Evolution of fluid flow and heat distribution over geological time scales at the margin of unconfined and confined carbonate sequences - A numerical investigation based on the Buda Thermal Karst analogue

Hydrogeological processes acting at the margins of confined and unconfined thick carbonate sequences are particularly interesting due to a complex system evolution including partial uplift of fully confined carbonate systems and subsequent erosion of cover layers. We provide insights into this evolution by simulating coupled density-dependent fluid flow and heat transport based on the Buda Thermal Karst (BTK) system (Hungary) in a 2D vertical plane. Applying an equivalent porous medium (EPM) approach using the Heatflow-Smoker finite element model, scenario modelling of three evolutionary steps was carried out between the fully-confined carbonate stage through to partly and completely unconfined conditions over the western ridge. The numerical simulations were used to derive the main evolutionary characteristics of groundwater flow and heat transport patterns for the unconfined and confined parts of the hydrogeologic system. The initial fully-confined state led to the development of thermal convection cells due to the insulating role of the low-permeability confining layer, which facilitates buoyancy-driven flow by restricting the dissipation of heat. Over geological time, these cells were gradually overprinted by gravity-driven flow and thermal advection due to uplift of the west ridge. The limited thickness of the cover allowed sufficient water infiltration into the system, which led to increased cooling. Further uplifting led to a prevalence of gravity-driven groundwater flow. The results highlight the critical role of confining formations on flow patterns, and their effect on heat distribution and dissipation over geological time scales. The results have important implications for heat accumulation as well as for the development of a deep geothermal energy potential in confined carbonates.     

热带气旋资料长度对风暴潮危险性评估结果的影响

热带气旋历史样本数不足一直困扰着风暴潮风险评估研究,本文基于西北太平洋62 a(1949-2010年)历史观测热带气旋事件集资料和用随机模拟方法构造的1000 a模拟热带气旋随机事件集,以福建省连江县为例,开展了资料长度对风暴潮灾害危险性评估结果的影响分析。文中用ADCIRC模型模拟了两种数据集强迫下的风暴潮增水,采用极值Ⅰ型分布法得到了典型重现期的风暴潮增水,经过对计算结果分析发现典型重现期的风暴潮增水计算结果与所用数据资料长度有着密切相关性,数据资料越长,结果越稳定。对于1000 a一遇的风暴潮增水值,使用500 a长度的资料已经趋于稳定,并接近用1000 a资料计算得到的结果。在进行风暴潮危险性评估时,相比用几十年尺度的热带气旋历史数据集,1000 a的热带气旋模拟数据集的计算结果更具实际意义。     

A comparative assessment of catchment runoff generation and forest productivity in a semi-arid environment

Understanding the dynamic interactions between forest ecosystems and water in the Mediterranean region is essential for increasing ecosystem services. Even if many studies were implemented to analyse the variations of water and net primary productivity (NPP) in the last decade, this is still an important research question especially for the Eastern Mediterranean, where the research attempts are limited. The main objective of this study was to carry out a comparative analysis of catchment runoff generation and forest NPP and to reveal their temporal dynamics at basin scale in a semi-arid Mediterranean environment. The methodology consisted three steps: (i) estimating catchment runoff generation by implementing process-based J2000 modelling suite, (ii) modelling NPP of the land cover/use types by adapting an ecosystem-process model (BIOME-Biogeochemical cycles) and (iii) assessing the spatio-temporal variability of NPP and runoff dynamics by incorporating the modelling results with multiple regression analysis. Model simulations showed that temperature highly contributed to NPP variations of needle-leaf forests and grasslands. The multiple regression analysis also indicated that runoff was influenced by elevation, precipitation and forest cover. This relationship showed that the inter-annual variability in forest NPP would relate to the variations in runoff distribution across a small Mediterranean subcatchment.     

Automatic near-photorealistic 3-D modelling and texture mapping for rectilinear buildings

Three-dimensional (3-D) representations of urban regions have gained much attention because of recent developments in remote sensing and computer graphics technologies. In particular, textured 3-D building reconstruction for a variety of applications has been a popular research topic in recent years. In this study, we present the reconstruction of 3-D building models along with texture selection and mapping. Extracted two-dimensional building patches and normalized digital surface model (nDSM) data are used to generate the 3-D models. To build near-photorealistic 3-D models, the acquired geo-referenced facade textures are associated with the corresponding building facades using an automated GPS-assisted approach. On the other hand, the modelling and texture mapping of the roof structures were carried out manually. The study area is composed of eight housing estates (blocks), where a total of 110 buildings were analysed. The whole study area was modelled, with facade textures, in less than 1 min of processor running time with an acceptable level of accuracy. The texture mapping was carried out using MATLAB’s Virtual Reality Toolbox?.     

Rainfall-runoff modelling by using SM2RAIN-derived and state-of-the-art satellite rainfall products over Italy

Satellite rainfall products (SRPs) are becoming more accurate with ever increasing spatial and temporal resolution. This evolution can be beneficial for hydrological applications, providing new sources of information and allowing to drive models in ungauged areas. Despite the large availability of rainfall satellite data, their use in rainfall-runoff modelling is still very scarce, most likely due to measurement issues (bias, accuracy) and the hydrological community acceptability of satellite products.In this study, the real-time version (3B42-RT) of Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis, TMPA, and a new SRP based on the application of SM2RAIN algorithm (Brocca et al., 2014) to the ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) soil moisture product, SM2R_ASC, are used to drive a lumped hydrologic model over four basins in Italy during the 4-year period 2010–2013.The need of the recalibration of model parameter values for each SRP is highlighted, being an important precondition for their suitable use in flood modelling. Results shows that SRPs provided, in most of the cases, performance scores only slightly lower than those obtained by using observed data with a reduction of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NS) less than 30% when using SM2R_ASC product while TMPA is characterized by a significant deterioration during the validation period 2012–2013. Moreover, the integration between observed and satellite rainfall data is investigated as well. Interestingly, the simple integration procedure here applied allows obtaining more accurate rainfall input datasets with respect to the use of ground observations only, for 3 out 4 basins. Indeed, discharge simulations improve when ground rainfall observations and SM2R_ASC product are integrated, with an increase of NS between 2 and 42% for the 3 basins in Central and Northern Italy. Overall, the study highlights the feasibility of using SRPs in hydrological applications over the Mediterranean region with benefits in discharge simulations also in well gauged areas.     

BDS/GPS短期ISB建模和预报的Kalman滤波方法

ISB是多系统PPP数据处理中必须要考虑的一项误差,因此有必要对BDS/GPS短期ISB建模和预报进行研究。为了提高ISB预报精度,针对等权LS(least square)估计ISB模型参数时忽略了拟合数据权重不同的问题,提出了采用Kalman滤波对模型参数进行估计,并根据ISB拟合数据距预报时刻的远近调整Kalman滤波拟合数据的方差。本文采用7d的ISB数据进行建模,根据所建模型预报第8天的ISB值,并对预报精度和定位结果进行了验证。进行试验的4个测站Kalman拟合模型的ISB预报精度比LS拟合模型分别提高了29.7%、11.5%、43.5%和32.0%。采用Kalman拟合模型的ISB预报值作为先验约束,PPP平均定位精度在E和U方向上比采用LS拟合模型预报值分别多提高了2.7%和0.9%,比不加ISB先验约束在E、N、U方向分别提高了10.6%、26.3%和3.4%。     

2-D and 3-D modelling of wide-angle seismic data: an example from the Vøring volcanic passive margin

This study presents the modelling of 2-D and 3-D wide-angle seismic data acquired on the complex, volcanic passive margin of the Vøring Plateau, off Norway. Three wide-angle seismic profiles were shot and recorded simultaneously by 21 Ocean Bottom Seismometers, yielding a comprehensive 3-D data set, in addition to the three in-line profiles. Coincident multi-channel seismic profiles are used to better constrain the modelling, but the Mesozoic and deeper structures are poorly imaged due to the presence of flood basalts and sills. Velocity modelling reveals an unexpectedly large 30 km basement high hidden below the flood basalt. When interpreted as a 2-D structure, this basement high produces a modelled gravity anomaly in disagreement with the observed gravity. However, both the gravity and the seismic data suggest that the structure varies in all three directions. The modelling of the entire 3-D set of travel times leads to a coherent velocity structure that confirms the basement high; it also shows that the abrupt transition to the slower Cretaceous basin coincides in position and orientation with the fault system forming the Rån Ridge. The positive gravity anomaly over the Rån Ridge originates from the focussed and coincident elevation of the high velocity lower crust and pre-Cretaceous basement. Although the Moho is not constrained by the seismic data, the gravity modelled from the 3-D velocity model shows a better fit along the profiles. This study illustrates the interest of a 3-D acquisition of wide-angle seismic over complex structures and the benefit of the subsequent integrated interpretation of the seismic and gravity data.