A stochastic method for the prediction of icebreaker bow extreme stresses

It is well established that the ship-ice interaction process is quite complex and associated ice loads on the icebreaker hull is a stochastic process. Obviously, novel accurate statistical methods and models should be developed and applied to estimate extreme bow stresses.This paper studies icebreaker bow stresses based on measured distribution of ice thickness in the Arctic Ocean on the way to and from the North Pole. Since the vessel route was carefully selected searching for easier ice conditions, the Arctic Ocean crossing was not a straight linear but a meandering path. Thus, the specific ship route data was biased with respect to general ice statistics in the region, but true with respect to the route specific ice data encountered by a ship navigating in that region. Therefore the route specific ice thickness data is directly needed for ship design and navigation analysis. It is assumed that captains are competent and knowledgeable, and therefore will select a route that provides the most favourable ice conditions.This paper contributes to study of the newest Chinese self-designed polar icebreaker, serving the purpose of enhancing icebreaker operational reliability. Finite Element Method software package ANSYS/LS-DYNA has been employed to simulate bow stress pattern for a particular icebreaker operating in the Arctic Ocean. Extreme bow stresses were estimated using Naess-Gaidai method. The latter is a first application of Naess-Gaidai method to a distribution with lower bound. Thus this paper aims at introducing an efficient method of estimating route-specific icebreaker extreme bow stresses.     

Climate change and coral reef bleaching: An ecological assessment of long-term impacts,recovery trends and future outlook

Since the early 1980s, episodes of coral reef bleaching and mortality, due primarily to climate-induced ocean warming, have occurred almost annually in one or more of the world's tropical or subtropical seas. Bleaching is episodic, with the most severe events typically accompanying coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomena, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which result in sustained regional elevations of ocean temperature. Using this extended dataset (25+ years), we review the short- and long-term ecological impacts of coral bleaching on reef ecosystems, and quantitatively synthesize recovery data worldwide. Bleaching episodes have resulted in catastrophic loss of coral cover in some locations, and have changed coral community structure in many others, with a potentially critical influence on the maintenance of biodiversity in the marine tropics. Bleaching has also set the stage for other declines in reef health, such as increases in coral diseases, the breakdown of reef framework by bioeroders, and the loss of critical habitat for associated reef fishes and other biota. Secondary ecological effects, such as the concentration of predators on remnant surviving coral populations, have also accelerated the pace of decline in some areas. Although bleaching severity and recovery have been variable across all spatial scales, some reefs have experienced relatively rapid recovery from severe bleaching impacts. There has been a significant overall recovery of coral cover in the Indian Ocean, where many reefs were devastated by a single large bleaching event in 1998. In contrast, coral cover on western Atlantic reefs has generally continued to decline in response to multiple smaller bleaching events and a diverse set of chronic secondary stressors. No clear trends are apparent in the eastern Pacific, the central-southern-western Pacific or the Arabian Gulf, where some reefs are recovering and others are not. The majority of survivors and new recruits on regenerating and recovering coral reefs have originated from broadcast spawning taxa with a potential for asexual growth, relatively long distance dispersal, successful settlement, rapid growth and a capacity for framework construction. Whether or not affected reefs can continue to function as before will depend on: (1) how much coral cover is lost, and which species are locally extirpated; (2) the ability of remnant and recovering coral communities to adapt or acclimatize to higher temperatures and other climatic factors such as reductions in aragonite saturation state; (3) the changing balance between reef accumulation and bioerosion; and (4) our ability to maintain ecosystem resilience by restoring healthy levels of herbivory, macroalgal cover, and coral recruitment. Bleaching disturbances are likely to become a chronic stress in many reef areas in the coming decades, and coral communities, if they cannot recover quickly enough, are likely to be reduced to their most hardy or adaptable constituents. Some degraded reefs may already be approaching this ecological asymptote, although to date there have not been any global extinctions of individual coral species as a result of bleaching events. Since human populations inhabiting tropical coastal areas derive great value from coral reefs, the degradation of these ecosystems as a result of coral bleaching and its associated impacts is of considerable societal, as well as biological concern. Coral reef conservation strategies now recognize climate change as a principal threat, and are engaged in efforts to allocate conservation activity according to geographic-, taxonomic-, and habitat-specific priorities to maximize coral reef survival. Efforts to forecast and monitor bleaching, involving both remote sensed observations and coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models, are also underway. In addition to these efforts, attempts to minimize and mitigate bleaching impacts on reefs are immediately required. If significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved within the next two to three decades, maximizing coral survivorship during this time may be critical to ensuring healthy reefs can recover in the long term.     

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深海系泊法向承力锚模型实验系统

法向承力锚是一种新型的拖曳嵌入式系泊基础.这种锚的工程应用仅有10 a时间.国内在此项技术上尚属空白.通过实验系统的设计,介绍了针对这种新型拖曳锚展开模型实验研究的实验平台.利用一些新型传感器和巧妙的机件设计,不仅实现了实验量测方法的创新,而且达到了经济实用的目的.实验结果也验证了整个系统设计的可靠性.     

可达性度量方法及应用研究进展评述

可达性一直是地理学、土木建筑工程设计、交通运输经济学等学科的研究热点。已有的各 种可达性度量方法目前已广泛应用于交通网络与城镇发展研究、交通基础设施的区域经济效应 评价、选址分析、园林景观规划、社会文化等多个研究领域。随着应用需求的持续加大和技术研究 的不断深入, 可达性度量方法也在快速发展, 其度量体系正在形成。本文首先从两个层面对可达 性的涵义进行全面阐述; 在此基础上, 从网络特性的角度对拓扑法、距离法、累积机会法、等值线 法、重力模型法、平衡系数法、时空法、效用法等目前常用的可达性度量方法进行系统分类, 并且 从可达性影响因素入手对各种度量方法进行综合比较与评述; 然后, 针对不同的应用领域, 对各 种度量方法的应用研究现状进行详细论述与剖析; 最后, 对可达性研究的发展方向进行深入讨论 与展望。     

呼图壁地区震源机制解及构造应力场特征分析

基于新疆测震台网记录的数字地震波形,运用CAP方法测定呼图壁地区2010-01-15~2017-01-02共50次MS≥3.0地震的震源机制解,同时结合早期23次MS≥3.0地震的震源机制解数据,应用MSATSI软件反演研究区时空应力场。结果表明,研究区应力结构类型表现为逆断型,整个区域主压应力P轴近NNE向且倾角较小,说明整个呼图壁地区应力场以NNE向水平挤压作用为主要特征。从空间上看,东部的水平挤压作用更为显著;从时间上看,2010~2016年受到更为显著的NNE向应力场控制,反映了研究区在不同时段应力场的调整变化,但没有改变该区域最大主压应力轴呈NNE向的总体特征,说明整个呼图壁地区可能主要受一种较稳定的NNE向应力场控制。     

晋南地穹列煤层气赋存区构造应力分析

根据晋南地穹列构造型相分析，恢复了4期应力场：①地洼初动期（印支期）近S－N水平挤压；②地洼激烈期（燕山期）NWW－SEE水平挤压；③地洼余动期（喜山早期）NNE－SSW水平挤压；④地洼余动期（喜山中期）NW－SE、NWW－SEE近水平伸展。其现代构造应力场以NW－SE向伸展应力场为主，但在沁水地穹则表现为NEE－SWW向近水平挤压应力场。有限元模拟分析证实：此局部挤压应力场的动力来源于挽近地质时期太行山和霍山的隆起与抬升，临汾地洼和太原地洼中的伸展应力场则与地洼壳体下部慢源物质逸散所导致的侧向拉伸有关。区内应力降的分布特点与晋南地穹列断裂构造发育程度具有良好的对应相关性，在高应力降区，单位体积煤层气含量显著高于其它地区。模拟主应力差等值线图中两个高主应力差值区恰好与东部沁水地穹中两个高含气量区相对应，充分说明地洼余动期构造应力场中高压应力区是煤层气富集的有利地区。     

井筒及围岩应力,应变观测方法研究

采用最新研制的岩体应力、应变匹配传感器对西安立井煤柱开采引起的井筒附加应力特别是对井筒穿过断层附近产生的附加应力进行了较系统的观测，并对观测结果进行了分析和总结。     

三峡工程大江截流的水文技术

鉴于三峡工程大江截流水深大，流量大，工期紧，特别是截流过程中要考虑不断航因素，因此，在大江截流和二期围堰阶段的施工进程中，应充分考虑到各方面的因素，尽可能采取一切减少大江截流和二期围堰施工难度的手段和措施，其中水文测验，水文气象预报，河道观测，水文分析与计算和水力学计算等水文工作则是为顺利实施高质量大江截流的重要条件。