Evaluation of the Reduction in Uncertainty Obtained by Conditioning a 3D Stochastic Channel to Multiwell Pressure Data

A stochastic channel embedded in a background facies is conditioned to data observed at wells. The background facies is a fixed rectangular box. The model parameters consist of geometric parameters that describe the shape, size, and location of the channel, and permeability and porosity in the channel and nonchannel facies. We extend methodology previously developed to condition a stochastic channel to well-test pressure data, and well observations of the channel thickness and the depth of the top of the channel. The main objective of this work is to characterize the reduction in uncertainty in channel model parameters and predicted reservoir performance that can be achieved by conditioning to well-test pressure data at one or more wells. Multiple conditional realizations of the geometric parameters and rock properties are generated to evaluate the uncertainty in model parameters. The ensemble of predictions of reservoir performance generated from the suite of realizations provides a Monte Carlo estimate of the uncertainty in future performance predictions. In addition, we provide some insight on how prior variances, data measurement errors, and sensitivity coefficients interact to determine the reduction in model parameters obtained by conditioning to pressure data and examine the value of active and observation well data in resolving model parameters.     

Propriétés fractales de la fragmentation et processus stochastiques de fracturation : approche géométrique 3D à l'aide du modèle ObsifracFractal properties of fragmentation and stochastic fracturing processes: geometrical 3D approach by OBSIFRAC model

A numerical rock fragmentation model was elaborated, producing a 3D puzzle of convex polyhedra, geometrically described in a database. In the first scenario, a constant proportion of blocks are fragmented at each step of the process and leads to fractal distribution. In the second scenario, division affects one random block at each stage of the process, and produces a Weibull volume distribution law. Imposing a minimal distance between the fractures, the third scenario reveals a power law. The inhibition of new fractures in the neighbourhood of existing discontinuities could be responsible for fractal properties in rock mass fragmentation. To cite this article: L. Empereur-Mot, T. Villemin, C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 127–133.     

Spatial variation of seismic motion induced by propagation of body waves

Spatial variation of earthquake ground motion is an important phenomenon that cannot be ignored in the design and safety of strategic structures. Several models have been developed to describe this variation using statistical, mathematical or physical approaches. The latter approach is not specific to an event. A recent contribution, which uses such an approach and called complete stochastic deamplification approach (CSDA), was developed [1]. The aim of this paper is to analyze the spatial variation of earthquake motion induced by the propagation of body waves using the CSDA. Coherency functions are evaluated for the cases of SH–SV–P waves propagating through stratified soil. Results obtained show that the variation of the coherency function is not the same for vertical and horizontal components and that the motion is more coherent at depth than at the free surface. In fact, we found that the rate of decrease with frequency and distance is not the same if P–SV waves propagate through stratified soil.     

Optimal placement of dampers and actuators based on stochastic approach

A general method is developed for optimal application of dampers and actuators by installing them at optimal location on seismic-resistant structures. The study includes development of a statistical criterion, formulation of a general optimization problem and establishment of a solution procedure. Numerical analysis of the seismic response in time-history of controlled structures is used to verify the proposed method for optimal device application and to demonstrate the effectiveness of seismic response control with optimal device location. This study shows that the proposed method for the optimal device application is simple and general, and that the optimally applied dampers and actuators are very efficient for seismic response reduction.     

河流水质风险评价的灰色-随机风险率方法

提出了量化影响河流水质的随机不确定性与灰色不确定性的水质超标灰色－随机风险率概念，建立了水质超标灰色－随机风险率评价模型。在水质单项参数评价模型中，将河流污染物浓度变量的分布处理成灰色概率分布，将污染物浓度超过水质类别标准值的风险率处理成灰色概率，即水质超标灰色－随机风险率。在水质综合评价模型中，河流水环境系统被考虑为担任某一使用可能的可靠性系统，而任意一种水质参数超标意味着河流水体使用功能不能得到应有的保证，也即表明水体综合评价超标，最后借鉴系统可靠性分析的理论和方法计算水质综合超标率。该方法应用于黄河花园口断面重金属污染风险评价。     

洪水演进三维模拟仿真系统可视化研究

洪水演进仿真系统的研制，是实施“数字流域”工程的重要组成部分；结合洪水演进可视化目标的分析，基于Visual C 系统开发平台，融GIS技术和Opengl开发技术，采用三角形逼近、光滑处理和加入法向量以控制光照的方式，实现了流域地形及河床的三维可视化仿真；应用广度优先搜索算法确定了运动水体与流域河床形态的自适应与自相依的关系，使流域洪水演进模拟具有真实自然的可视化效果。所研制的系统雏形，可有效的模拟流域洪水的三维演进过程；     

美国城市搜索与救援体系的组成及运作模式概述

美国城市搜索与救援体系是世界上最完善的体系之一，多年来在城市救灾和应对突发事件中发挥了重要作用，减轻了生命和财产的损失。文章概述了美国城市搜索与救援体系的组成、任务、运作原则和管理机构及支援机构。     

Efficiency of base isolation systems in structural seismic protection and energetic assessment

This paper concerns the seismic response of structures isolated at the base by means of High Damping Rubber Bearings (HDRB). The analysis is performed by using a stochastic approach, and a Gaussian zero mean filtered non‐stationary stochastic process is used in order to model the seismic acceleration acting at the base of the structure. More precisely, the generalized Kanai–Tajimi model is adopted to describe the non‐stationary amplitude and frequency characteristics of the seismic motion. The hysteretic differential Bouc–Wen model (BWM) is adopted in order to take into account the non‐linear constitutive behaviour both of the base isolation device and of the structure. Moreover, the stochastic linearization method in the time domain is adopted to estimate the statistical moments of the non‐linear system response in the state space. The non‐linear differential equation of the response covariance matrix is then solved by using an iterative procedure which updates the coefficients of the equivalent linear system at each step and searches for the solution of the response covariance matrix equation. After the system response variance is estimated, a sensitivity analysis is carried out. The final aim of the research is to assess the real capacity of base isolation devices in order to protect the structures from seismic actions, by avoiding a non‐linear response, with associated large plastic displacements and, therefore, by limiting related damage phenomena in structural and non‐structural elements. In order to attain this objective the stochastic response of a non‐linear n‐dof shear‐type base‐isolated building is analysed; the constitutive law both of the structure and of the base devices is described, as previously reported, by adopting the BWM and by using appropriate parameters for this model, able to suitably characterize an ordinary building and the base isolators considered in the study. The protection level offered to the structure by the base isolators is then assessed by evaluating the reduction both of the displacement response and the hysteretic dissipated energy. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Theoretical Study on Stochastic Modeling of Combined Gravity-Magnetic-Electric-Seismic Inversion and Its Application

As gravity field,magnetic field,electric field and seismic wave field are all physical fields,their object function,reverse function and compound function are certainly infinite contiuously differentiable func-tions which can be expanded into Taylor (Fourier) series within domain of definition and be further reduced in-to solving stochastic distribution function of series and statistic inference of optimal approximation,This is the basis of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion built on the basis of separation of field and source gravity-magnetic difference-value(D-value)trend surface,taking distribution-independent fault sys-tem as its unit,depths of seismic and electric interfaces of interests as its corresponding bivariate compound re-verse function of gravity-magnetic anomalies and using high order polynomial(high order trigonometric func-tion)approximating to its series distribution,The difference from current dominant inversion techniques is that,first,it does not respectively create gravity-seismic,magnetic-seismic deterministic inversion model from theoretical model,but combines gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic stochastic inversion model from stochastic model;second,after the concept of equivalent geological body being introduced,using feature of independent variable of gravity-magnetic field functions,taking density and susceptibility related to gravity-magnetic func-tion as default parameters of model,the deterministic model is established owing to better solution to the con-tradictioc of difficulty in identifying strata and less test analytical data for density and susceptibility in newly explored area;third,under assumption of independent parent distribution,a real modeling by strata,the prob-lem of difficult plane closure arising in profile modeling is avoided,This technology has richer and more detailed fault and strata information than sparse pattern seismic data in newly explored area,successfully inverses and plots structural map of Indosinian discontinuty in Hefei basin with combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion,With development of high precision gravity-magnetic and overall geophysical technology,it is certain for introducing new methods of stochastic modeling and computational intelligence and promoting the develop-ment of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion to open a new substantial and promoting the develop-ment of combined gravity-magnetic-electric-seismic inversion to open a new substantial path.     

地震灾害现场救援搜索策略与搜索方法有关问题的讨论

对地震灾害现场的搜索策略和搜索方法等有关问题进行了讨论，推荐了常用的搜索策略，对不同搜索方法的利弊进行了分析；对搜索方法的使用也做了讨论。通过讨论，文章就搜索分队的组成、任务、装备和部署等提出了建议。