简单海气耦合的线性和非线性Rossby波

采用忽略Ｒｅｙｌｅｉｇｈ摩擦和Ｎｏｗｔｏｎ冷却的定常，线性大气模式和地转动量近似下的非线性海洋模式。这里包含了大气通过线性风应力影响海洋，海洋通过加热过程影响大气的物理机制。用相平面理论讨论了海气耦合作用对简单耦合线Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波和非线性Ｒｏｓｓｂｙ波的影响。     

Stochastic sketching of infiltration-advance isochrones

A technique has been developed for predicting the irregular advance pattern often observed as water spreads on the surface of the ground. The technique is a combination of stochastic sketching, potential theory, probability theory, and a mass balance equation in the form of an advance equation. The technique can be used on flat as well as sloping terrain and addresses any form of obstructions or constraints to the flow of the water. The stochastic sketching portion of the technique uses cellular automata with transition probability movement rules to sketch the dynamics of small volume water elements in the defined environment. Randomly selected small volume flow path segments are computed and plotted. The envelope of these segments defines the wetted area and the advance front. Several examples are presented showing the patterns produced for various situations.     

A Eulerian air pollution model for Europe with nonlinear chemistry

A long-range transport model with nonlinear chemical reactions is described. The model contains 35 pollutants and 70 chemical reactions. This is a Eulerian model defined on a space domain containing the whole of Europe. The spherical space domain (corresponding to the Earth's surface covered by the model) is mapped into a square plane domain and discretized by using a 32×32 grid. The grid increments are equidistant (both along the Ox axis and along the Oy axis). The choice of values of the physical parameters involved in the model and the numerical treatment of the model are shortly discussed. The model is tested with meteorological data for 1985 and 1989. The numerical results are compared with measurements at stations located in different European countries. Extensive comparisons of ozone concentrations for July 1985 with measurements taken at 24 European stations are also carried out. Results concerning three episodes in July 1985 as well as results obtained in the study of the sensitivity of the ozone concentrations to variations of NO _x and/or anthropogenic VOC emissions are presented. The advantages and the limitations of such a model are discussed. The model is continuously improved by adding new modules to it. The plans for improvements in the near future are outlined.     

监测网的可区分测度

监测网的设计阶段，变形体的变形特性不是完全清楚的情况下，须考虑监测网的可区分测度．本文详细讨论了监测网的可区分问题，导出了有关的公式，并以算例加以分析和说明，最后论述了监测网设计的可区分准则．     

分数布朗运动的小波分析

给出了分数布朗运动的连续和离散小波分析，讨论了有关的性质，并将结果用于分维估值、分数布朗运动小波变换系数的相关性研究等方面．     

清水塘多因复成铅锌矿床地质特征及深边部盲矿体立体定量预测

在综合分析了清水塘矿床地质特征基础上,运用成矿系统功能模拟原理,在矿区内建立了主要矿脉的立体定量预测模型,并在主矿脉的深边部有效地预测了盲矿体,求出了一定的金属矿量.     

Interpolation of runoff applying objective methods

The paper treats the problem of interpolating annual runoff from regular streamflow measurements in a regional scale applying objective methods. These methods are adapted to point processes like temperature and precipitation. Modifications are needed to account for the fact that streamflow is an integrated process following the hierarchical structure of river systems. The most straightforward method is therefore to relate the interpolation to the existing river network. For theoretical reasons it is preferable to interpolate the lateral inflow rather than the flow in the river itself. Procedures for the interpolation with the different approaches are developed and discussed. Special attention is put on the question how the equation of continuity can be satisfied. The Laagen drainage basin in southern Norway is used as a test area. The data consist of annual observations of streamflow and digital map information on river networks and drainage basin boundaries.     

Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*

ABSTRACT

Dealing with uncertainty is key in socio-hydrological analysis. As such, thinking through what uncertainties mean for whom and when is key. This discussion contribution introduces three issues related to defining uncertainties. The first issue deals with the problem of defining uncertainty as a given external reality. The second issue deals with who decides about relevant uncertainties. The third issue deals with the issue whether coupled human-hydrological systems can be seen as existing on their own. Finally, the text provides two examples of hydrological research that try to be explicit about our dealing with multiple (interpretations of) realities.     

A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)

ABSTRACT

Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in southeastern Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the impact of climate changes on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin, in southeastern Europe, to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The latter is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950–2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013–2070.     

Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system coupled with shuffled frog leaping algorithm for predicting river streamflow time series

ABSTRACT

Accurate runoff forecasting plays a key role in catchment water management and water resources system planning. To improve the prediction accuracy, one needs to strive to develop a reliable and accurate forecasting model for streamflow. In this study, the novel combination of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model with the shuffled frog-leaping algorithm (SFLA) is proposed. Historical streamflow data of two different rivers were collected to examine the performance of the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model, six different scenarios for the model input–output architecture were investigated. The results show that the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model (R² = 0.88; NS = 0.88; RMSE = 142.30 (m³/s); MAE = 88.94 (m³/s); MAPE = 35.19%) significantly improved the forecasting accuracy and outperformed the classic ANFIS model (R² = 0.83; NS = 0.83; RMSE = 167.81; MAE = 115.83 (m³/s); MAPE = 45.97%). The proposed model could be generalized and applied in different rivers worldwide.