Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part I: Initial uncertainties

This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfalling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions (“initials”, hereafter), which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.     

风暴分类识别技术在人工防雹中的应用

利用新一代多普勒天气雷达资料,在风暴跟踪识别算法的基础上,发展了风暴分类技术,以提高人工防雹作业指挥的效率。首先以SCIT算法为基础,结合风暴的结构特征,综合利用雷达、探空资料,自动提取风暴结构特征指数;其次采用基于决策树模型的风暴自动分类技术,将风暴按强度分为雷雨云、单体风暴、多单体风暴和强风暴;最后根据风暴强度、高度和位置等属性,对有可能产生冰雹的单体,结合GIS,自动对下游方向或附近作业点进行预警或输出作业参数。通过对2006—2014年期间重庆、辽宁大连和河南三门峡三地发生的较为典型的31次冰雹天气过程、182站次冰雹样本的检验来看:该方法通过对风暴按强度、垂直结构等综合属性进行分类,能有效提高冰雹识别的命中率、降低空报率,其中强风暴的命中率能达到100%,空报率仅为11.4%。能有效提高人工防雹作业的自动化程度,对防雹作业的科学决策有着重要参考作用。     

The Exhumation History of North Qaidam Thrust Belt Constrained by Apatite Fission Track Thermochronology: Implication for the Evolution of the Tibetan Plateau

Determining the spatio-temporal distribution of the deformation tied to the India-Eurasian convergence and the impact of pre-existing weaknesses on the Cenozoic crustal deformation is significant for understanding how the convergence between India and Eurasia contributed to the development of the Tibetan Plateau. The exhumation history of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau was addressed in this research using a new apatite fission track (AFT) study in the North Qaidam thrust belt (NQTB). Three granite samples collected from the Qaidam Shan pluton in the north tied to the Qaidam Shan thrust, with AFT ages clustering in the Eocene to Miocene. The other thirteen samples obtained from the Luliang Shan and Yuka plutons in the south related to the Luliang Shan thrust and they have showed predominantly the Cretaceous AFT ages. Related thermal history modeling based on grain ages and track lengths indicates rapid cooling events during the Eocene-early Oligocene and since late Miocene within the Qaidam Shan, in contrast to those in the Cretaceous and since the Oligocene-Miocene in the Luliang Shan and Yuka region. The results, combined with published the Cretaceous thermochronological ages in the Qaidam Shan region, suggest that the NQTB had undergo rapid exhumation during the accretions along the southern Asian Andean-type margin prior to the India-Eurasian collision. The Cenozoic deformation initially took place in the North Qaidam thrust belt by the Eocene, which is consistent with the recent claim that the deformation of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau initiated in the Eocene as a response to continental collision between India and Eurasia. The immediate deformation responding to the collision is tentatively attributed to the pre-existing weaknesses of the lithosphere, and therefore the deformation of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau should be regarded as a boundary-condition-dependent process.     

金川铜镍矿床中新生代抬升冷却过程：来自裂变径迹的证据

本文基于热年代学理论,利用锆石和磷灰石裂变径迹测年数据及对磷灰石热史的模拟,分析探讨金川铜镍矿床在中新生代的抬升冷却过程,认为金川超基性岩体自中生代以来一直处于持续的冷却抬升阶段,且在中侏罗世和晚白垩世早期经历了两期快速的抬升冷却事件,推断此事件与青藏高原后期活动时间相对应,证明金川岩体受到该事件的远程效应波及,致使该矿床遭受了一定的改造。     

矿床保存变化研究的热年代学技术方法

成矿后矿床的保存与变化是矿床地质研究的重要组成部分,但研究程度不高,至今仍属于薄弱环节。矿床的保存与其隆升剥露密切相关,深入细致研究恢复矿区矿床的隆升和剥露历史,是揭示矿床保存变化的一种重要途径。本文重点论述研究矿床保存变化的技术方法,通过综合应用裂变径迹、(U-Th)/He、~(40)Ar-~(39)Ar年代学以及La-ICP-MS、锆石U-Pb定年等多种技术手段,研究成矿期次、构造活动期次以及二者间的联系,定量计算不同矿区、不同矿体、不同部位、不同时间的冷却隆升速率、隆升幅度、剥蚀速率和剥蚀量,探讨矿床保存深度与剥蚀量间的关系,总结不同时代、不同矿区矿床保存-变化过程,建立新的矿床地质-保存环境模型,完善矿床预测的综合示踪标志,最终预测不同矿区、不同地段隐伏矿床可能的产出深度,给出矿床可能已经被剥蚀殆尽的区段或地段,为深部找矿和区域成矿潜力评价提供依据。本文可为地质工作者的相关应用提供借鉴和手段。     

Application of Linear Mean-Square Estimation in Ocean Engineering

The attempt to obtain long-term observed data around some sea areas we concern is usually very hard or even impossible in practical offshore and ocean engineering situations. In this paper, by means of linear mean-square estimation method, a new way to extend short-term data to long-term ones is developed. The long-term data about concerning sea areas can be constructed via a series of long-term data obtained from neighbor oceanographic stations, through relevance analysis of different data series. It is effective to cover the insufficiency of time series prediction method’s overdependence upon the length of data series, as well as the limitation of variable numbers adopted in multiple linear regression model. The storm surge data collected from three oceanographic stations located in Shandong Peninsula are taken as examples to analyze the number-selection effect of reference oceanographic stations (adjacent to the concerning sea area) and the correlation coefficients between sea sites which are selected for reference and for engineering projects construction respectively. By comparing the N-year return-period values which are calculated from observed raw data and processed data which are extended from finite data series by means of the linear mean-square estimation method, one can draw a conclusion that this method can give considerably good estimation in practical ocean engineering, in spite of different extreme value distributions about raw and processed data.     

Exhumation of the Mesozoic Guojialing Granodiorite: Implication for the Preservation of Gold Deposits in the Jiaobei Terrane,China

Preservation conditions are very important for mineral systems and a suitable exhumation process is critical for endogenetic deposits, especially for those deposits formed in orogenic settings, where deposits are inclined to erode away due to strong uplift. The G uojialing batholith, intruding into the L inglong granites and the J iaodong G roup right before regional gold mineralization, is one of the most important gold ore‐hosting M esozoic intrusions in the J iaobei terrane. Gold deposits and the intrusion together underwent similar tectonothermal evolutionary processes. Exhumation and denudation process of the G uojialing granodiorite was constrained by biotite geobarometry and apatite fission track (FT ) analysis. Biotite geobarometric data yields an emplacement depth of 3.0 km, while denudation since 110 M a was calculated from the FT data at about 2.7 km. FT inverse modeling revealed a rapid uplift since ca 100 Ma. Compared with the gold ore‐forming depth which is confined between 2.5 and 9.5 km by fluid inclusion studies, great gold potential in the depths is inferred in the J iaobei terrane. Our result is consistent, to some extent, with the hypothesis of a M esozoic paleoplateau in E ast C hina.     

扬子地台东南缘下寒武统清虚洞组风暴沉积特征及其重要意义

在扬子地台东南缘,下寒武统龙王庙阶清虚洞组主要由浅水碳酸盐岩组成。在野外露头剖面实测和室内镜下薄片观察的基础上,大量风暴沉积被发现于不同剖面清虚洞组的不同层位中,同时大量风暴诱发形成的沉积构造被识别出来,包括侵蚀基底、粗粒滞留沉积、粒序层理、平行层理、丘状交错层理(少见并且值得怀疑)以及沙纹层理,组成了多种类型的风暴沉积序列。结合更靠扬子东南缘的深水剖面中重力流沉积的缺乏,可以推断早寒武世龙王庙期扬子地台的沉积模式为碳酸盐缓坡。结合风暴的形成机制以及清虚洞组风暴沉积的发育特征(尤其是粗粒滞留砾屑的定向排列和典型丘状交错层理的缺乏),可以推断研究区风暴沉积形成于强烈的冬季风暴作用,并且早寒武世龙王庙期华南的古地理位置应当位于中纬度地区,这一结论对一些著名的全球古地理重建方案提出了质疑。同时中纬度地区大规模发育蒸发岩和碳酸盐岩还佐证了寒武纪地球处于热室(Hothouse)时期。     

渤海湾盆地济阳坳陷碎屑锆石裂变径迹年龄记录的构造抬升事件

对采自渤海湾盆地东南部济阳坳陷的碎屑岩进行测年研究,目的是通过碎屑锆石裂变径迹年龄揭示源区及其抬升剥露史和构造热事件,为华北克拉通构造演化特别是元古宙构造演化提供新的热年代学约束。14件上白垩统-上新统砂岩/粉砂岩岩心样品测年结果显示,锆石裂变径迹年龄分布在308±35Ma~145±19Ma之间,且所有单颗粒锆石径迹年龄均大于其沉积年龄,表明这些锆石为碎屑锆石。除1件样品外,其余13件样品的单颗粒年龄的,可以用来识别源区及其构造抬升。未通过χ2检验的锆石二项式最佳拟合峰值年龄集中分为9组:P1(1187Ma)、P2(720~548Ma)、P3(526Ma)、P4(330~319Ma)、P5(296~274Ma)、P6(213~201Ma)、P7(195~177Ma、162Ma)、P8(134~102Ma)和P9(94Ma),加上通过χ2检验的三叠纪(230Ma),指示源区中元古代-晚白垩世经历的9期构造抬升/岩浆活动。它们分别是发生在中元古代的芹峪运动、新元古代的构造抬升(约720~575Ma)、~548Ma的蓟县运动;古生代~526Ma早寒武世末构造运动、海西期构造抬升;晚三叠世印支期挤压构造抬升、早-中侏罗世印支期弱挤压抬升、早白垩世燕山期强烈岩浆活动及晚白垩世燕山晚期的抬升。华北克拉通北缘、克拉通内部古陆和盆地内部是渤海湾盆地上白垩统-上新统的主要物源区,古生代以来剥露速率逐渐增大,古生代、三叠纪、早-中侏罗世和白垩纪分别为0.020~0.033mm/y,0.033~0.042mm/y,0.034~0.049mm/y和0.041~0.097mm/y,反映源区白垩纪构造/岩浆活动最强烈。锆石裂变径迹年龄记录的中元古代-晚白垩世构造运动对探讨华北克拉通的构造演化特别是元古宙的演化提供了年代学证据,综合分析推断华北克拉通可能参与了Rodinia超大陆的形成与裂解。     

两次强降水过程雨滴谱特征及差异

利用寿县观测站内的Parsivel激光雨滴谱仪结合观测站雨量数据及雷达基数据,分析了发生在2015年6月26—30日梅雨期间和2015年8月7—10日超强台风"苏迪罗"影响期间2次强降水过程的雨滴谱结构特征及其差异,拟合了雨强与雷达反射率因子之间的关系。结果表明:雨强的大小直接影响雨滴谱的特征参量,且随着雨强增大而增大;梅雨锋暴雨中1.0mm直径≤1.5mm的粒子所占比例最多,雨强贡献率最大;台风雨中0.75mm直径≤1.0mm的粒子所占比例最多,但1.0mm直径≤1.25mm的粒子对雨强的贡献最大,说明较大粒子对强降水的贡献较大。