burial history of this well with software BasinMod. It is firstly pointed out that the tectonic subsidence evolution of the Hari sag since the Cretaceous can be divided into four phases: initial subsidence phase, rapid subsidence phase,uplift and erosion phase, and stable slow subsidence phase. A detailed reconstruction of the tectonothermal evolution and hydrocarbon generation histories of typical well was undertaken using the EASY R_0% model, which is constrained by vitrinite reflectance(R_0) and homogenization temperatures of fluid inclusions. In the rapid subsidence phase, the peak period of hydrocarbon generation was reached at c.a.105.59 Ma with the increasing thermal evolution degree. A concomitant rapid increase in paleotemperatures occurred and reached a maximum geothermal gradient of about 43-45℃/km. The main hydrocarbon generation period ensued around 105.59-80.00 Ma and the greatest buried depth of the Hari sag was reached at c.a. 80.00 Ma, when the maximum paleo-temperature was over 180℃.Subsequently, the sag entered an uplift and erosion phase followed by a stable slow subsidence phase during which the temperature gradient, thermal evolution, and hydrocarbon generation decreased gradually. The hydrocarbon accumulation period was discussed based on homogenization temperatures of inclusions and it is believed that two periods of rapid hydrocarbon accumulation events occurred during the Cretaceous rapid subsidence phase. The first accumulation period observed in the Bayingebi Formation(K_1 b) occurred primarily around 105.59-103.50 Ma with temperatures of 125-150℃. The second accumulation period observed in the Suhongtu Formation(K_1 s) occurred primarily around84.00-80.00 Ma with temperatures of 120-130℃. The second is the major accumulation period, and the accumulation mainly occurred in the Late Cretaceous. The hydrocarbon accumulation process was comprehensively controlled by tectono-thermal evolution and hydrocarbon generation history. During the rapid subsidence phase, the paleo temperature and geothermal gradient increased rapidly and resulted in increasing thermal evolution extending into the peak period of hydrocarbon generation,which is the key reason for hydrocarbon filling and accumulation.     

Seismic‐stratigraphic constraints on the age of the Faroe Islands Basalt Group,Faroe–Shetland region,Northeast Atlantic Ocean

Lower Palaeogene extrusive igneous rocks of the Faroe Islands Basalt Group (FIBG) dominate the Faroese continental margin, with flood basalts created at the time of breakup and separation from East Greenland extending eastwards into the Faroe‐Shetland Basin. This volcanic succession was emplaced in connection with the opening of the NE Atlantic; however, consensus on the age and duration of volcanism remains lacking. On the Faroe Islands, the FIBG comprises four main basaltic formations (the pre‐breakup Lopra and Beinisvørð formations, and the syn‐breakup Malinstindur and Enni formations) locally separated by thin intrabasaltic sedimentary and/or volcaniclastic units. Offshore, the distribution of these formations remains ambiguous. We examine the stratigraphic framework of these rocks on the Faroese continental margin combining onshore (published) outcrop information with offshore seismic‐reflection and well data. Our results indicate that on seismic‐reflection profiles, the FIBG can be informally divided into lower and upper seismic‐stratigraphic packages separated by the strongly reflective A‐horizon. The Lower FIBG comprises the Lopra and Beinisvørð formations; the upper FIBG includes the Malinstindur and Enni formations. The strongly reflecting A‐horizon is a consequence of the contrast in properties of the overlying Malinstindur and underlying Beinisvørð formations. Onshore, the A‐horizon is an erosional surface, locally cutting down into the Beinisvørð Formation; offshore, we have correlated the A‐horizon with the Flett unconformity, a highly incised, subaerial unconformity, within the juxtaposed and interbedded sedimentary fill of the Faroe‐Shetland Basin. We refer to this key regional boundary as the A‐horizon/Flett unconformity. The formation of this unconformity represents the transition from the pre‐breakup to the syn‐breakup phase of ocean margin development in the Faroe–Shetland region. We examine the wider implications of this correlation considering existing stratigraphic models for the FIBG, discussing potential sources of uncertainty in the correlation of the lower Palaeogene succession across the Faroe–Shetland region, and implications for the age and duration of the volcanism.     

基于AR(p)的-卡尔曼滤波在GPS变形监测中的应用

由于AR（p）模型结构比较简单且计算比较方便,在变形分析中,目前常采用此模型建立变形模型。然而单纯的AR模型把模型参数作为定值,变形数据拟合误差及变形预测误差可能会比较大。介绍了将卡尔曼滤波引入AR模型,利用观测数据建立AR模型,即建立观测方程;以AR模型的参数为状态向量建立状态方程。从而形成动态系统的卡尔曼滤波函数模型,动态计算出AR模型的参数以便预测。此方法快速、实时,且占有较少内存,充分利用了AR模型和卡尔曼滤波二者的优点。     

全面禁采以来锡西澄南地区地面沉降动态特征分析

锡西澄南地区在苏锡常地区地面沉降研究中具有一定代表性,是地面沉降的典型地区之一。本文在已有的长期地下水水位、地面沉降监测资料的基础上,结合区域地质条件就全面禁采以来锡西澄南地区的地面沉降特征的诸多方面作进一步的探索分析。分析结果显示:目前锡西澄南地区出现南北沉降差异;差异特征与相应区域的地下水补给条件密切相关;北部Ⅱ承压层沉降为预防重点。