3XMM J185246.6+003317 as transient neutron star

We performed an X‐ray timing and spectral analysis of the variable source 3XMM J185246.6+003317 to investigate its physical nature. The data from all observations of 3XMMJ185246.6+003317 conducted by XMM‐Newton EPIC MOS1 and MOS2 with the same instrumental setup in 2004–2009 were reprocessed to form a homogenous data set of solar barycenter corrected photon arrival times and high S/N spectra of 3XMM J185246.6+003317. A Bayesian method for the search, detection, and estimation of the parameters of a periodic signal of unknown shape was employed, as developed by Gregory & Loredo (1992, 1993). The results show that 3XMM J185246.6+003317 is a transient neutron star with the genuine spin‐period of 23.11722 (23.11711–23.11727) s and its derivative of 5.3(0.3–5.5)×10^–11 s s^–1, implying a characteristic age of 7 (6–104) kyr, if the period derivative can be ascribed to the genuine spin‐down rate of the neutron star. The rotational‐phase averaged X‐ray spectra at the different brightness periods can be fitted with a highly absorbed blackbody model with different temperatures. The phase‐folded light curves in different energy bands with high S/N ratio show a double‐peaked profile; the variations depend on time and energy, indicating that radiation emerges from at least two emitting areas. The spectra at the phases corresponding to the maxima in the phase‐folded light curve show different spectral parameters of absorbed blackbody radiation, i.e. the hotter one has a smaller size. The source is detected only from September 2008 to April 2009 with persistently decreasing brightness, but not before, even though it was observed by XMM. Hence, it is a transient neutron star or a binary system hosting it. (© 2015 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

修正的Neupert效应

Neupert效应的定性描述是耀斑中脉冲分量(硬X射线、微波暴)与渐变分量(软X射线发射)之间存在的因果关系,即耀斑最初的能量是以加速粒子的形式释放,加速的电子在大气传输过程中产生非热硬X射线轫致辐射,并加热大气,耀斑软X射线发射是高能粒子注入大气的响应.根据经典Neupert效应的定量描述,硬X射线发射(表征非热电子注入)结束时软X射线应该立刻达到极大,但以往的观测发现一些耀斑软X射线峰值时间(t2)明显晚于硬X射线结束时间(t1)(τ=t2–t1,τ 0),热与非热辐射之间存在明显的偏离经典Neupert效应的情况.为了研究偏离经典Neupert效应的事件,在2002—2015年间的RHESSI (Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager)和GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites)耀斑列表中,按照在25–50 keV范围内光变较简单、软X射线有对应发射峰等判据,共选择276个耀斑样本,统计了这些耀斑的τ分布、环长d (用双足点源之间的距离来表征)与τ的关系.结果显示:(1)有227个耀斑τ 0,即有约82%的耀斑偏离经典Neupert效应;(2)τ与d之间存在一定的线性相关,即环越长,软X射线极大的时间越延后;(3)似乎存在一个临界距离,当环长小于临界距离时,经典Neupert效应成立.这些结果印证了修正Neupert效应的必要性,并对其物理意义进行了讨论.     

Estuary/ocean exchange and tidal mixing in a Gulf of Maine Estuary: A Lagrangian modeling study

A Lagrangian particle method embedded within a 2-D finite element code, is used to study the transport and ocean–estuary exchange processes in the well-mixed Great Bay Estuarine System in New Hampshire, USA. The 2-D finite element model, driven by residual, semi-diurnal and diurnal tidal constituents, includes the effects of wetting and drying of estuarine mud flats through the use of a porous medium transport module. The particle method includes tidal advection, plus a random walk model in the horizontal that simulates sub-grid scale turbulent transport processes. Our approach involves instantaneous, massive [O(500,000)] particle releases that enable the quantification of ocean–estuary and inter-bay exchanges in a Markovian framework. The effects of the release time, spring–neap cycle, riverine discharge and diffusion strength on the intra-estuary and estuary–ocean exchange are also investigated.The results show a rather dynamic interaction between the ocean and the estuary with a fraction of the exiting particles being caught up in the Gulf of Maine Coastal Current and swept away. Three somewhat different estimates of estuarine residence time are calculated to provide complementary views of estuary flushing. Maps of residence time versus release location uncover a strong spatial dependency of residence time within the estuary that has very important ramifications for local water quality. Simulations with and without the turbulent random walk show that the combined effect of advective shear and turbulent diffusion is very effective at spreading particles throughout the estuary relatively quickly, even at low (1 m²/s) diffusivity. The results presented here show that a first-order Markov Chain approach has applicability and a high potential for improving our understanding of the mixing processes in estuaries.     

天津沿海风暴潮灾害近20年统计及其成因分析(英文)

根据塘沽海洋环境监测站从1991~2010年,20年的潮汐资料进行统计分析,分析得到天津平均每年发生近10年的100 cm以上的增水过程,天津沿海夏秋两季的最高潮位和平均潮位最高,且最大增水值多出现在夏秋两季,超过100 cm的增水天数多集中在春季和秋冬季,并从天文潮因素、气象因素、海平面上升、地面沉降,以及地理因素等,总结了天津沿海风暴潮灾害的成因,最后提出了相应的风暴潮灾害防范措施。     

珠江口外陆架表层沉积物的地球化学分区

根据249个表层沉积物样品的Ca,Al,N,P,Mg,Fe,Mn,Ti和有机碳的测定数据,利用稳健RQ型主分量分析及Q型聚类分析方法,对珠江口外陆架表层沉积物进行了地球化学分类,并将该陆架区划分成陆源细碎屑沉积区、经叠加改造的残留泥砂质沉积区、生物碎屑沉积区以及高能环境下的石英砂质沉积区。结果表明了稳健统计方法相对于传统统计方法的优越性,以及采用稳健主分量的Q载荷进行聚类分析相对于用原始变量进行聚类分析的优越性。     

梅雨与热带气旋活动的关系

本文利用1957～1998年的资料,以统计分析的方法,对长江中下游梅雨及热带气旋活动的对应关系进行了初步分析,归纳出几点有参考价值的结论以求对热带气旋活动的长期预报有所裨益。     

Validation of ship manoeuvring models using metamodels

This paper describes how simplified auxiliary models—metamodels—can be used to create benchmarks for validating ship manoeuvring simulation models. A metamodel represents ship performance for a limited range of parameters, such as rudder angles and surge velocity. In contrast to traditional system identification methods, metamodels are identified from multiple trial recordings, each containing data on the ship’s inherent dynamics (similar for all trials) and random disturbances such as environmental effects and slightly different loading conditions. Thus, metamodels can be used to obtain these essential data, where simple averaging is not possible. In addition, metamodels are used to represent a ship’s behaviour and not to obtain physical insights into ship dynamics. The experimental trials used for the identification of metamodels can be found in in-service recorded data. After the metamodel is identified, it is used to simulate trials without substantial deviations from the ship state parameters used for the identification. Subsequently, the predictions of the metamodels are compared with the predictions of a tested manoeuvring simulation model. We present two case studies to demonstrate the application of metamodels for moderate turning motions of two ships.