华南地区时变重力场建模实验和异常分析

陆面时变重力测量是监测地壳内部密度变化和物质运移的重要手段。为确定华南时变重力观测网络的场源监测能力和重力场变化特征,本文采用球面六面体单元构建重力场模型,开展重力场建模实验,对比不同建模方法与噪声条件下的局部重力场恢复效果,并对2015—2017年来5期实测流动重力观测数据进行计算和分析。结果表明,最小二乘配置方法的建模效果和抗噪声干扰能力较好。华南重力测网在地表等效可观测信号约±30×10^-8 m/s²的条件下,场源空间分辨能力约为55 km;实际重建的2015至2017年重力场累积变化基本趋势较一致,重力负异常在不同时间尺度下表现为持续增强和积累,且在局部出现正负波动的周期性变化。本文研究结果对评价陆地重力数据质量,指导地震重力观测网络系统改造升级,客观地开展重力场变化解释、分析强震孕育和物质变迁等科学问题具有重要的参考价值。     

基于最小二乘和卡尔曼滤波方法进行原子时预报的研究

介绍和分析了最小二乘和卡尔曼滤波方法在时间预报中的应用。通过IGS站提供的钟差数据,分别运用这两种方法对其中六个原子钟进行了时间预报的实验。通过对预报结果进行分析,结论证明为了取得较好的预报效果,不同的预报方法和钟参数的模型对于观测数据的要求有一些差别。从实验数据所成图形来看,当采用一天的观测数据进行模型预报时,最小二乘法的预报精度比卡尔曼滤波法稍高一些。     

Limiting stochastic operations for stationary spatial processes

A natural extrapolation of stochastic operations (continuity and differentiation) already described in time domain (one-dimensional case) is established for spatial processes (two- or three-dimensional case). If stationarity decision is assumed, the continuity and differentiability (in the mean square sense) of a spatial process depends on the continuity and differentiability of the correlation function at the origin. Spatial processes described by stationary random functions are not continuous (in the mean square sense) when the covariance function presents a nugget effect, and they are not differentiable when the same covariance function is described by a spherical or an exponential covariance (models which are often used in geostatistics).     

论静电场与静磁场场方程的微分形式

本文从库仑定律和比沙定律出发,直接用del算符对场量进行运算得出场方程的微分形式,以此表示场的基本方程是从实验规律出发对场的本质更为普遍化的概括,并指出在两种不同媒质的交界面处场方程的微分形式不再适用。     

Stratigraphic correlation of subsurface geologic data by computer

Manual, semiautomatic, and fully automatic procedures for correlating subsurface data are reviewed. Special emphasis is placed on the use of electric-log data, including that of the dipmeter log, in this discussion. The Holgate method is described for its use in fine-tuning or refining gross correlations. A procedure for creating a matrix map for empirically establishing correlation between sets of data is described, and idealized models are shown.This paper was presented at the 38th Session of the International Statistical Institute, Washington, D.C., 10–20 August 1971.     

甘肃中川地区雷暴的地闪特征

利用在甘肃中川地区一次雷暴过程的５站电场变化同步观测资料,对１９９６年８月１２日的４次地闪过程分析发现甘肃中川地区负地闪回击所中和的负电荷离地高度为２．７４～５．４１ｋｍ（对应环境温度为－２．０～－１５．０℃）,而正地闪回击所中和的正电荷离地高度低于２．０ｋｍ（对应环境温度为±５．０℃）。正地闪放电过程较负地闪中和的电荷量要大７倍左右。在雷暴初期及活跃期前期,地闪回击发生之前有持续１７０～３００ｍｓ的云内放电过程,它发生在云下部正电荷区和主负电荷区。与雷达回波的对比发现,负地闪发生在雷暴大于２０ｄＢｚ的强回波区或４０ｄＢｚ强回波边缘而正地闪却发生在相对较弱的回波区域。     

正环境电场中闪电先导的始发和传播

为了研究中国内陆高原雷暴正极性闪电放电的特点,中日两国科学家于１９９７年７～８月在甘肃省平凉市联合进行了人工触发闪电野外实验。利用设在离触发点约３．５ｋｍ处的高速数字化摄像系统结合在闪道底部的电流测量记录,对在正环境电场中触发的两次闪电的初始先导的发生和发展特点进行了研究。资料分析表明,这两次触发闪电都是由火箭顶部始发的上行负先导传输入云而形成短暂的连续电流放电过程,整个放电持续时间分别只有１７和２６ｍｓ。先导在垂直方向的传输速度随时间而增加,平均值约为３．５×１０５ｍ／ｓ。正环境电场中的先导在向云底传输过程中可能产生多个分枝,但它们一般只存在几毫秒时间就消亡了,只有少数分枝能够发展入云。主通道的亮度综合反映了各分枝亮度的变化,而它本身又与在闪道底部测量记录到的闪电放电电流变化存在很好的对应关系。     

Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Spatial Covariance Parameters

In this paper, the maximum likelihood method for inferring the parameters of spatial covariances is examined. The advantages of the maximum likelihood estimation are discussed and it is shown that this method, derived assuming a multivariate Gaussian distribution for the data, gives a sound criterion of fitting covariance models irrespective of the multivariate distribution of the data. However, this distribution is impossible to verify in practice when only one realization of the random function is available. Then, the maximum entropy method is the only sound criterion of assigning probabilities in absence of information. Because the multivariate Gaussian distribution has the maximum entropy property for a fixed vector of means and covariance matrix, the multinormal distribution is the most logical choice as a default distribution for the experimental data. Nevertheless, it should be clear that the assumption of a multivariate Gaussian distribution is maintained only for the inference of spatial covariance parameters and not necessarily for other operations such as spatial interpolation, simulation or estimation of spatial distributions. Various results from simulations are presented to support the claim that the simultaneous use of maximum likelihood method and the classical nonparametric method of moments can considerably improve results in the estimation of geostatistical parameters.     

用古里雅冰芯的pH值及电导率探讨该冰川作用区的干湿变化(英)

Soluble salts on the surface ground in Guliya ice cap area change with climatic factors, especially with dry and wet conditions. pH and electric conductivity values of the Guliya ice core depend on soluble salts originated from surrounding arid or semi-arid regions, therefore the dry and wet changes can be approached by them. Results show that the approached dry and wet changes since the little ice age are consistent with that deduced from δ18O and accumulation rate.     

电偶源电场的时间谱转换为频谱的误差探讨

基于层状导电和可极化大地表面,电偶源电场的时间谱在无随机干扰和有随机干扰时,进行频谱转换的计算结果,证明了时—频转换的误差传递问题严重。但是,采用窗口（圆滑）滤波可以有效压制随机干扰,使时—频转换达到必要的计算精度。