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A real-time, event-triggered storm surge forecasting system for the state of North Carolina 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
A new real-time, event-triggered storm surge prediction system has been developed for the State of North Carolina to assist emergency managers, policy-makers and other government officials with evacuation planning, decision-making and resource deployment during tropical storm landfall and flood inundation events. The North Carolina Forecast System (NCFS) was designed and built to provide a rapid response assessment of hurricane threat, accomplished by driving a high-resolution, two-dimensional, depth-integrated version of the ADCIRC (Advanced Circulation) coastal ocean model with winds from a synthetic asymmetric gradient wind vortex. These parametric winds, calculated at exact finite-element mesh node locations and directly coupled to the ocean model at every time step, are generated from National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast advisories the moment they are inserted into the real-time weather data stream, maximizing the number of hours of forecast utility. Tidal harmonic constituents are prescribed at the open water boundaries and applied as tidal potentials in the interior of the ocean model domain. A directional surface roughness parameterization that modulates the wind speed at a given location based on the types of land cover encountered upwind, a forest canopy sheltering effect, and a spatially varying distribution of Manning’s–n friction coefficient used for computing the bottom/channel bed friction are also included in the storm surge model. Comparisons of the simulated wind speeds and phases against their real meteorological counterparts, of model elevations against actual sea surface elevations measured by NOAA tide gauges along the NC coast, and of simulated depth-averaged current velocities against Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) data, indicate that this new system produces remarkably realistic predictions of winds and storm surge. 相似文献
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江苏大丰潮滩潮流边界层特征研究 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
2003年7月中小潮期间使用MIDAS-400用户化数据采集系统在江苏大丰潮滩上进行了垂向多层位同步的流速和悬沙浓度观测。根据观测资料研究了潮流作用下的潮滩底部边界层过程,结果表明,观测地点的潮汐不对称现象十分明显,落潮流速、历时和输水输沙量皆明显大于涨潮;在潮周期内的多数时间里流速剖面符合对数分布,但在风力较强、水流快速增加和流速缓慢的情况下,流速剖面常偏离对数分布;悬沙颗粒垂向混合均匀,悬沙浓度剖面符合Rouse公式;落潮时的底部切应力和摩阻流速明显大于涨潮,摩阻流速与各水层流速通常有较好的线性关系;滩面糙度主要与沙纹形态和推移质运动强度有关,它与摩阻流速存在密切关系;悬沙浓度具有明显的减阻效应,受其影响,摩阻流速和底部切应力分别减小了28%~41%和40%~62%。 相似文献
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The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters of body width(BW)to body length(BL)ratio(BW/BL)and of body weight traits(BWT)in turbot,and to elucidate the genetic mechanism of the two traits during ontogeny by dynamic genetic analysis.From 3 to 27 months,BW,BL and BWT of each communally stocked fish were measured every 3 months.The BW/BL ratio was measured at different sampling ages.A twotrait animal model was used for genetic evaluation of traits.The results showed that the heritability values of BW/BL ratio ranged from 0.2168 to 0.3148,corresponding to moderate heritability.The BWT heritability values ranged from 0.2702 to 0.3479 corresponding to moderate heritability.The heritability of BW/BL ratio was lower than that of BWT,except at 3 months of age.Genetic correlation between BW/BL ratio and BWT decreased throughout the measurement period.Genetic correlations were higher than the phenotypic correlations.The current results for estimating genetic parameters demonstrate that the BW/BL ratio could be used as a phenotypic marker of fast-growing turbot,and the BW/BL ratio and BWT could be improved simultaneously through selective breeding. 相似文献
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在前人提出的地震预测方法基础上提出一种地震学综合预测方法。 首先利用动态图像方法(地震条带与地震空区)大致确定潜在地震危险区; 然后利用中、 强地震产生的库仑应力确定孕震区; 最后利用地震矩快速释放模型和相关长度增长模型判断孕震区是否进入短临状态。 在地震三要素预测中, 发挥地震学典型预测方法的优势, 并且对相关性较小的预测方法的预测结论相互对比、 印证, 以便得出更可靠的预测结果。 文中还利用这种综合预测方法对1983年菏泽5.9级做了简略研究, 结果表明这种综合预测方法的预测结果和菏泽地震基本上是一致的。 相似文献
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古尔班通古特沙漠是中国第二大沙漠,也是中国固定和半固定沙丘主要分布区,固沙灌木种较多。冠幅不仅是反映固沙灌木可视化的重要参数,也是反映沙漠植被生长情况的重要变量。以3种沙丘(固定沙丘、半固定沙丘和流动沙丘)上主要固沙灌木为研究对象,利用12种基础模型、BP(Backpropagation Neural Network)神经网络和支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)机器学习算法建立了基于固沙灌木株高和冠长率的冠幅预测模型,同时将两种机器学习算法拟合结果与基础模型进行比较,最终选出了适合研究区的冠幅预测模型。结果表明:(1)不同沙丘类型和不同灌木种类的最优冠幅预测模型不同,且固定沙丘和半固定沙丘模型优于流动沙丘。3种沙丘类型最优拟合为M2(Quadratic Model)模型;(2)白梭梭(Haloxylon persicum)在半固定沙丘和流动沙丘上拟合的最优模型分别为M2、M7(Gompertz),沙拐枣(Calligonum mongolicum)最优模型为M2,蛇麻黄(Ephedra distachya)和油蒿(Artemisia ordosica)在... 相似文献
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以西北半干旱地区的内蒙古农牧交错地带锡林郭勒盟为研究区,以不同退化程度的草地为研究对象,通过叶面积指数计算各像元的动力传输粗糙度长度,以改进显热通量算法;并结合植被/土壤组分温度分别计算基于亚像元的植被/土壤的显热通量。由敏感性分析和模型验证表明,改进的显热通量算法能够提高区域尺度的能量平衡计算精度。 相似文献
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The current study provides long-term catch-rate, biological and feeding data for smooth hammerhead sharks, Sphyrna zygaena, caught in South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal bather protection programme. In total, 2 512 S. zygaena were caught in net installations between 1978 and 2014, and 72 S. zygaena were caught on drumlines between 2007 and 2014. There was no significant log-linear year trend in the net catch rate over time (slope = 0.0054, t = 1.808, p = 0.07). However, there was a significant temporal increase in mean size of the captured sharks (slope = 0.0012, t = 3.502, p < 0.001). A quasi-Poisson generalised additive mixed model showed that increasing latitude, winter months, colder sea temperatures and the deployment of drumlines all had a significant positive effect on the catch rate of sharks in nets. The size frequency of the catch was unimodal, with significantly more females caught in the nets and more males on the drumlines. The majority (93.1%) of all sharks caught were immature and measured between 80 and 120 cm precaudal length. Teleosts and cephalopods dominated the sharks’ diet in terms of all dietary indices. The prey species consumed indicate that immature S. zygaena are feeding primarily within the pelagic zone of shallow coastal habitats. 相似文献