Evaluation of Three Harvest Control Rules for Bigeye Tuna（Thunnus obesus） Fisheries in the Indian Ocean

The stock of Bigeye tuna（Thunnus obesus） in the Indian Ocean supports an important international fishery and is considered to be fully exploited. The responsible management agency, the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission（IOTC）, does not have an explicit management decision-making framework in place to prevent over-fishing. In this study, we evaluated three harvest control rules, i） constant fishing mortality（CF）, from 0.2 to 0.6, ii） constant catch（CC）, from 60000 to 140000 t, and iii） constant escapement（CE）, from 0.3 to 0.7. The population dynamics simulated by the operating model was based on the most recent stock assessment using Stock Synthesis version Ⅲ（SS3）. Three simulation scenarios（low, medium and high productivity） were designed to cover possible uncertainty in the stock assessment and biological parameters. Performances of three harvest control rules were compared on the basis of three management objectives（over 3, 10 and 25 years）： i） the probability of maintaining spawning stock biomass above a level that can sustain maximum sustainable yield（MSY） on average, ii） the probability of achieving average catches between 0.8 MSY and 1.0 MSY, and iii） inter-annual variability in catches. The constant escapement strategy（CE=0.5）, constant fishing mortality strategy（F=0.4） and constant catch（CC=80000） were the most rational among the respective management scenarios. It is concluded that the short-term annual catch is suggested at 80000 t, and the potential total allowable catch for a stable yield could be set at 120000 t once the stock had recovered successfully. All the strategies considered in this study to achieve a ‘tolerable＇ balance between resource conservation and utilization have been based around the management objectives of the IOTC.     

Evaluation of three harvest control rules for Bigeye Tuna (Thunnus obesus) fisheries in the Indian Ocean

The stock of Bigeye tuna(Thunnus obesus) in the Indian Ocean supports an important international fishery and is considered to be fully exploited. The responsible management agency, the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission(IOTC), does not have an explicit management decision-making framework in place to prevent over-fishing. In this study, we evaluated three harvest control rules, i) constant fishing mortality(CF), from 0.2 to 0.6, ii) constant catch(CC), from 60000 to 140000 t, and iii) constant escapement(CE), from 0.3 to 0.7. The population dynamics simulated by the operating model was based on the most recent stock assessment using Stock Synthesis version Ⅲ(SS3). Three simulation scenarios(low, medium and high productivity) were designed to cover possible uncertainty in the stock assessment and biological parameters. Performances of three harvest control rules were compared on the basis of three management objectives(over 3, 10 and 25 years): i) the probability of maintaining spawning stock biomass above a level that can sustain maximum sustainable yield(MSY) on average, ii) the probability of achieving average catches between 0.8 MSY and 1.0 MSY, and iii) inter-annual variability in catches. The constant escapement strategy(CE=0.5), constant fishing mortality strategy(F=0.4) and constant catch(CC=80000) were the most rational among the respective management scenarios. It is concluded that the short-term annual catch is suggested at 80000 t, and the potential total allowable catch for a stable yield could be set at 120000 t once the stock had recovered successfully. All the strategies considered in this study to achieve a ‘tolerable' balance between resource conservation and utilization have been based around the management objectives of the IOTC.     

一次典型高压型海雾过程中海上大气波导的数值模拟

2009年4月9—12日黄海海域发生了一次受高压系统影响的海雾过程。利用卫星观测与探空数据、WRF模式(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)对此次海雾过程及相伴的大气波导进行了观测分析与数值模拟。海雾与波导发展可分为3个阶段:(1)大气波导先于海雾存在于黄海海面;受高压下沉影响,黄海上空存在逆温层和较强的湿度梯度,表现为较强的贴海表面波导和非贴海表面波导。(2)海雾始于高压西部,并随高压系统逐渐东移减弱,向黄海北部扩展;辐射冷却虽然使雾顶附近逆温增强,但海雾的机械湍流使其顶部湿度梯度减小,雾顶附近对应弱悬空波导或波导消失。(3)高压系统影响使干空气下沉到雾区导致黄海海雾消散;雾顶附近逆温仍存在,同时湿度梯度增大,黄海上空逐渐变为非贴海表面波导。本研究结果表明:高压系统不仅极易为波导的发生提供有利条件,而且有利于海雾的生成,在海雾演变过程中主要是雾顶水汽梯度的变化导致了波导类型及强度的变化。     

结合地形因子与分层策略的喀斯特地区无人机影像分类

西南喀斯特山区地形起伏较大,地物分布较为破碎,致使传统的光谱特征一次分类方法的精度较低。本文基于高分辨率无人机正射影像和地形指标,充分利用无人机遥感影像空间特征、光谱特征、纹理特征及地形特征,采取面向对象CART决策树算法与分层策略提取了研究区土地覆盖类型。研究表明,结合空间地形因子和分层策略的方法减少了破碎区地物间的相干扰,故具有较高的分类精度,总体分类精度达91.2%,Kappa系数为0.87,较传统一次分类精度提高了9.8%,Kappa系数提高了0.13。该方法对西南喀斯特地区土地覆盖解译精度较好,可为土地利用监测提供参考。     

某深埋特长隧洞线路比选方案研究

滇中引水工程香炉山隧洞为特长深埋隧洞,起点位于冲江河右岸石鼓镇,终点位于洱海边的长育村,此前已对该段进行东、中、西等多方向的较大范围线路比选[1]。通过已有地质资料进行线路对比,提出了8条比选线路,从各线路长度和形态,存在的主要工程地质问题,隧洞地质、施工条件等进行比较、分析、研究,最终选定中4线为推荐方案。论文简要介绍了隧洞线路选线方案、比选的思路和方法,以期为相关工程的规划设计提供参考。     

国外关键矿产战略研究进展及其启示

近年来,世界各国都将经济发展的重心向战略性新兴产业转移,为保障战略性新兴产业的发展而引发的资源安全保障问题随之而来。一些研究机构和组织纷纷开展关键矿产研究,厘定了关键矿产清单,并提出有针对性的保障措施。然而,目前国内对于关键矿产的研究才刚刚起步,对新兴产业所需矿产的研究偏少,关键矿产定量化研究的方法和指标体系总体以跟踪国外研究为主。系统地剖析了国外主要研究机构的关键矿产评价理论、模型和指标体系,总结了国外关键矿产的基本特征,并结合国内实际提出了加强部门协作、打通产业数据链、开展中国关键矿产评价理论和模型的研究、提高关键矿产供应风险治理的研究等对策建议。     

中国地热研究的进展与展望(1995～2014)

地热是主要地球物理场之一,地热能是地球的本土能源。李四光在20世纪60年代开创了我国地热科学。到90年代,学科体系基本建立。在过去20年里,我国地热研究得到了进一步深化和拓展。本文从大地热流、岩石圈热结构、地热系统、油气盆地地热、矿山地热、天然气水合物以及气候变化等方面回顾地热研究代表性的创新进展,并对深层地热、海洋地热、环境地热等研究方向作了展望。本文认为,过去20年我国地热研究成果丰硕,国际影响力得到提高,未来发展势头强劲。在经历了由浅入深,从今到古的成长之后,地热研究还将不断拓展领域,为我国地球科学,特别是能源与环境安全做出更大贡献。     

温度对煤系泥岩力学特征影响的试验研究

利用RMT-150B岩石力学试验系统和GD-65/150高低温环境箱,对经历不同温度后煤系泥岩的力学特性进行试验研究,分析不同温度下煤系泥岩的应力-应变全过程曲线、峰值应力、峰值应变、弹性模量、变形模量以及泊松比受温度的影响。研究结果表明,不同温度下泥岩的力学特性有差异。随温度的升高,其峰值应力、峰值应变有不同程度的降低,其峰值应力从25℃时的9.153 MPa下降到55℃时的8.271 MPa,降幅为9.6%;峰值应变从25℃时的11.002×10-3下降到55℃时的8.249×10-3,降幅达25.0%。弹性模量随温度的升高逐渐减小,变形模量随温度的升高而增大,泊松比随温度的升高逐渐减小,由此得到各参数变量随温度的变化关系。研究成果可为深井高温软岩巷道的围岩控制提供理论基础。     

过去2000年全球典型暖期特征与机制的模拟研究

本文利用美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)的通用地球系统模式(Community Earth System Model,简称CESM)的低分辨率版本(CESM1.0.3,T31_g37)在国际国内率先进行了多组过去2000年瞬变积分模拟试验,在与历史重建资料和观测资料进行对比验证的基础上,对过去2000年中的典型暖期(中世纪暖期与现代暖期)的特征和成因机制进行了初步探讨,结果表明:中世纪暖期太阳辐射加强是导致其“暖化”的主要原因之一,而温室气体浓度的激增是现代全球变暖的最主要原因;在中世纪暖期,自然因子(包括太阳辐射和火山活动)对降水量的影响之和比温室气体的影响高一个数量级;而在现代暖期,温室气体对降水量的影响比自然因子(包括太阳辐射和火山活动)对降水量的影响之和高一个数量级;在不同外强迫条件下的海表温度变化在热带太平洋区域截然不同,即自然因子影响下为类-拉尼娜态,而温室气体影响下为类-厄尔尼诺态;无论在中世纪暖期还是现代暖期,相对于1000～1850年的平均情况,沃克(Walker)环流均处于增强状态.     

The Key Layout of UK Marine Science and Technology Plans and Some Implications for China

In this paper, we have analysed the major marine research strategies, programs and projects and the overall layout on marine research of the United Kingdom in recent years and found several characteristics: The United Kingdom increased emphasis on the national top-level design of marine research; The marine research infrastructures of the United Kingdom will be given long-term support in the future; Priority areas on marine research in the future will be determine and identified according to the national science and technology status and national needs of national economy; The United Kingdom will focus on ocean acidification, marine renewable energy development and coastal hazards research in the future. Then we gave out some recommendations on our courtry’ development on marine science and technology: Establishing a long-term national marine science and technology strategic plan; strengthening the investment in the important marine research infrastructure; setting several reasonable research priorities according to China’s national strategic needs.