我国月降水和气温网格点资料的处理和分析

用逐步搜索逼近法的客观分析技术计算出１９５１－１９９２年中国月降水量和月平均气温的格点资料，并利用图象识别原理对格点值和站点观测值进行了比较。     

What has seismic missed?

The relative efficiencies of alternative geometric patterns of both discrete borehole and continuous grid line search have been extensively discussed in the mathematical geology literature. However, an equally important problem has received virtually no attention: How to use a sample of properties of geologic anomalies detected by grid line search of a region to estimate systematically both the number and size distribution of geologic anomalies missed by the search. We show how estimation methods developed in the sample survey design literature can be adapted to this problem, and we apply these methods to data describing 94 anomalies identified by a seismic reconnaissance survey.     

河流污染带的随机模拟方法

根据随机理论，推导了一个描述污染带变化的概率模型，并采用Ｍｏｎｔｅ－Ｃａｒｌｏ抽样法对其求数值解。该随机模型的解是一个随机物，实例计算表明，它的解能够反映任一计算点的浓度变化趋势及范围，并能够给浓度等值线附加上概率的意义，表现了在不确定因素的影响下，污染带随机变化的情况。     

A SEARCH TECHNIQUE FOR CHOOSING OPTIMUM PARAMETERS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION

The steepest descent(or ascent)search is employed for finding optimum diffusion coefficients in T42L9Gmodel,with a view to improving the model's computational stability or prediction accuracy.The method of thesteepest descent search is first described,in which the golden section search is chosen as the fundamental one-dimensional search used in the multi-dimentional steepest descent search,and then the optimization of the dif-fusion coefficients is described.     

PRELIMINARY STUDY OF BAROTROPIC STOCHASTIC DIFFERENCE MODEL APPLIED TO WEATHER PREDICTION

In order to consider both the deterministic and the stochastic property of atmospheric motion simul-taneously,in this paper,the weather prediction is proposed as the problem of the evolution of meteorologicalfield.The historical viewpoint of atmospheric motion is emphasized here.Based on time series analysis te-chnique,a stochastic-dynamical model with multiple initial fields is derived.Thus,weather forecasting is sum-meal up as a problem of solving a set of stochastic difference equations.For the barotropic atmosphere,thenumerical solutions of the equations are obtained by using the method of empirical orthogonal functions(EOF),and examples of medium-range weather prediction are given here.Meanwhile,selecting the order oftime series,i.e.,determining the number of initial fields properly,is also discussed.     

Micro-scale modelling in the study of plume evolution in heterogeneous media

The migration of contaminants in heterogeneous aquifers involves dispersive processes that act at different scales. The interaction of these processes as a plume evolves can be studied by micro-scale modelling whereby two scales, a local- or micro-scale and an aquifer- or macro-scale, are covered simultaneously. Local-scale dispersive processes are represented through the local dispersion coefficient in the transport equation, while large-scale dispersion due to heterogeneities is represented through the resolution of the flow field and the diffusive exchange between streamtubes. The micro-scale model provides both the high degree of resolution compatible with local-scale processes, and the extent required for the approach to asymptotic conditions, using grids of up to a million nodal points. The model is based on the dual potential-streamfunction formulation for flow, and the transport problem is formulated in a natural coordinate system provided by the flownet. Simulations can be used to verify stochastic theories of dispersion, without the restrictive assumptions inherent in the theory. For the two-dimensional case, results indicate convergence of the effective dispersivity to the theoretical macrodispersivity value. Convergence takes place within a travel distance of about 50 correlation lengths of the hydraulic conductivity field. However, the approach taken to asymptotic conditions, as well as the macrodispersivity value, may differ for different realizations of the same medium. The influence of early-time events such as plume splitting on the asymptotic convergence remains to be investigated.     

新型随机地震动模型

在研究结构的随机地震反应时，要用大量的符合场地条件的地震记录作为输入数据。但强震历史记录却不是每个地区都有的，因此根据符合场地条件的现有地震记录建立随机地震动模型具有重要意义。本文利用中国抗震规范2001版修正选取的样本波作为目标波，考虑了幅值和频率的双重非平稳性，建立了新型随机地震动模型——改进的时变ARMA模型随机地震动模型。通过使用残差的卡方检验法，对多种非平稳ARMA模型生成的模拟波进行检验；同时又比较丁模拟波与目标波的功率谱密度图和反应谱图。结果证明：此法能够更精确地反映不同场地条件地震动的频谱和幅值的真实内容，从而建立符合目标场地条件的更为有效的模拟地震动，为相关研究与工程设计架起一座桥梁。     

Stochastic modelling of soil moisture dynamics in a grassland of Qilian Mountain at point scale

Stochastic modeling of soil moisture dynamics is crucial to the quantitative understanding of plant responses to water stresses,hydrological control of nutrient cycling processes,water competition among plants,and some other ecological dynamics,and thus has become a hotspot in ecohydrology at present.In this paper,we based on the continuously monitored data of soil moisture during 2002―2005 and daily precipitation date of 1992―2006,and tried to make a probabilistic analysis of soil moisture dynamics at point scale in a grassland of Qilian Mountain by integrating the stochastic model improved by Laio and the Monte Carlo method.The results show that the inter-annual variations for the soil moisture patterns at different depths are very significant,and that the coefficient of variance(CV) of surface soil moisture(20 cm) is almost continually kept at about 0.23 whether in the rich or poor rainy years.Interestingly,it has been found that the maximal CV of soil moisture has not always appeared at the surface layer.Comparison of the analytically derived soil moisture probability density function(PDF) with the statistical distribution of the observed soil moisture data suggests that the stochastic model can reasonably describe and predict the soil moisture dynamics of the grassland in Qilian Mountain at point scale.By extracting the statistical information of the historical precipitation data in 1994―2006,and inputting them into the stochastic model,we analytically derived the long-term soil moisture PDF without considering the inter-annual climate fluctuations,and then numerically derived the one when considering the inter-annual fluctuation effects in combination with a Monte-Carlo procedure.It was found that,though the peak position of the probability density distribution significantly moved towards drought when considering the disturbance forces,and its width was narrowed,accordingly its peak value was increased,no significant bimodality was observed in the soil moisture dynamics under the given intensity of random fluctuation disturbance.     

Conditional Probability Approach of the Assessment of Tsunami Potential: Application in Three Tsunamigenic Regions of the Pacific Ocean

We develop stochastic approaches to determine the potential for tsunami generation from earthquakes by combining two interrelated time series, one for the earthquake events, and another for the tsunami events. Conditional probabilities for the occurrence of tsunamis as a function of time are calculated by assuming that the inter-arrival times of the past events are lognormally distributed and by taking into account the time of occurrence of the last event in the time series. An alternative approach is based on the total probabilitiy theorem. Then, the probability for the tsunami occurrence equals the product of the ratio, r (= tsunami generating earthquakes/total number of earthquakes) by the conditional probability for the occurrence of the next earthquake in the zone. The probabilities obtained by the total probability theorem are bounded upwards by the ratio r and, therefore, they are not comparable with the conditional probabilities. The two methods were successfully tested in three characteristic seismic zones of the Pacific Ocean: South America, Kuril-Kamchatka and Japan. For time intervals of about 20 years and over the probabilities exceed 0.50 in the three zones. It has been found that the results depend on the approach applied. In fact, the conditional probabilities of tsunami occurrence in Japan are slightly higher than in the South America region and in Kuril-Kamchatka they are clearly lower than in South America. Probabilities calculated by the total probability theorem are systematically higher in South America than in Japan while in Kuril-Kamchatka they are significantly lower than in Japan. The stochastic techniques tested in this paper are promising for the tsunami potential assessment in other tsunamigenic regions of the world.