地震电离层异常电场模拟及初步研究

强地震会造成电离层电场发生异常变化.基于大气层-电离层电动力学理论对地震电离层异常电场开展数值模拟和研究,将理论推导出来的电离层异常电场方程扩展到球面坐标系中,并且考虑到电离层层电导率的各向异性,建立新的地震电离层异常电场模式.引进一个电离层层电导率经验公式(Nopper and Carovillano,1979),对中低纬度地震电离层异常电场特性进行数值模拟.模拟结果表明:附加电流引起电离层异常电场范围远大于自身在地表上的分布.且发生在低纬地区的异常电场主要成分是纬向电场,在东西两侧显偶极子分布.在额外电流分布相同的情况下,夜晚生成的异常电场更显著,存在昼夜差异.     

基于BP神经网络的北京夏季日最大电力负荷预测方法

利用2006~2017年北京夏季（6~8月）逐日最大电力负荷和同期气象资料,分析最大电力负荷与各种气象因子的相关性,基于BP（Back Propagation）神经网络算法,建立了两种夏季日最大电力负荷预测模型并对比。结果表明:北京夏季周末基础负荷远小于工作日,剔除时应加以区分;气象因子对气象负荷的影响具有累积效应,累积2 d时两者的相关性最强;结合实际,根据自变量的不同分别建立了两种日最大电力负荷预测模型;经实际预测检验,两种预测模型均取得了较好的预测效果,能够满足电力部门的实际需求,其中自变量中加入前一日气象负荷的模型效果更优。     

A ＂Dressed＂ Ensemble Kalman Filter Using the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model in the Pacific

The computational cost required by the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is much larger than that of some simpler assimilation schemes, such as Optimal Interpolation (OI) or three-dimension variational assimilation (3DVAR). Ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI), a crudely simplified implementation of EnKF, is sometimes used as a substitute in some oceanic applications and requires much less computational time than EnKF. In this paper, to compromise between computational cost and dynamic covariance, we use the idea of ``dressing' a small size dynamical ensemble with a larger number of static ensembles in order to form an approximate dynamic covariance. The term ``dressing' means that a dynamical ensemble seed from model runs is perturbed by adding the anomalies of some static ensembles. This dressing EnKF (DrEnKF for short) scheme is tested in assimilation of real altimetry data in the Pacific using the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) over a four-year period. Ten dynamical ensemble seeds are each dressed by 10 static ensemble members selected from a 100-member static ensemble. Results are compared to two EnKF assimilation runs that use 10 and 100 dynamical ensemble members. Both temperature and salinity fields from the DrEnKF and the EnKF are compared to observations from Argo floats and an OI SST dataset. The results show that the DrEnKF and the 100-member EnKF yield similar root mean square errors (RMSE) at every model level. Error covariance matrices from the DrEnKF and the 100-member EnKF are also compared and show good agreement.     

分形闪电通道模型的建立及其电磁辐射特征

基于高速摄像系统获取的自然闪电通道形状,利用分形方法构建了分形闪电通道模型,分析计算了闪电通道的弯曲对地面附近不同方位、不同距离处回击电磁场的影响。结果表明,在100m到10km的近距离范围,不同方位的回击垂直电场峰值之比为0．8～2．3;而当距离增加时,这种差别逐渐消失。但无论距离远近,地面水平磁场随方位角都存在较明显的差异,不同方位的回击磁场峰值差异达到2～4倍。与假定通道笔直的回击模型相比,分形闪电通道模型能很好地再现回击过程电磁辐射的高频分量和次峰等细微现象。     

Forecasting Quasi-stationary Front Rainstorm in Southeast China Using Synthetically Multilevel Analog Forecast Technology

The authors use numerical model integral products in a third level forecast of synthetically multi-level analog forecast technology.This is one of the strongest points of this study,which also includes the re-ducing mean vacant-forecast rate method,which pos-sesses many advantages with regard to filtering the analog term.Moreover,the similitude degree between samples is assessed using a combination of meteorological elements,which works better than that described using a single element in earlier analog forecast studies.Based on these techniques,the authors apply the model output,air sounding,surface observation and weather map data from 1990 to 2002 to perform an analog experiment of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.The most important re-sults are as follows:(1) The forecast successful index is 0.36,and was improved after the forecast model was re-vised.(2) The forecast precise rate (0.59) and the lost-forecast rate (0.33) are also better than those of other methods.(3) Based on the model output data,the syn-thetically multilevel analog forecast technology can pro-duce more accurate forecasts of a quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(4) Optimal analog elements reveal that trig-gering mechanisms are located in the lower troposphere while upper level systems are more important in main-taining the phase of the rainstorm.These variables should be first taken into account in operational forecasts of the quasi-stationary front rainstorm.(5) In addition,experi-ments reveal that the position of the key zone is mainly decided by the position of the system causing the heavy rainfall.     

Enhanced alignment of plate ice crystals in a non-uniform electric field

An atmospheric electric field exerts a torque on both column and plate ice crystals. Columns tend to align along the direction of the field. One diameter of plate crystals also aligns parallel to a field, while a non-uniform diverging field leads to further orientation and proscribes a secondary orientation along the direction of least divergence. A laboratory investigation treats the electrical orientation of thin plate ice crystals in a non-uniform field as a two-step process. In the model, the average field provides the primary torque and aligns one diameter of the plate crystal while simultaneously a spatially varying component of the field aligns the perpendicular diameter. The first element of the process, the primary torque, has been investigated previously. The complete reorientation, caused by a secondary torque, is investigated herein. Experimentally a stronger field with sufficient non-uniformity is required to demonstrate the secondary torque. The realignment caused by this torque depends also on the strength of the aerodynamic torques on the falling ice crystals. Experiments in a laboratory cold chamber with small thin plate crystals in an electric field provided by a charged rod demonstrate crystal reorientation by changing the reflections of a beam of white light. A model incorporating electrical torques is applied to the laboratory observation and used to investigate the possibility of the effects occurring in the atmosphere. Fields near lightning strokes, which are strong but of short duration, may reorient small crystals. Larger crystal aggregates like planar snowflakes are governed by the same electrical torques. It is suggested that the secondary torque realignment might be observable for aggregates large enough to be detected by radar in cases pertaining to weaker but longer duration fields associated with cloud electrification. A simplification of the model is used to investigate electrically caused crystal motion and linear aggregation, with applications to the atmosphere and to lightning initiation.     

数值预报同化系统中观测资料误差分析

在观测资料同化系统中,观测误差均方差与背景场误差均方差共同决定着观测信息与背景场信息的相对重要性以及这些信息在空间及不同变量间的扩展方式,故在资料同化系统中起到决定性作用.因此,观测误差均方差的合理估计是非常重要的.采用贝塞尔函数拟合方法,从探空观测资料与背景场的偏差(IV)协方差中分离出探空资料的观测误差均方差与模式的背景场误差均方差;再从其他观测资料偏差协方差中扣除背景场误差均方差来估计其它观测误差均方差.观测误差均方差分析使用2006年8月1-31日观测资料,国家气象中心T213L31全球中期分析预报系统的6小时预报作为背景场.结果显示估计的观测误差均方差是比较合理的.     

基于人工源的甚低频电磁波空间传播特征统计分析

利用2005年1月至2010年11月DEMETER卫星记录的NWC发射站的VLF电场功率谱数据,采用指数拟合的方法,分析了VLF电磁波在卫星高度激发的电场空间分布和衰减特征.研究结果表明:(1)VLF电场在发射站上空及其磁共轭区有着很强的对应关系,存在南、北2个强电场中心涡;(2)相对于发射站的位置,VLF电场中心点具有经度和纬度偏移,日侧地磁经度偏移均值大于夜侧,而地磁纬度偏移均值则小于夜侧;(3)日侧VLF电场强度呈现出周期性的年变化;(4)在VLF电场中心10°范围内,电场强度随距离快速衰减,衰减常数b在长达6年的时间内保持稳定.在以上研究结果基础上初步构建的卫星高度人工源电磁波空间分布特征,将为研究地表-电离层电磁波传播机理提供基础技术支撑.     

地下水位中潮汐与气压效应分析

从井水位中潮汐与气压效应的原理分析入手,着重解决输入量间的多重共线性问题。采用偏最小二乘法回归模型对水位数据中的潮汐与气压效应进行计算发现,该方法得到的潮汐与气压响应系数可正确反映潮汐引力与气压波动的物理过程;潮汐系数、气压系数、气压作用的滞后与延时常数等与含水层参数（储水率、孔隙度、渗透率、体积模量等）以及井孔区域的地壳应力应变状态密切相关。通过川03井连续60 d井水位（步长为9 d）的计算,可从响应系数里识别明显的地震同震响应、震后调整过程和清晰的地震前兆异常。