Multi-objective, multiple participant decision support for water management in the Andarax catchment, Almeria

Water management in the Andarax river basin (Almeria, Spain) is a multi-objective, multi-participant, long-term decision-making problem that faces several challenges. Adequate water allocation needs informed decisions to meet increasing socio-economic demands while respecting the environmental integrity of this basin. Key players in the Andarax water sector include the municipality of Almeria, the irrigators involved in the intensive greenhouse agricultural sector, and booming second residences. A decision support system (DSS) is developed to rank different sustainable planning and management alternatives according to their socio-economic and environmental performance. The DSS is intimately linked to sustainability indicators and is designed through a public participation process. Indicators are linked to criteria reflecting stakeholders concerns in the 2005 field survey, such as fulfilling water demand, water price, technical and economical efficiency, social and environmental impacts. Indicators can be partly quantified after simulating the operation of the groundwater reservoir over a 20-year planning period and partly through a parallel expert evaluation process. To predict the impact of future water demand in the catchment, several development scenarios are designed to be evaluated in the DSS. The successive multi-criteria analysis of the performance indicators permits the ranking of the different management alternatives according to the multiple objectives formulated by the different sectors/participants. This allows more informed and transparent decision-making processes for the Andarax river basin, recognizing both the socio-economic and environmental dimensions of water resources management.     

混沌时间序列支持向量机模型及其在径流预测中应用

以重构相空间理论为基础,探讨了混沌时间序列的支持向量机预测模型建模的思路、特点及关键参数的选取。利用饱和关联维数法进行相空间重构,并运用改进小数据量法计算最大Lyapunov指数,对宜昌站月径流时间序列进行混沌特性识别。在运用混沌时间序列的支持向量机模型对月径流预测的应用中,引入了径向基核函数,简化了非线性问题的求解过程。实例表明,该模型能较好地处理复杂的水文序列,具有较高的泛化能力和很好的预测精度。     

紧邻地铁的深基坑支护施工技术

深圳星河酒店基坑两侧紧邻地铁,周边环境复杂,开挖深度达18．6m。该基坑支护主要为钻孔及人工挖孔咬合桩,为适应基坑周围环境的多样性,还采用了锚杆、植筋墙,利用结构本体换撑,静爆加切割拆除内支撑等工艺。分析了该基坑不同部位水平位移的原因,及基坑变形特征。经监测,基坑变形各项指标均在设计的控制标准之内,取得了令人满意的基坑支护效果。可供类似工程借鉴。     

π型钢循环迈步支架在开采中厚煤层中的应用

在中厚煤层开采中,通过改进采煤工艺,采用“型钢循环迈步式支架代替高档炮采工作面常规的铰接顶梁支护工艺,在减少煤炭丢失的同时提高了资源回收率,也杜绝了老空区因丢失的煤炭自燃而引发的矿井火灾。     

基于知识的选址决策支持系统

针对选址决策特点,提出了基于知识的选址决策支持系统模型、结构,重点分析了系统知识获取、知识库设计和分层次推理策略;在知识获取中,引入知识挖掘手段,实现系统部分知识的自动获取.从决策目标和规则生成、适宜性推理、决策推理等方面,探索智能化选址空间决策支持系统的构建方法,实现了与GIS、应用分析模型的紧密耦合集成,并用实例分析说明了系统的信息处理流程和可行性.     

Multiple-Point Simulations Constrained by Continuous Auxiliary Data

An important issue of using the multiple-point (MP) statistical approach for reservoir modeling concerns the integration of auxiliary constraints derived, for instance, from seismic information. There exist two methods in the literature for these non-stationary MP simulations. One is based on an analytical approximation (the “τ-model”) of the conditional probabilities that involve auxiliary data. The degree of approximation with this method depends on the parameter τ, whose inference is difficult in practice. The other method is based on the inference of these conditional probabilities directly from training images. This method classifies the auxiliary data into a few classes. This classification is in general arbitrary and therefore inconvenient in practice, especially in the case of continuous auxiliary constraints. In this paper, we propose an alternative method for performing non-stationary MP simulations. This method accounts for the data support in the modeling procedure and allows, in particular, continuous auxiliary data to be integrated into MP simulations. This method avoids the major limitations of the previous methods, namely the use of an approximate analytical model and the reduction of the auxiliary data into a limited number of classes. This method can be easily implemented in the existing MP simulation codes. Numerical tests show good performance of this method both in reproducing the geometrical features of the training image and in honouring the auxiliary data.     

南乔治亚岛2016 年冬季大风天气特征分析

南乔治亚岛大风天气较为频繁, 天气形势复杂多变。通过对2016 年冬季的随船观测, 结合地面天气 图分析得出, 随船观测期间所有大风天气都由气旋直接或间接造成, 共归纳出3 种造成南乔治亚岛大风的 天气形势: 单一气旋型, 北高南低型和西高东低型。单一气旋型持续时间较短。北高南低型持续时间较长, 对南极磷虾渔船作业影响最大。西高东低型持续时间最短, 往往是鞍型气压场东移造成, 风急浪大, 且风向 与常年西风不同, 需特别注意渔船避风避浪方式。     

洞庭湖生态经济区生态服务供需平衡研究

基于洞庭湖生态经济区土地覆被类型和土地利用现状,测算并研究区域内供给服务、调节服务、支持服务和文化服务及生态服务总量供给的价值当量;根据国家相关建设指标规定和人均资源消耗量,估算各项生态服务需求量价值当量;进而对区域内生态服务的供—需盈亏状态进行分析。结果表明：① 洞庭湖生态经济区各项生态服务及生态服务总量供需状况良好,供需比均大于1.2;② 不同生态服务供需状况存在差异,支持服务（1.46）>调节服务（1.44）>供给服务（1.39）>文化服务（1.28）;③ 供需比在空间上整体呈现“四周高中间低”的分布模式,北侧荆州供需比偏低;④ 城乡供需状况差异显著。本次研究囿于行政边界,基于自然边界的供需状况研究有待深入。     

What explains public support for climate policies? A review of empirical and experimental studies

The lack of broad public support prevents the implementation of effective climate policies. This article aims to examine why citizens support or reject climate policies. For this purpose, we provide a cross-disciplinary overview of empirical and experimental research on public attitudes and preferences that has emerged in the last few years. The various factors influencing policy support are divided into three general categories: (1) social-psychological factors and climate change perception, such as the positive influences of left-wing political orientation, egalitarian worldviews, environmental and self-transcendent values, climate change knowledge, risk perception, or emotions like interest and hope; (2) the perception of climate policy and its design, which includes, among others, the preference of pull over push measures, the positive role of perceived policy effectiveness, the level of policy costs, as well as the positive effect of perceived policy fairness and the recycling of potential policy revenues; (3) contextual factors, such as the positive influence of social trust, norms and participation, wider economic, political and geographical aspects, or the different effects of specific media events and communications. Finally, we discuss the findings and provide suggestions for future research.

Policy relevance

Public opinion is a significant determinant of policy change in democratic countries. Policy makers may be reluctant to implement climate policies if they expect public opposition. This article seeks to provide a better understanding of the various factors influencing public responses to climate policy proposals. Most of the studied factors include perceptions about climate change, policy and its attributes, all of which are amenable to intervention. The acquired insights can thus assist in improving policy design and communication with the overarching objective to garner more public support for effective climate policy.     

居民地要素化简的形状识别与模板匹配方法

针对居民地要素的分布和表达具有典型模板化特点,本文通过对其形状结构和区域环境进行分析,运用形态抽象概括和区域环境典型化基本原则构建一批模板作为居民地目标化简与典型化表达的候选形状,并基于转角函数的形状描述算子,计算居民地目标与模板之间的相似性程度。该方法从形状认知的角度出发,通过寻找与目标形状结构特征相似的模板替换原目标来完成化简操作,能较好地保持居民地目标的整体形状结构特征,同时兼顾了综合前后的面积均衡。通过真实数据进行试验,结果表明该方法具有较强的可靠性和实用性,可规模化应用于地形图上的地图综合实践。