Development of FLEMOcs – a new model for the estimation of flood losses in the commercial sector

Abstract

The estimation of flood damage is an important component for risk-oriented flood design, risk mapping, financial appraisals and comparative risk analyses. However, research on flood-loss modelling, especially in the commercial sector, has not gained much attention so far. Therefore, extensive data about flood losses were collected for affected companies via telephone surveys after the floods of 2002, 2005 and 2006 in Germany. Potential loss determining factors were analysed. The new Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the commercial sector (FLEMOcs) was developed on the basis of 642 loss cases. Losses are estimated depending on water depth, sector and company size as well as precaution and contamination. The model can be applied to the micro-scale, i.e. to single production sites as well as to the meso-scale, i.e. land-use units, thus enabling its countrywide application.

Citation Kreibich, H., Seifert, I., Merz, B. & Thieken, A. H. (2010) Development of FLEMOcs – a new model for the estimation of flood losses in the commercial sector. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1302–1314.     

A Least-squares Window Curves Method for Interpretation of Magnetic Anomalies Caused by Dipping Dikes

We have developed a least-squares method to determine simultaneously the depth and the width of a buried thick dipping dike from residualized magnetic data using filters of successive window lengths. The method involves using a relationship between the depth and the half-width of the source and a combination of windowed observations. The relationship represents a family of curves (window curves). For a fixed window length, the depth is determined for each half-width value by solving one nonlinear equation of the form f (z) = 0 using the least-squares method. The computed depths are plotted against the width values representing a continuous curve. The solution for the depth and the width of the buried dike is read at the common intersection of the window curves. The method involves using a dike model convolved with the same moving average filter as applied to the observed data. As a result, this method can be applied to residuals as well as to measured magnetic data. Procedures are also formulated to estimate the amplitude coefficient and the index parameter. The method is applied to theoretical data with and without random errors. The validity of the method is tested on airborne magnetic data from Canada and on a vertical component magnetic anomaly from Turkey. In all cases examined, the model parameters obtained are in good agreement with the actual ones and with those given in the published literature.     

利用夜间灯光数据的城市群格局变化分析

针对传统的统计数据具有行政单元统计约束的缺点、DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据存在分辨率低、像元辐射值饱和的问题,该文使用NPP/VIIRS夜间灯光数据、城区边界、列车时刻表、百度地图API等数据,通过空间统计、标准差椭圆、位序-规模分布、空间联系测度研究中国九大城市群2012与2017年的空间格局变化。结果表明:长三角、珠三角、京津冀城市群的灯光总量和平均灯光均位于前列;长三角、珠三角、成渝、哈长、关中平原城市群灯光变分散,京津冀、长江中游、中原、北部湾城市群灯光变集中,成渝城市群夜间灯光重心移动最大,向重庆方向移动;长江中游城市群接近捷夫分布,中原城市群为序列分布,其他城市群为首位分布;长三角、珠三角、京津冀城市群的总体联系强度最高,各城市群边缘中小城市与核心城市空间联系较弱。     

The importance of atmospheric input of terrestrial organic material to deep sea sediments

The concentrations of lipids were determined in atmospheric particle, gas and rain samples collected from the tropical North Pacific to assess lipid sources, transport mechanisms and fluxes to the ocean surface. Four lipid compound classes (aliphatic hydrocarbons, fatty alcohols, fatty acid esters, and salts) all unequivocally show a terrestrial vascular plant source. These aerosol lipids originate from wind erosion of Asian and American soils and direct emission from vegetation. The major fluxes result from rain rather than dry deposition. These fluxes are large enough to have a major potential impact on the inventory of terrestrially derived lipid material found in deep-sea sediments. This has been showm for n-alkanes, fatty alcohols, fatty acids, total lipids and for organic carbon. By comparing atmospheric and sediment trap fluxes with sediment accumulation rates, it is suggested that some biogenic terrestrial material is more protected from degradation than marine-derived material.     

常量金标准物质定值中离群值的统计识别

离群值的剔除常用数理统计的方法,如格拉布斯检验法和迪克逊检验法等,但是这些统计方法用于常量金标准物质分析结果的统计检验,都存在着对离群值剔除明显不够的问题.本文建立了以常量金重复分析相对偏差允许限为依据的离群值统计识别方法,包括统计计算待定值样品中金的算术平均值x和相对偏差允许限YG,确定合格的测定结果的数据区间,从而识别出离群值并予以剔除;一次剔除后,按照新的统计量确定下一轮的离群值剔除范围,直到无离群值后,给出金的平均值及其波动范围.以15个人工组合的常量金标准物质为例,模拟金标准物质定值分析,以密码形式分派给不同单位和分析者,共收集10套独立分析结果,采用本法剔除离群值后,所得金算术平均值与金标准参考值更加接近,其相对偏差的质量分数为0.35,达到优秀;而格拉布斯法(或迪克逊法)和中位值法的质量分数分别为0.42和0.40,只能达到良好.应用本文建立的离群值统计识别方法,质量分数等级有了明显提高,增强了数据统计分析的有效性.     

我国农村饮水安全问题探讨与对策

根据《我国饮水安全与北方缺水地区农业水资源高效利用战略研究》及《全国农村饮水安全现状调查评估》中的调查资料,统计分析了我国农村饮水不安全人口总体分布特征及 不同类型的空间分布特点。按照中部、东部和西部划分,饮水不安全人口在数量上中部多东部少,中部为1.4 亿人,东部为0.7 亿人;在饮水不安全人口占农村总人口比例上,西部多东部少,西部为40%,东部为27%。饮用高氟、苦咸水、污染地表水、污染地下水以及水量缺乏等不同类型的饮水不安全人口分布特点各不相同,高氟水主要在华北地区,在天津饮用高 氟水人口占不安全人口的70%;饮用污染地表水主要分布在淮河以南、青海西藏以东大部分区域。进一步分析讨论了不同饮水安全问题(高氟、高砷、污染水、水量缺乏等) 的成因及影响农村饮水安全的主要因素,最后提出严格防治点源污染、面源污染,加强水源地保护,加 强雨水集蓄利用以及制定应急机制和预案等一系列解决农村饮水安全问题、保障饮水安全的 对策和措施。     

Bed material texture in low order streams on the Queen Charlotte Islands,British Columbia

Low order channels comprise a large proportion of the links of every drainage basin, and are often at the centre of land management concerns. They exhibit hydrological and geomorphological characteristics atypical of higher order links. This paper examines the nature and causes of variations in the bed material texture of two streams on the Queen Charlotte Islands, British Columbia. The extant, functional exponential model is found to be inadequate for explaining observed changes in grain size parameters with distance downstream. Recurrent disruption of sediment transport by large organic debris jams, and the sporadic contamination of the fluvial sediment population by colluvial inputs, preclude the development of longitudinal structure. Rather, grain size varies erratically over short distances. A stochastic model best describes the observed variations, and should be adopted as an alternative to the exponential model in low order links. Characteristic variances are controlled by the degree of hillslope-channel coupling, and the extent and characteristics of non-alluvial storage mechanisms.     

Simulation of geomembrane response to settlement in landfills by using the material point method

Because of the multiple layers of dissimilar materials and large deformations involved in the subsidence of a landfill system, large-scale computer simulation of the geomechanical response to subsidence with the use of conventional numerical methods are problematic. The Material Point (MPM), which was recently developed for dynamic problems such as penetration and perforation, is a newly emerging numerical method. The MPM is modified in this paper to simulate the geomechanical response of a landfill cover system that includes a geomembrane under quasi-static loading conditions. Sample problems, for which an analytical solution is available with certain assumptions, are considered to demonstrate the proposed solution procedure. Future work is discussed based on current research results. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

露天转井工采场及其覆岩采动响应特征研究

以云南磷化集团有限公司晋宁磷矿为依托背景,借助数字照相量测技术,通过相似材料模拟试验,对20与50两种矿体倾角赋存下,露转井工后,井下采场及其上覆岩层的位移与应力响应特征及动态演化过程进行了系统研究。结果表明：（1）地下采场围岩及覆岩的变形演化过程可划分为局部小范围微动、线性持续增大以及整体非线性剧烈垮塌3个阶段;（2）矿体倾角由20增至50后,边坡与地下采场围岩及覆岩的变形整体趋缓,采动影响范围小幅度缩减,沉降曲线则由非对称槽型变为碗型;（3）采场矿柱回收过程中,地下采场围岩及覆岩发生突发性失稳,呈现出明显的多米诺骨牌效应。相关研究结论可为矿山露天转地下开采后地压管理与边坡维护提供一定的理论参考。