基于随机森林的暴雨灾害人口损失预估模型及应用

基于2009—2017年的广西县级暴雨灾情记录,综合考虑致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体因素选取7个解释变量,运用随机森林算法,构建暴雨灾害人口损失预估模型;并以精细化网格降水实况分析和预报产品驱动模型,预估是否发生人口损失。研究结果表明:模型训练样本及测试样本的分类准确率均在90%以上,致灾因子(降水情况)是最主要的解释变量,重要性从大到小依次是前10 d降水距平百分率、过程最大日雨量、最大小时雨量和短时强降水频次。应用智能网格降水产品对广西地区近两年的暴雨灾害过程进行回报试验,准确率超过70%。     

基于机器学习的降雨量雷达回波数据建模与预测

以浙江省2016年1-10月的雷达回波强度数据为基础,分别应用随机森林模型、BP神经网络模型、卷积神经网络模型来预测降雨量并进行对比.建模分析结果表明,随机森林模型预测效果精确度较低,容易低估较大的降雨强度,而BP神经网络和卷积神经网络预测的效果都比随机森林好,特别是卷积神经网络,其预测值与真实值更加接近,且对较大的降雨强度拟合较好.     

Aspects of the cycle of inorganic nitrogen compounds in the tropical rain forest of the Ivory Coast

A partial balance of mineral N is given for the basins of two coastal rivers in a forest zone in the Ivory Coast. The dry and wet depositions on the basin surfaces is given for particulate matter (NO₃ ^–, NH₄ ⁺). The quantity of mineral N washed away in the rivers is evaluated. The losses from leaching of the soils by rainwater are about 0.33 to 1.0% of the atmospheric depositions for NH₄ ⁺–N and 2.2 to 5.8% for NO₃ ^––N. The yearly atmospheric input of N compounds to the ecosystem, about 1.4 g N m^–2 y^–1, is at least 14% of mineral N formed in the soils and is therefore quite significant.     

Carboxylic monoacids in the air of mayombe forest (Congo): Role of the forest as a source or sink

In the tropical rain forests of the Congo during the dry season, from June to September 1987, carboxylic acid partial pressures (P _gas) in the air above the canopy, at ground level, and at the boundary layer, were estimated from water samples such as fog and rainwater. The concentrations of these acids were also measured in the sap of tree leaves. Tree leaves act as a sink or as a source if the acid P _gas is greater of lower than the acid concentrations in molecular form in sap. For each of these soluble gases, there is a value of P _gas where the exchange is nul. This is called the compensation point. Values of the compensation point for some tree leaves were evaluated according to Henry's law. Henry's law coefficients at ppm levels were redetermined for formic (HCOOH), acetic (CH₃COOH), propionic (CH₃CH₂COOH), and isobutyric (CH₃CH(CH₃)COOH) acids.By comparison of P _gas and compensation points, it is concluded that the forest was a potential source for these acids. The soil-or the litter-acts as a significant source of a carboxylic acid of C₃ or C₄ atoms in the aliphatic chain. This carboxylic acid, not yet fully characterized, could play an important role in the rain acidity in forested zones of the equatorial areas.The direct emission of these carboxylic acids by vegetation was the main source in the boundary layer above the forest. The average emissions were 3.1×10⁹, 7.8×10⁹, and 8.4×10⁹ molecules cm^-2 s^-1 for HCOOH, CH₃COOH, and CH₃CH₂COOH, respectively. The savanna is an exogenous source of HCOOH and CH₃CH₂COOH during moderately rainy days for 30% of the time. The ozonolysis of isoprene seems to be a small source of HCOOH.     

海南岛天然橡胶林台风灾害风险评价

台风灾害是海南橡胶种植中影响最为严重和主要的灾害,为对其风险进行定量评估,本研究以海南岛天然橡胶林为研究对象,基于灾害风险评估理论,融合橡胶台风灾害、社会经济和气象数据,建立橡胶台风灾害危险性、暴露性和脆弱性评价模型,利用加权综合评价法开展天然橡胶林台风灾害风险评价。结果表明：海南橡胶种植高风险区位于沿海台风发生频繁市县,其中琼海、文昌、海口为海南岛橡胶灾害风险最高的地区,其次陵水、万宁、琼中、屯昌、东方等地区灾害风险也较高。风险最低地区位于中部五指山、保亭、乐东、三亚等地区,评价结果与实际灾害发生以及种植情况相符。评价结果表明,台风灾害危险性是风险的主导因子,但非单一决定因子,种植技术、品种改良等措施对脆弱性降低起到了较好的促进作用。评价结果可为橡胶林避灾防灾及种植布局提供依据。     

西双版纳热带次生林林窗辐射特征初步研究

利用西双版纳不同季节热带次生林林窗、林内及旷地不同波长太阳辐射的实测资料,比较分析了热带次生林窗不同波长辐射特征。分析得出：热带次生林窗中央与北侧林冠下的不同波长太阳辐射量值在中午前后迅速达到最大后又急速下降的现象明显;林窗内不同波长太阳辐射日总量值均大于林内,小于旷地;林窗中央和北侧林冠下相比较。一般是北侧林冠下的各辐射要素总量值高于林窗中央;林窗区域的总辐射日总量在干热季最高,雨季和雨季后期次之,雾凉季时最小;林窗中央和北侧林冠下的红外辐射及可见光在总辐射中所占份额随季节的变化而不同,充分显示了林窗辐射环境的异质性;与旷地和林内相比,林窗内各测点的红外辐射在总辐射中所占份额高于旷地却低于林内,而可见光占总辐射的比值情况正好相反。     

Past,present and future vegetation-cloud feedbacks in the Amazon Basin

To begin exploring the underlying mechanisms that couple vegetation to cloud formation processes, we derive the lifting condensation level (LCL) to estimate cumulus cloud base height. Using a fully coupled land–ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (HadCM3LC), we investigate Amazonian forest feedbacks on cloud formation over three geological periods; modern-day (a.d. 1970–1990), the last glacial maximum (LGM; 21 kya), and under a future climate scenario (IS92a; a.d. 2070–2090). Results indicate that for both past and future climate scenarios, LCL is higher relative to modern-day. Statistical analyses indicate that the 800 m increase in LCL during the LGM is related primarily to the drier atmosphere promoted by lower tropical sea surface temperatures. In contrast, the predicted 1,000 m increase in LCL in the future scenario is the result of a large increase in surface temperature and reduced vegetation cover.     

Energy Balance Of A Sparse Coniferous High-Latitude Forest Under Winter Conditions

Measurements carried out in Northern Finland on radiation and turbulent fluxes over a sparse, sub-arctic boreal forest with snow covered ground were analysed. The measurements represent late winter conditions characterised by low solar elevation angles. During the experiment (12–24 March 1997) day and night were about equally long. At low solar elevation angles the forest shades most of the snow surface. Therefore an important part of the radiation never reaches the snow surface but is absorbed by the forest. The sensible heat flux above the forest was fairly large, reaching more than 100 W m^-2. The measurements of sensible heat flux within and above the forest revealed that the sensible heat flux from the snow surface is negligible and the sensible heat flux above the forest stems from warming of the trees. A simple model for the surface energy balance of a sparse forest is presented. The model treats the diffuse and direct shortwave (solar) radiation separately. It introduces a factor that accounts for the shading of the ground at low solar elevation angles, and a parameter that deals with the partial transparency of the forest.Input to the model are the direct and diffuse incoming shortwave radiation.Measurements of the global radiation (direct plus diffuse incoming shortwaveradiation) above the forest revealed a considerable attenuation of the globalradiation at low solar elevation. A relation for the atmospheric turbidity asfunction of the solar elevation angle is suggested. The global radiation wassimulated for a three month period. For conditions with a cloud cover of lessthan 7 oktas good agreement between model predictions and measurementswere found. For cloud cover 7 and 8 oktas a considerable spread can beobserved. To apply the proposed energy balance model, the global radiationmust be separated into its diffuse and direct components. We propose a simpleempirical relationship between diffuse shortwave and global radiation asfunction of cloud cover.     

Ozone Production Efficiency in Savanna and Forested Areas during the EXPRESSO Experiment

NO, NO_x, NO_y and O₃ have been measuredduring the airborne EXPRESSO experiment, November 96,which took place near Bangui (Central Africa) at thebeginning of the dry season. This period correspondsto an intense burning activity. Chemical andphotochemical characteristics of the planetaryboundary layer, which corresponds most of the time tothe monsoon layer, and the Harmattan layer, which issituated above the latter, have been studied forsavanna as well as rain forest areas. These two layersare very different when considering the chemicalcomposition (especially for ozone and NO_z) andthe photochemical age.The relationship of photochemical ozone productionversus photochemical NO_x oxidation products hasbeen investigated. Results indicate an ozoneproduction efficiency (OPE) ranging from 6.3 to 14.8in the planetary boundary layer. Thus, this layer ischaracteristic of a photochemically young and activeair mass. In this layer, the ozone potentialproduction increases with the air mass photochemicalage. On the other hand, the Harmattan layer shows anOPE ranging from 4.6 to 7.4. These values arecharacteristic of photochemically well-aged airmasses. In this layer, the ozone potential productionseems to be exhausted with values around 4.0 (i.e., 4ozone molecules produced for each NO_x moleculeemitted).     

Changes to the Surface Level Solar Ultraviolet-B Radiation Due to Haze Perturbation

The South-East Asian region experienced a haze episode in 1994 which was widely believed to be due to widespread forest fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan (Indonesia). Broadband measurements of the surface level solar ultraviolet-B, UV-A and Global radiation at Penang (Malaysia) are used to study the effect of the 1994 haze on effective UV-B irradiance. We find that during the haze episode, there is enhanced absorption of surface level UV-B radiation. The effect of haze on UV-A and Global radiation is much less. The reduction in absolute noon time UV-B irradiance (mostly cloud free) during the 1994 haze period was 23% relative to the UV-B irradiance during thecorresponding haze-free period in 1995. Even though the noon time radiation data minimizes the cloud effect in the results presented some cloud effect is still present.