南海某导管架海洋平台倒塌分析

针对在役老龄导管架平台进行倒塌计算分析,确定极限承载力进而评估老龄导管架的安全裕度。采用非线性有限元方法,考虑平台的波流载荷及桩-土的非线性相互作用,利用SACS软件建立导管架整体三维有限元计算分析模型,并用逐步加载的方式,对南海某导管架平台进行了全过程非线性倒塌分析。计算分析表明,该导管架平台极限强度很高,具有较大的安全裕度;导管架倒塌过程呈逐步破坏形式,先是撑杆屈服,造成局部结构破坏,然后是钢桩发生屈服,降低结构承载力,最后节点逐步失效,造成结构倒塌。揭示了导管架平台结构失效倒塌的机理,给出了倒塌分析的可行方法和步骤。     

喜马拉雅山北坡卡鲁雄曲径流与气候变化

以冰川融水补给为主的喜马拉雅山北坡的卡鲁雄曲流域,近20年平均气温以0.34 ^oC/10a的趋势上升,高于西藏年均温0.26 ^oC/10a的增长率,更是明显高于全国和全球气温的增长率,且极端最高温都出现在20世纪90年代。后10年气温 (1994~2003年) 比前十年 (1983~1993年) 升高0.5 ^oC,径流量增加了26%;不同月份径流增加强度不同,10~2月增加了44%,7~9月增加了27%,3~6月增加了24%。径流对气候变化的响应最灵敏 (一年中有8个月的增加趋势通过了α = 0.05的显著性检验),尤其是秋冬季的径流 (增加趋势超过α = 0.01的显著性检验)。受冰川消融和季风影响,不同时期的径流有不同的影响因素,但存在共性,即气温对径流起着积极主导作用,而降水对径流的影响具有不确定性,即正负双面效应。     

人工鱼礁工程的风险评估

对台风暴潮影响下的嵊泗海域人工鱼礁工程做了风险评估,考虑了台风暴潮中出现的大浪和风暴潮减水对鱼礁联合作用的危害。风险评估分为危险灾害识别、失效概率计算、失效后果评估、风险准则评定和风险管理决策几个主要的步骤。在失效概率的计算中采用基于应用设计点的重点抽样法随机模拟的技术,这一随机模拟技术可以广泛的应用与海洋工程结构的风险评估当中。     

海南新村潟湖潮汐、潮流特征及其对营养盐的影响

基于海南新村潟湖2020年12月水文和水质多要素实测数据,研究了该海域的潮汐、潮流变化特征,并探讨了潮位变化对潟湖营养盐的影响。结果表明,新村潟湖的潮汐为不规则全日潮,潟湖口门处的潮流为往复流,涨潮历时15 h,落潮历时10 h。大、小潮期间3个观测站点溶解性无机氮(DIN)浓度变化范围为0.91~20.87 μmol/L,磷酸盐(PO3-4)浓度变化范围为0.11~5.92 μmol/L,硅酸盐(SiO2-3)浓度变化范围为2.36~134.75 μmol/L。大、小潮期间,潟湖内3个观测站点DIN、PO3-4、SiO2-3浓度随着涨、落潮过程发生变化。潟湖口门处流速对观测站点潮位变化有着重要的影响,潮通量基本决定了潮位的变化。潟湖口门处和渔排密集区域的营养盐浓度与潮位呈现显著的负相关关系,潮流流速对口门处和渔排密集区域的营养盐变化有着重要影响。该研究结果将为新村潟湖的污染治理及生态修复提供科学依据。     

Assessment on variability of extreme climate events for the Upper Thames River basin in Canada

Climate change may affect magnitude and frequency of regional extreme events with possibility of serious impacts on the existing infrastructure systems. This study investigates how the current spatial and temporal variations of extreme events are affected by climate change in the Upper Thames River basin, Ontario, Canada. A weather generator model is implemented to obtain daily time series of three climate variables for two future climate scenarios. The daily time series are disaggregated into hourly to capture characteristics of intense and rapidly changing storms. The maximum annual precipitation events for five short durations, 6‐, 12‐, 24‐, 48‐, and 72‐h durations, at each station are extracted from the generated hourly data. The frequency and seasonality analyses are conducted to investigate the temporal and spatial variability of extreme precipitation events corresponding to each duration. In addition, this study investigates the impacts of increase in temperature using reliability, resilience, and vulnerability. The results indicate that the extreme precipitation events under climate change will occur earlier than in the past. In addition, episodes of extremely high temperature may last longer up to 19·7% than under the no‐change climate scenario. This study points out that the revision of the design storms (e.g. 100‐ or 250‐year return period) is warranted for the west and the south east region of the basin. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulations for multi-object spectrograph planet surveys

Radial velocity surveys for extrasolar planets generally require substantial amounts of large telescope time in order to monitor a sufficient number of stars. Two of the aspects which can limit such surveys are the single-object capabilities of the spectrograph, and an inefficient observing strategy for a given observing window. In addition, the detection rate of extrasolar planets using the radial velocity method has thus far been relatively linear with time. With the development of various multi-object Doppler survey instruments, there is growing potential to dramatically increase the detection rate using the Doppler method. Several of these instruments have already begun usage in large-scale surveys for extrasolar planets, such as Fibre Large Array Multi Element Spectrograph (FLAMES) on the Very Large Telescope (VLT) and Keck Exoplanet Tracker (ET) on the Sloan 2.5-m wide-field telescope.
In order to plan an effective observing strategy for such a program, one must examine the expected results based on a given observing window and target selection. We present simulations of the expected results from a generic multi-object survey based on calculated noise models and sensitivity for the instrument and the known distribution of exoplanetary system parameters. We have developed code for automatically sifting and fitting the planet candidates produced by the survey to allow for fast follow-up observations to be conducted. The techniques presented here may be applied to a wide range of multi-object planet surveys.     

软刚臂单点系泊系统静力特性分析

软刚臂系泊系统是一种利用压载质量为浮式生产储油装置(FPSO)提供回复力的单点系泊方式。为快速准确地评估多铰接组成的软刚臂系统的受力状态,避免应用高复杂度的有限元软件,进而快速完成优化设计等任务,建立一种静力计算方法十分有必要。因此,针对由刚臂(YOKE)、柔性系泊腿和压载舱组成的刚柔多体系统,以分解组合的方式,提出一种二维静力计算方法,用以研究FPSO软刚臂系泊系统的静力特性。该方法主要依靠软刚臂的几何构型,在有限铰接约束下,形成非线性静力平衡方程,建立了压载舱式水上软刚臂单点系泊系统二维静力平衡计算算法。采用OrcaFlex、SESAM等软件开展了理论和数值对比分析,同时与系泊试验结果开展验证分析。对比结果表明,文中所提方法计算精度较高,可为软刚臂单点系泊系统的研究提供可靠支持。     

深海可移动平台的全向推进技术研究

深海可移动平台是青岛海洋地质研究所针对大洋地质调查过程中提出的精准取样、定点投放等新需求, 创新研发的新一代通用型深海地质调查装备。全向推进系统是该平台的核心关键技术之一。笔者从工作实际需求出发, 阐述了深海可移动平台的整体设计思路;通过对平台整体的数学建模与力学分析, 给出了平面全向推进系统的数理模型;根据不同参数与控制变量, 模拟了大洋地质调查过程中全向推进系统的仿真结果。     

黔中乌当盆地阶地沉积特征及其对盆地演化的指示

黔中乌当盆地是贵州省山间盆地的典型代表,四级河流阶地清晰地记录了新构造运动中区域地壳抬升和盆地演化。通过阶地沉积物砾组统计、粒度分析、光释光（OSL）测年,探讨盆地的发育和演化。结果显示,阶地砾石排列指示盆地水系古流向与现代河流基本一致,砾石磨圆度变化大,分选较差,岩性继承了区域地层。砾石组合特征反映了构造抬升期盆地内强烈的冲刷剥蚀。漫滩沉积物粒度表明盆地在稳定阶段河流水动力整体呈增大趋势。T4和T3发育阶段区域以冲刷剥蚀为主并塑造了盆地雏形。T2阶地沉积特征及测年结果（177.4 ka~87.6 ka）表明中更新世末期持续数万年的沉积夷平作用使盆地基本成型。T1阶地形成时代约25ka,指示了黔中地区最近一次构造抬升和盆地的最终定型。     

西南地区近21年来NDVI变化特征分析

利用美国国家航天航空局（NASA）归一化植被指数（GIMMS NDVI）资料,初步分析了近21年（1982~2002）来西南地区植被变化特征。结果发现：21年来西南地区植被覆盖状况较好,总体呈增加趋势,同时也存在较明显的季节和区域差异：春季西南大部分地区植被呈较明显的增加趋势。夏季全区NDVI以显著的减小趋势为主,尤以90年代中期以后更为明显。秋季NDVI与夏季类似同样表现为减少趋势,并且范围有所增加。冬季ND-VI以增加为主,存在明显的东西反向特征,东部以减少为主,西部则以增加为主。