对21世纪发展中国人类起源研究的若干建议

本文简述170余年来关于人类起源研究的重大发现，我国的重要贡献和潜力，在此基础上对我国未来的工作提出原则性的建议；发现更多人类和有关的化石以及旧石器，并对之进行深入的研究；构建可信度更高、涵盖面更广的古人类年龄框架；研究古人类与环境的关系；录求古人类学与分子人类学在人类起源研究上的协调。     

二十一世纪的矿物学

根据20世纪矿物学已取得的主要成果和已经意识到尚未解决的问题，预测21世纪矿物学基础理论研究将在分子轨道理论和分子模拟、三维矿物物质、矿物表面和界面等方面取得突破性进展。这些研究将借助更为快速、准确、精细的测试手段和仪器。应用于地球科学领域，21世纪矿物学将对诸如造山带（高压变质、蛇绿岩等）；深部地质（组成、物理性质）；古生物和现代生物，特别是微生物在地质过程中的作用；全球变化（风化、沉积、纪年）等方面的研究作出特殊贡献。同时21世纪矿物学在矿物材料研究方面将为人类的生活带来广泛、深刻的变化。     

20世纪云南地区Ms≥5.0级地震活动的基本特征

在对云南地区地震目录完整性和均匀性分析的基础上，系统总结和分析了20世纪云南地区Ms≥5．0级地震活动时、空、强分布的基本特征。有以下主要认识：（1）6．7级以上大震存在十年尺度的活跃－平静交替活动过程；（2）50年左右的大震复发周期；（3）5级以上地震活动的时、空分布具有很大的随机性，5－6级地震活动不存在活跃期和平静期之分；Ms≥5．0级地震有约2．6次／年的期望年发生率，每年发生0．8－4．5次Ms≥5．0级地震的自然概率是68．3％；（4）6级以上地震具有空间丛集特征，云南全区80％的6级以上地震只分布在全区20％左右的面积上；（5）以金沙江－红河断裂带为界，6．7级以上大震成组地在滇西和滇东交替活动；（6）5级以上地震活动的b值为0．69。     

Residential differentiation in nineteenth‐century Fremantle: the antipodean case

The study of residential differentiation in nineteenth‐century cities has generally been pursued without reference to Australian examples due to a lack of suitable data sources and a tendency to assume ‘New World’ models for the antipodean case. This study of late nineteenth‐century Fremantle, Western Australia, utilises data drawn from contemporary municipal ratebooks in a comprehensive analysis of residential space at the micro‐scale of individual lots. Conducted at three time intervals during a period of in‐migration and urban transformation, the analysis reveals the distinctiveness of one Australian urban experience during an era of ‘compressed development’. Residential differentiation is shown to exist both between and within occupational status groups, reflecting subtle differences in tenancy status, dwelling type and lot densities. With population increase and the onset of industrialisation, many of these differentials can be seen to disappear, particularly between middling status groups. Drawing upon additional evidence from other researchers, it is possible to construct a schematic model of antipodean urban development to represent more precisely the period in Australian cities prior to large‐scale suburbanisation.     

Potential forest fire danger over Northern Eurasia: Changes during the 20th century

Significant climatic changes over Northern Eurasia during the 20th century have been reflected in numerous variables of economic, social, and ecological interest, including the natural frequency of forest fires. For the former USSR, we are now using the Global Daily Climatology Network and a new Global Synoptic Data Network archive, GSDN, created jointly by U.S. National Climatic Data Center and Russian Research Institute for Hydrometeorological Information. Data from these archives (approximately 1500 of them having sufficiently long meteorological time series suitable for participation in our analyses) are employed to estimate systematic changes in indices used in the United States and Russia to assess potential forest fire danger. We use four indices: (1) Keetch–Byram Drought Index, (KBDI; this index was developed and widely used in the United States); (2) Nesterov, (3) Modified Nesterov, and (4) Zhdanko Indices (these indices were developed and widely used in Russia). Analyses show that after calibration, time series of the days with increased potential forest fire danger constructed using each of these three indices (a) are well correlated and (b) deliver similar conclusions about systematic changes in the weather conditions conducive to forest fires. Specifically, over the Eastern half of Northern Eurasia (Siberia and the Russian Far East) statistically significant increases in indices that characterize the weather conditions conducive to forest fires were found. These areas coincide with the areas of most significant warming during the past several decades south of the Arctic Circle. West of the Ural Mountains, the same indices show a steady decrease in the frequency of “dry weather summer days” during the past 60 yr. This study is corroborated with available statistics of forest fires and with observed changes in drought statistics in agricultural regions of Northern Eurasia.     

18世纪南京、苏州和杭州年、季降水量序列的复原研究

利用清代宫廷档案“晴雨录”南京、苏州和杭州的逐日天气记录,复原了18世纪三地的年、季和月降水量序列;论述了将“晴雨录”的逐日降水时数和降水类型的记载转换成7级降水日数和逐步回归推算月降水量的方法及其科学依据;给出长江下游地区18世纪典型多雨、少雨年份的降水量值。18世纪南京等三地的年、季、月降水量序列的复原,对了解在寒冷小冰期中相对温暖时段我国主要农业区长江三角洲地区的降水特征有重要意义。     

渤南低凸起中段古近系沙一二段源汇体系研究及勘探意义

源汇耦合控砂原理在渤海油田储层预测中取得了良好应用效果,使得渤海古近系储层预测的成功率由原来的40%提高到了80%。在对渤南低凸起中段沙一、二段储层研究中,以源汇耦合控砂原理为指导,利用渤南低凸起及围区的钻测井、地震资料,识别物源区的母岩类型,刻画物源区范围,分析供源能力,研究沉积物搬运过程中的沟谷、坡折带类型及分布特征。将沉积体系形成的关键要素相结合,构建物源-沟谷-沉积体系的耦合关系,分析渤南低凸起中北段BZ22/23构造区沙一、二段沉积体系展布特征,预测该区沙一、二段优质储层的分布,为BZ22/23构造区沙一、二段油气勘探提供有力支持。     

Sedimentary records of reduction in resting egg production of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Daphnia galeata</Emphasis> in Lake Biwa during the 20th century: a possible effect of winter warming

To clarify long-term variations in the resting egg production of Daphnia galeata in Lake Biwa during the 20th century, we examined an abundance of plankton remains and ephippia in a 26-cm sediment core with a time resolution of approximately 2–6 years. Historical changes shown by these plankton remains indicated that the Daphnia population has not produced resting eggs since the 1980s, but it has remained the most abundant zooplankton species in the lake. Plankton monitoring data collected from 1966 to 2000 revealed that the overwintering individuals (January–March) of D. galeata plankters showed a significant increasing trend in recent years, such increase being negatively correlated with ephippial abundance in the sediment samples. Further analyses showed that the dominant phytoplankton in winter has changed from large inedible diatoms to edible flagellated algae, probably due to changes in vertical mixing regimes resulting from winter warming. These changes that occurred in the last several decades suggest that global warming has improved winter food conditions and thus enabled the Daphnia plankton to maintain its population without producing resting eggs in Lake Biwa.     

地学哲学:世纪之交的回眸与展望

本文立足于世纪之交的时间平台,对以往地学哲学研究中的主要问题,如关于地学哲学的性质、对象和内容,地学哲学在我国发展的重要里程碑－找矿哲学等作了总结性的回顾;对在２１世纪地学哲学的发展将面对的挑战和机遇,作了前瞻性的展望。使我们的地学哲学研究以新世纪的开端为新起点,步入更加自觉、更为理性的新阶段。     

19世纪中叶北京高分辨率沙尘天气记录：《翁心存日记》初步研究*

《翁心存日记》是迄今为止发现的记录天气现象最为详细的历史天气日记,保留了难得的19世纪中叶北京的沙尘天气记录。归纳了对历史文献记录中的沙尘天气进行分类的方法,通过《翁心存日记》,重建了19世纪中叶北京沙尘天气情况。分析发现当时北京年平均沙尘日多达31.36天,高于近60年来北京沙尘天气的平均水平。而19世纪中叶的北京沙尘天气中扬沙、浮尘和沙尘暴天气的构成和现代基本相似,年内分布特征也较相似。但19世纪中叶夏季沙尘比例较现代明显偏多46％,而冬季沙尘比例仅为现代比例的75％,这说明古今间沙尘天气的季节分布可能存在较大差异。另外,19世纪的沙尘天气同样存在明显的年际变化,且本地降水是影响年际变化的因素之一。