1993年5月日面AR7500中暗条的动力学特征

本文利用光球磁场、色球Hα单色像和Hβ速度场等观测资料，分析了1993年5月日面AR7500中3个暗条的演化和动力学行为，得出4个结论(1)3个暗条中两个是右旋暗条，一个是左旋暗条。(2)暗条附近两侧的色球纤维和光球横场几乎平行于暗条长轴，暗条端点处的黑子没有呈现明显的涡旋结构。(3)尖角处因为轴向场取向不同，一直没有发生暗条合并，即使其中一个右旋暗条消失后又重新形成也如此。(4)几天持续存在的左旋暗条，在两天的观测中未出现扰动激活，其中部为杂乱而不明显的运动图案。本文还讨论了可以用暗条的扭曲磁流绳模型来解释暗条的这些动力学行为，以及一些尚待进一步澄清的问题。     

1932年麻城6.0级强震的蕴育环境条件探讨

本文在活断层研究和地震宏观调查的基础上,从现代地壳运动特征及活动断层几何学,运动特征等方面研究了1932年麻城Ms6.0级地震的蕴育环境条件,为预测该区强震的地点和强度提供依据。     

The generation of a large-scale Galactic magnetic field by electric currents of energetic particles

We consider the generation of a magnetic field in the Galaxy by the electric currents excited by cosmic-ray particles in the disk and halo. We assume that the sources of relativistic particles are distributed continuously and uniformly in the Galactic disk, their total power is equal to the observed value, and the particles themselves undergo anisotropic diffusion in a homogeneous medium. We take into account the differential rotation of the Galactic disk but disregard the turbulence gyrotropy (the α effect). The strength of the generated magnetic field in our model is shown to strongly depend on the symmetry of the relativistic proton and thermal electron diffusion tensors, as well as on the relations between the tensor components. In particular, if the diffusion is isotropic, then no magnetic field is generated. For the independent tensor components estimated from observed parameters of the Galactic medium and with a simultaneous allowance made for the turbulent field dissipation processes, the mechanism under consideration can provide an observable magnetic-field strength of the order of several microgauss. This mechanism does not require any seed magnetic field, which leads us to suggest that relativistic particles can give an appreciable and, possibly, determining contribution to the formation of the global Galactic magnetic field. However, a final answer can be obtained only from a nonlinear self-consistent treatment, in which the symmetry and magnitude of the particle diffusion tensor components should be determined together with the calculation of the magnetic field.     

Preliminary Quantitative Assessment of Earthquake Casualties and Damages

Prognostic estimations of the expected number of killed or injured people and about the approximate cost associated with the damages caused by earthquakes are made following a suitable methodology of wide-ranging application. For the preliminary assessment of human life losses due to the occurrence of a relatively strong earthquake we use a quantitative model consisting of a correlation between the number of casualties and the earthquake magnitude as a function of population density. The macroseismic intensity field is determined in accordance with an updated anelastic attenuation law, and the number of casualties within areas of different intensity is computed using an application developed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment, taking advantage of the possibilities of such a system for the treatment of space-distributed data. The casualty rate, defined as the number of killed people divided by the number of inhabitants of the affected region, is also computed and we show its variation for some urban concentrations with different population density. For a rough preliminary evaluation of the direct economic cost derived from the damages, equally through a GIS-based tool, we take into account the local social wealth as a function of the gross domestic product of the country. This last step is performed on the basis of the relationship of the macroseismic intensity to the earthquake economic loss in percentage of the wealth. Such an approach to the human casualty and damage levels is carried out for sites near important cities located in a seismically active zone of Spain, thus contributing to an easier taking of decisions in emergency preparedness planning, contemporary earthquake engineering and seismic risk prevention.     

Laboratory Measurement and Correction of Thermal Properties for Application to the Rock Mass

The requirement for quantitative thermal property data in assessing the performance of an engineered repository is identified. Experimental methods for the measurement of thermal conductivity, thermal expansivity and heat capacity are outlined and typical test results are presented for two rock-types of interest in relation to the Sellafield site. The controls on the thermal properties are discussed and a series of corrections from the rock material to the rock mass properties are presented. Finally, a correction scheme that accounts for the effect of scale is followed.     

Continuous GPS and broad-scale deformation across the Rhine Graben and the Alps

In order to study the ongoing tectonic deformation in the Rhine Graben area, we reconstruct the local crustal velocity and the strain rate field from GPS array solutions. Following the aim of this work, we compile the velocities of permanent GPS stations belonging to various networks (EUREF, AGNES, REGAL and RGP) in central western Europe. Moreover, the strain rate field is displayed in terms of principal axes and values, while the normal and the shear components of the strain tensor are calculated perpendicular and parallel to the strike of major faults. The results are compared with the fault plane solutions of earthquakes, which have occurred in this area. A broad-scale kinematic deformation model across the Rhine Graben is provided on the basis of tectonics and velocity results of the GPS permanent stations. The area of study is divided into four rigid blocks, between which there might be relative motions. The velocity and the strain rate fields are reconstructed along their borders, by estimating a uniform rotation for each block. The tectonic behaviour is well represented by the four-block model in the Rhine Graben area, while a more detailed model will be needed for a better reconstruction of the strain field in the Alpine region.

Analysis on the interplanetary causes of the great magnetic storms in solar maximum (2000-2001)

In this paper, we analyze the interplanetary causes of eight great geomagnetic storms during the solar maximum (2000-2001). The result shows that the interplanetary causes were the intense southward magnetic field and the notable characteristic among the causal mechanism is compression. Six of eight great geomagnetic storms were associated with the compression of southward magnetic field, which can be classified into (1) the compression between ICMEs (2) the compression between ICMEs and interplanetary medium. It suggests that the compressed magnetic field would be more geoeffective. At the same time, we also find that half of all great storms were related to successive halo CMEs, most of which originated from the same active region. The interactions between successive halo CMEs usually can lead to greater geoeffectiveness by enhancing their southward field B_s interval either in the sheath region of the ejecta or within magnetic clouds (MCs). The types of them included: the compression between the fast speed transient flow and the slow speed background flow, the multiple MCs, besides shock compression. Further, the linear fit of the D_st versus gives the weights of and Δt as α=2.51 and β=0.75, respectively. This may suggest that the compression mechanism, with associated intense B_s, rather than duration, is the main factor in causing a great geomagnetic storm.     

Evaluation of the accuracy of the EIGEN-1S and -2 CHAMP-derived gravity field models by satellite crossover altimetry

Since the advent of CHAMP, the first in a series of low-altitude satellites being almost continuously and precisely tracked by GPS, a new generation of long-wavelength gravitational geopotential models can be derived. The accuracy evaluation of these models depends to a large extent on the comparison with external data of comparable quality. Here, two CHAMP-derived models, EIGEN-1S and EIGEN-2, are tested with independent long-term-averaged single satellite crossover (SSC) sea heights from three altimetric satellites (ERS-1, ERS-2 and Geosat). The analyses show that long-term averages of crossover residuals still are powerful data to test CHAMP gravity field models. The new models are tested in the spatial domain with the aid of ERS-1/-2 and Geosat SSCs, and in the spectral domain with latitude-lumped coefficient (LLC) corrections derived from the SSCs. The LLC corrections allow a representation of the satellite-orbit-specific error spectra per order of the models spherical harmonic coefficients. These observed LLC corrections are compared to the LLC projections from the models variance–covariance matrix. The excessively large LLC errors at order 2 found in the case of EIGEN-2 with the ERS data are discussed. The degree-dependent scaling factors for the variance-covariance matrices of EIGEN-1S and –2, applied to obtain more realistic error estimates of the solved-for coefficients, are compatible with the results found here.     

Volcanic risk ranking for Auckland, New Zealand. I: Methodology and hazard investigation

Volcanic eruptions typically produce a number of hazards, and many regions are at risk from more than one volcano or volcanic field. So that detailed risk assessments can be carried out, it is necessary to rank potential volcanic hazards and events in terms of risk. As it is often difficult to make accurate predictions regarding the characteristics of future eruptions, a method for ranking hazards and events has been developed that does not rely on precise values. Risk is calculated individually for each hazard from each source as the product of likelihood, extent and effect, based on the parameters order of magnitude. So that multiple events and outcomes can be considered, risk is further multiplied by the relative probability of the event occurring (probability_e) and the relative importance of the outcome (importance_o). By adding the values obtained, total risk is calculated and a ranking can be carried out.This method was used to rank volcanic hazards and events that may impact the Auckland Region, New Zealand. Auckland is at risk from the Auckland volcanic field, Okataina volcanic centre, Taupo volcano, Tuhua volcano, Tongariro volcanic centre, and Mt. Taranaki volcano. Relative probabilities were determined for each event, with the highest given to Mt. Taranaki. Hazards considered were, for local events: tephra fall, scoria fall and ballistic impacts, lava flow, base surge and associated shock waves, tsunami, volcanic gases and acid rain, earthquakes and ground deformation, mudflows and mudfills, lightning and flooding; and for distal events: tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, poisonous gases and acid rain, mudflows and mudfills, climate variations and earthquakes. Hazards from each source were assigned values for likelihood, with the largest for tephra fall from all sources, earthquakes and ground deformation, lava flows, scoria fall and base surge for an Auckland eruption on land, and earthquakes and ground deformation from an Auckland eruption in the ocean. The largest values for extent were for tephra fall and climate variation from each of the distal centres. However, these parameters do not give a true indication of risk. In a companion paper the effect of each hazard is fully investigated and the risk ranking completed.