综合多信息进行地震约束储层随机建模——以准噶尔盆地庄1井区J1S2^2砂组为例

针对地震约束储层随机建模中地震反演波阻抗数据体与岩相概率关系差的问题,提出综合多信息、逐级约束、多级建模的思路方法。首先以地震反演数据体约束建立地球物理特征曲线随机参数场,再以每一个地球物理特征曲线参数场为约束建立相模型,最后以优选的相模型和地球物理特征曲线参数场为约束进行储层参数建模。该方法在井距较大的开发前期评价阶段具有较好的应用效果。     

Similarity of electrophoretic dissolved protein spectra from coastal to pelagic seawaters

Dissolved proteins in seawater samples collected from a coastal area of Tokyo Bay, Sagami Bay and a location off the Kuroshio Current were investigated by one-dimensional sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) and high resolution two-dimensional electrophoresis (2-DE). Four to nine protein bands were detected in SDS-PAGE in the apparent molecular weight (MW) range from 12 kilo Dalton (kDa) to 49 kDa. The 2-DE technique distinguished 10 to 46 protein spots exhibiting isoelectric point (pI)/MW ranging 4.3–9.2/12–63 kDa. The elecrophoretic patterns were similar between the coastal and pelagic samples, as well as previously reported patterns from various pelagic areas. The close similarity of electrophoretic mobility on both SDS-PAGE and 2-DE gels indicates the compositional homogeneity of dissolved proteins in seawater throughout a broad range of marine environments. Proteinaceous dissolved organic matter (DOM) that was unresolved and smeared staining characteristics on both SDS-PAGE and 2-DE gels was first observed in Tokyo Bay waters in the present study and its possible sources are discussed. Although the two protein species, 48 kDa and 39 kDa proteins, have been identified as homologues of Porin P and low molecular weight-alkaline phosphatase of Pseudomonas aeruginosa PAO1, respectively, four strains of P. aeruginosa and two species of Pseudomonas spp. have been newly identified as the source organisms of these proteins using the N-terminal amino acid sequence data determined in previous studies.     

Analysis of stochastic characteristics of the Benue River flow process

Stochastic characteristics of the Benue River streamflow process are examined under conditions of data austerity. The streamflow process is investigated for trend, non-stationarity and seasonality for a time period of 26 years. Results of trend analyses with Mann-Kendall test show that there is no trend in the annual mean discharges. Monthly flow series examined with seasonal Kendall test indicate the presence of positive change in the trend for some months, especially the months of August, January, and February. For the stationarity test, daily and monthly flow series appear to be stationary whereas at 1%, 5%, and 10% significant levels, the stationarity alternative hypothesis is rejected for the annual flow series. Though monthly flow appears to be stationary going by this test, because of high seasonality, it could be said to exhibit periodic stationarity based on the seasonality analysis. The following conclusions are drawn： （1） There is seasonality in both the mean and variance with unimodal distribution. （2） Days with high mean also have high variance. （3） Skewness coefficients for the months within the dry season period are greater than those of the wet season period, and seasonal autocorrelations for streamflow during dry season are generally larger than those of the wet season. Precisely, they are significantly different for most of the months. （4） The autocorrelation functions estimated ＂over time＂ are greater in the absolute value for data that have not been deseasonalised but were initially normalised by logarithmic transformation only, while autocorrelation functions for i = 1, 2 365 estimated ＂over realisations＂ have their coefficients significantly different from other coefficients.     

同步N-策略多重休假的M/M/C/WV排队

考虑同步N-策略多重休假和工作休假M/M/c排队,简记为M/M/c（N-WV）。在休假期间,服务员并未完全停止工作而是以较低的速率为顾客服务。用拟生灭过程与矩阵几何解方法,给出了系统稳态队长和稳态条件等待时间的分布。此外,也得到了队长和等待时间的条件随机分解结构及附加队长和附加延迟的分布。     

具有不同到达率的带有启动时间及不耐烦策略的多级适应性休假M^X/G/1排队

研究了具有不同到达率的带有启动时间及不耐烦策略的多级适应性休假M^X/G/1排队模型,通过嵌入马尔可夫链方法推导出稳态队长的母函数、等待时间的LST（先到先服务规则）,并验证了稳态队长和稳态等待时间具有随机分解性,而且给出了忙期、全忙期及在线期均值。     

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Stochastic Response Analysis of Piled Offshore Platform Excited by Stationary Filtered White Noise

In this paper,the analysis method of stochastic response of piled offshore platform excited bystationary filtered white noise is presented.With this method,the strong ground motion is considered asthree direction stationary filtered white noise process,the theoretic solutions of three special integrationequations are derived with the residue theorem,and the expression of response nodal displacements andmember forces of offshore platform excited by the stationary filtered white noise is put forward.Thestochastic response of a piled offshore platform excited by the stationary filtered white noise,which is lo-cated 114.3m in water depth,is computed.The results are compared with those obtained with the re-sponse spectrum analysis method and the stationary white noise model analysis method,and the corre-sponding conclusion is drawn.     

多维联合概率理论对三峡工程设计洪水的计算

首次将多维联合概率理论应用到三峡大坝设计洪水的风险分析,并用随机模拟方法(ISPUD)对四维联合概率分布进行了求解,得出在长江上游干流及主要支流来水量出现的不同组合和最不利组合情况下,相应三峡大坝不同联合重现期的设计洪水。可用于三峡工程的风险分析及防洪调度。     

发达国家海上搜救体系对比研究及对我国的启示

提升海上应急搜救能力对保障人民生命安全、维护国家海洋权益、彰显大国责任和担当具有积极作用和深远意义。发达国家海上搜救体系的先进性主要体现在搜救力量专业化、应急响应快捷化、组织协调高效化、搜救业务程序化等方面。文中对美国、英国、澳大利亚、日本4个国家的海上搜救组织构成、搜救力量水平、搜救工作模式等进行了分析,与我国海上搜救体系和机制进行了对比,并从优化搜救组织模式、完善搜救运行机制、健全搜救力量等方面给出了发展我国海上搜救体系的建议。     

Joint probability density function of the stochastic responses of nonlinear structures

The joint probability density fimction （PDF） of different structural responses is a very important topic in the stochastic response analysis of nonlinear structures. In this paper, the probability density evolution method, which is successfully developed to capture the instantaneous PDF of an arbitrary single response of interest, is extended to evaluate the joint PDF of any two responses. A two-dimensional partial differential equation in terms of the joint PDF is established. The strategy of selecting representative points via the number theoretical method and sieved by a hyper-ellipsoid is outlined. A two-dimensional difference scheme is developed. The free vibration of an SDOF system is examined to verify the proposed method, and a flame structure exhibiting hysteresis subjected to stochastic ground motion is investigated. It is pointed out that the correlation of different responses results from the fact that randomness of different responses comes from the same set of basic random parameters involved. In other words, the essence of the probabilistic correlation is a physical correlation.