Sampling and Discrete Choice Analysis

Samples used to estimate discrete choice models in geography and regional science are typically assumed to be simple random samples. This assumption is not always met with existing samples. Furthermore, data collection is usually less costly if a stratified sampling strategy is adopted. Existing sampling theory suggests that stratified sampling can affect the consistency of parameter estimates. This paper reviews the salient points of this theory and relates theory to practice by means of a simple example on housing choice by elderly.     

A note on the characteristics and possible origins of desert varnishes from Southeast Morocco. A reply to comments by R. I. Dorn

This reply to Dorn (1989) argues that a biotic origin is not the only way in which desert varnishes may be formed. It is suggested that a variety of initial conditions may result in similar end products. It is agreed that the dissimilar views of the authors may result from their different philosophies concerning the classification of Mn/Fe varnishes.     

Diffusion models of slope development

This paper represents a systematic investigation of slope evolution diffusion models and has the following sections: (1) The model of slope development with linear coefficient k = k₀x; (2) The model of slope development with quadratic coefficient in x; (3) Slope development model with vertical lowering of base level (downcutting); (4) Slope development model with the base level a horizontal variable (undercutting); (5) Steady-state regime of undercut slopes; (6) Model of a pediment and scree slope formation. The comparison is made between mathematical and classical methods of slope evolution analysis.     

Comparison of taxon calibrations,modern analogue techniques,and forest-stand simulation models for the quantitative reconstruction of past vegetation: A critique

Taxon calibrations based on eastern North America or on the southeastern United States alone suggest a different forest composition from that based on Wisconsin/Michigan, which is argued as preferable. Questions are raised about how well comparison with modern analogues distinguishes forest characteristics. The simulation model used by Delcourt and Delcourt is thought to be inappropriate, partly because it is constrained by faulty climatic data. Models are seen as complementary to other techniques rather than as an alternative methodology.     

Isofactorial models for granulodensimetric data

Existing isofactorial models developed for disjunctive kriging using a cutoff grade on one variable are extended to the bivariate case which arises when dealing with granulo-densimetric data, such as are obtained from coal washing or mineral processing.     

A comparison of two avalanche-models with exemplary avalanches of Tyrol and Switzerland and the effects to hazard zoning

For the purposes of a thesis at the Institute of avalanche and torrent control at the university of agriculture in Vienna a comparison of two avalanche-models, a hydraulic one from Voellmy/Salm/Gubler and a statistical one from Laatsch/Zenke/Dankerl with exemplary exactly known avalanches of Tyrol and Switzerland was started in 1993. The result of this work was that both models failed by the calculation of avalanches with high recurrence intervals (over 300 years). For the calculation of avalanches with recurrence intervals under 300 years the results of both models are regular. The conclusion is that a combination of two models i.e. a hydraulic one improved by statistical calculations will be the best.     

Exploratory spectral analysis of hydrological times series

Current methods of estimation of the univariate spectral density are reviewed and some improvements are made. It is suggested that spectral analysis may perhaps be best thought of as another exploratory data analysis (EDA) tool which complements, rather than competes with, the popular ARMA model building approach. A new diagnostic check for ARMA model adequacy based on the nonparametric spectral density is introduced. Additionally, two new algorithms for fast computation of the autoregressive spectral density function are presented. For improving interpretation of results, a new style of plotting the spectral density function is suggested. Exploratory spectral analyses of a number of hydrological time series are performed and some interesting periodicities are suggested for further investigation. The application of spectral analysis to determine the possible existence of long memory in natural time series is discussed with respect to long riverflow, treering and mud varve series. Moreover, a comparison of the estimated spectral densities suggests the ARMA models fitted previously to these datasets adequately describe the low frequency component. Finally, the software and data used in this paper are available by anonymous ftp from fisher.stats.uwo.ca.     

Field verification of a theoretical model to predict the dynamic response of a soft clay deposit

A 40-m thick clay deposit was subjected to sinusoidal excitations using a foundation block and an eccentric mass type vibrator. The response of the foundation block and the surrounding soil was measured using geophones inside the soil and on the surface. The phase shift between the excitation signal and the response signal, the accelerations of the foundation block and the particle velocities in the soil are compared with those obtained from a frequency-dependent numerical model based on the exact analytical solution for the boundary value problem of a rectangular foundation resting on a linear elastic halfspace.     

Micro-scale modelling in the study of plume evolution in heterogeneous media

The migration of contaminants in heterogeneous aquifers involves dispersive processes that act at different scales. The interaction of these processes as a plume evolves can be studied by micro-scale modelling whereby two scales, a local- or micro-scale and an aquifer- or macro-scale, are covered simultaneously. Local-scale dispersive processes are represented through the local dispersion coefficient in the transport equation, while large-scale dispersion due to heterogeneities is represented through the resolution of the flow field and the diffusive exchange between streamtubes. The micro-scale model provides both the high degree of resolution compatible with local-scale processes, and the extent required for the approach to asymptotic conditions, using grids of up to a million nodal points. The model is based on the dual potential-streamfunction formulation for flow, and the transport problem is formulated in a natural coordinate system provided by the flownet. Simulations can be used to verify stochastic theories of dispersion, without the restrictive assumptions inherent in the theory. For the two-dimensional case, results indicate convergence of the effective dispersivity to the theoretical macrodispersivity value. Convergence takes place within a travel distance of about 50 correlation lengths of the hydraulic conductivity field. However, the approach taken to asymptotic conditions, as well as the macrodispersivity value, may differ for different realizations of the same medium. The influence of early-time events such as plume splitting on the asymptotic convergence remains to be investigated.     

Rainfall-runoff forecasting methods,old and new

Here we review the main thrusts of rainfall-runoff modelling with an eye toward the advantageous use of the massive date sets being accumulated and the modern computers capable of dealing effectively with such sets.More than a tutorial, this study is aimed at providing a unifying structure for analyzing available techniques. The closing section draws attention to the existence of an alternative methodology.