灾害天气对日照市电力事故的影响研究

利用雷雨、大风等灾害天气资料和电力事故历史数据资料,分析了电力事故发生的时空分布特征及其与雷雨、大风、日平均气温等天气要素之间的关系。进而利用事件概率回归（regression estimation of event probability,REEP）和Logistic回归分析方法,得到了日照市电力事故发生概率与雷雨、大风和日平均气温之间关系的预警模型。研究结果表明：1）雷雨、大风是造成日照市电力事故的重要气象因素。2）雷雨、大风和高温等灾害天气对电力事故的发生虽都有促成作用,但影响能力存在较大差距。3）两种回归分析模型对因子和变量之间关系均有较好的拟合效果,相较而言,REEP模型更为直观,Logistic回归分析方法更为客观,适用性更强。4）回归分析结果建立在客观资料基础上,回归模型具有准确性、实用性,可为电力事故预警发布系统提供理论和技术支持。     

计算最优化离散波数的优化算法

在阐述用最优化方法计算离散波数的基础上,对波数初值的给定及偏导数矩阵的计算方法作了进一步的改进,使其在数学推理上更加严密;在计算量和计算精度方面也有了很大的改善,并简化了程序设计。通过试算发现,反付氏变换的均方误差随波数个数的变化规律,即在变化曲线上存在转折点,在转折点之后误差趋于平稳变化。选取转折点处的波数个数作为反付氏变换的波数个数,这样在正演、反演过程中,既保证了计算精度,又节约了计算时间。     

Economic-Geological Estimation of Gold and Ore Deposits Using Information-Analytical System for the Selection of Analogues

The computer system is developed for evaluation of gold deposits over the world using data collected by experts in the field of gold deposit geology. With the system in use, gold object of interest can be described on the basis of selected groups of tags. The similarity of the considered object to an object from the database is estimated by designed algorithms on the basis of available information characterizing the considered object. These algorithms allow to apply mathematical methods for analysis of the problem what improves quality and reliability of the results. By the method of analogue determination, user can always evaluate unknown properties of the considered object, as for example, ore formation type, economic geological estimate of the deposit on the basis of known properties of the determined analogue.The software equipped by an intuitive graphical interface is developed with use of GIS technologies and modern methods of object-oriented programming.     

大型风浪水槽风速分布的测量和分析

对风浪水槽风速分布精确测量，较详细地获得了该水槽风速分布的基本特征和边界对风场的影响情况。明确了水槽边壁和有限的空间限制是影响模拟实验的重要因素。这项工作对于合理选择实验区段，估计实验误差等有重要意义。     

基于多元线性回归函数的波浪荷载实验研究

在实际工程实验与研究中，根据最小二乘法估计理论，进行多元线性回归分析是一种常见的数据处理方法。大直径圆柱壳结构是近年来在港口海洋工程中出现的一种新型结构。在大直径圆柱壳结构波浪力实验的基础上，引入多元线性回归函数对作用在大直径圆柱壳结构上的波浪力及其弯矩的计算进行了分析，并尝试给出作用在该结构上的波浪荷载公式。     

Diagnoses of vertical transport in a three-dimensional finite element model of the tidal circulation around an island

A three-dimensional finite element model is used to investigate the formation of shallow-water eddies in the wake of Rattray Island (Great Barrier Reef, Australia). Field measurements and visual observations show that stable eddies develop in the lee of the island at rising and falling tides. The water turbidity downstream of the island suggests the existence of strong upwelling that would be responsible for carrying bed sediments up to the sea surface. We first propose to look at the upwelling velocity and then use the theory of the age to diagnose vertical transport. The water age is defined as the time elapsed since particles of water left the sea bottom, where the age is prescribed to be zero. Two versions of this diagnosis are considered. Although the model predicts upwelling within the eddies, it is not sufficiently intense to account for vertical transport throughout the water column during the life span of the eddies. As mesh resolution increases, this upwelling does not intensify. However, strong upwelling is then resolved off the island's tips, which is confirmed by the results obtained with the age. This study also shows that the finite element method, together with unstructured meshes, performs well for representing three-dimensional flow past an island.     

Evaluation of the U.S. Navy’s Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS) Using South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) Data

The Navy’s Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS) is an oceanographic tool to create high-resolution temperature and salinity on three-dimensional grids, by assimilating a wide range of ocean observations into a starting field. The MODAS products are used to generate the sound speed for ocean acoustic modeling applications. Hydrographic data acquired from the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) from April through June 1998 are used to verify the MODAS model. MODAS has the capability to provide reasonably good temperature and salinity nowcast fields. The errors have a Gaussian-type distribution with mean temperature nearly zero and mean salinity of −0.2 ppt. The standard deviations of temperature and salinity errors are 0.98°C and 0.22 ppt, respectively. The skill score of the temperature nowcast is positive, except at depth between 1750 and 2250 m. The skill score of the salinity nowcast is less than that of the temperature nowcast, especially at depth between 300 and 400, where the skill score is negative. Thermocline and halocline identified from the MODAS temperature and salinity fields are weaker than those based on SCSMEX data. The maximum discrepancy between the two is in the thermocline and halocline. The thermocline depth estimated from the MODAS temperature field is 10–40 m shallower than that from the SCSMEX data. The vertical temperature gradient across the thermocline computed from the MODAS field is around 0.14°C/m, weaker than that calculated from the SCSMEX data (0.19°–0.27 °C/m). The thermocline thickness computed from the MODAS field has less temporal variation than that calculated from the SCSMEX data (40–100 m). The halocline depth estimated from the MODAS salinity field is always deeper than that from the SCSMEX data. Its thickness computed from the MODAS field varies slowly around 30 m, which is generally thinner than that calculated from the SCSMEX data (28–46 m).     

高相干点地基InSAR的大气延迟纠正

针对目前地基合成孔径雷达干涉测量技术中大气影响造成的相位延迟校正方法存在的校正精度低、方法复杂、技术要求高等不足,提出了一种基于高相干点的地基InSAR大气延迟相位函数模型校正方案。该方案不需多幅SAR影像,不需人工布点,节省了大量人力物力。以高相干点的相干值作为权阵参与计算,该方法可得到更精确的校正结果。运用该方法将地基雷达对山西省吕梁市林家坪工程滑坡获取的数据进行大气延迟改正的实验。结果表明:所提方案不仅处理方法简单,改正效果明显,而且能满足绝大多数类似工程的精度要求,更为经济实用。