NWP在颠簸预报中的应用

颠簸是航空气上重要预告内容之一，历史上由于颠簸引起的飞行事故及征候占有一定的比例，颠簸预报也是气象预报的难点，颠簸对飞行的影响至关重要，轻则引起航行中的飞机摆动偏航，重则造成飞机解体，近年来随着太原机场卫星广播传真数值预报产品的使用，我们也在逐步尝试使用数值产品分析颠簸，使颠簸的预报有了明显提高。     

A response‐based decoupling criterion for multiply‐supported secondary systems

It is often infeasible to carry out coupled analyses of multiply‐supported secondary systems for earthquake excitations. ‘Approximate’ decoupled analyses are then resorted to, unless the response errors due to those are significantly high. This study proposes a decoupling criterion to identify such cases where these errors are likely to be larger than an acceptable level. The proposed criterion is based on the errors in the primary system response due to decoupling and has been obtained by assuming (i) the input excitation to be an ideal white noise process, (ii) cross‐modal correlation to be negligible, and (iii) the combined system to be classically damped. It uses the modal properties of the undamped combined system, and therefore, a perturbation approach has been formulated to determine the combined system properties in case of light to moderately heavy secondary systems. A numerical study has been carried out to illustrate the accuracy achieved with the proposed perturbation formulation. The proposed decoupling criterion has been validated with the help of two example primary‐secondary systems and four example excitation processes. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Study on effects of damping in laminated rubber bearings on seismic responses for a ⅛ scale isolated test structure

The effects of damping in various laminated rubber bearings (LRB) on the seismic response of a ?‐scale isolated test structure are investigated by shaking table tests and seismic response analyses. A series of shaking table tests of the structure were performed for a fixed base design and for a base isolation design. Two different types of LRB were used: natural rubber bearings (NRB) and lead rubber bearings (LLRB). Three different designs for the LLRB were tested; each design had a different diameter of lead plug, and thus, different damping values. Artificial time histories of peak ground acceleration 0.4g were used in both the tests and the analyses. In both shaking table tests and analyses, as expected, the acceleration responses of the seismically isolated test structure were considerably reduced. However, the shear displacement at the isolators was increased. To reduce the shear displacement in the isolators, the diameter of the lead plug in the LLRB had to be enlarged to increase isolator damping by more than 24%. This caused the isolator stiffness to increase, and resulted in amplifying the floor acceleration response spectra of the isolated test structure in the higher frequency ranges with a monotonic reduction of isolator shear displacement. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

EFG法在土体固结中的应用

EFGM作为一种新的数值计算方法，具有只需节点信息而无段单元的特性，故在解固结方程方面有很大的优势。在计算分析中，此法容易构造固结方程的EFGM刚度矩阵和处理不同边界条件。对单面排水等条件的计算结果表明，EFGM在解决固结变形问题上，精度较高，处理边界准确。     

基于ODBC的地震前兆数据批量卸出与转换程序的实现

介绍了CDBC技术、工作流程及数据传递方式；分析了研制数据卸出与转换程序的关键技术及实现方法；描述了程序的组织结构。通过实例说明了该程序在全国前兆台网中心卸载与转换地震前兆数字化的观测数据中的应用。     

Validation through HVSR measurements of a method for the quick detection of site amplification effects from intensity data: an application to a seismic area in Northern Italy

An instrumental validation is attempted of an innovative approach devoted to the quick individuation, from macroseismic data, of site amplification phenomena able to significantly modify seismic hazard levels expected on the basis of average propagation effects only. According to this methodology, two evaluations of hazard are performed at each investigated locality: the former, obtained by epicentral intensity data ‘reduced’ at the site through a probabilistic attenuation function and, the latter, computed by integrating such data with seismic effects actually observed at the site during past earthquakes. The comparison, for each locality, between these two hazard estimates allow to orientate the identification of those sites where local amplifications of earthquake ground motion could be significant. In order to check such methodology, indications obtained in this way from macroseismic data are compared with the estimates of transfer functions performed through the HVSR technique applied to microtremors. Results concerning municipalities located in a seismic area of Northern Italy indicate a good agreement between macroseismic and instrumental estimates.     

Simulation of individual particle movement in a gravel streambed

A two‐dimensional simulation model of travel distances of individual particles in a gravel‐bed river is presented. The model is based on a number of rules, which include particle size, entrainment, trajectory, distance of movement and entrapment. Particle interactions are controlled by resistance fields defined about each obstacle and critical elevation defined in the model. Resistance fields, particle dropping and critical elevation rules control particle interactions. The interaction rules cause the particles to develop pebble clusters, stone cells and transverse structures (transverse ribs). The simulated travel distances of individual particles are consistent with reported field results. Individual particle travel distances were simulated using two different models; one without interactions between the individual particles and the stationary bed and one with interactions. The case without interactions demonstrates the random nature of sediment transport, and narrow ranges of travel distances. Wider ranges of travel distances, similar to those for natural situations, were obtained for the cases with interactions. The more intense the interaction between the mobile stones and the stationary ones, the wider the range of distances of travel for a given particle size. Modelling the mean travel distance yielded a result similar to that published previously, which was based on empirical data. Well developed bed‐surface structures were obtained for relatively poorly sorted sediment with intense interactions between particles. Transverse structures developed when relatively large particles were allowed to move. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

连续小波变换在新疆地震活动周期分析中的应用

利用连续小波变换分析和研究了 1 970年 1月— 2 0 0 1年 1 2月新疆地区 30年来的地震活动情况。结果表明 ,新疆地震活动存在比较稳定的 1 0年左右活动周期 ,并存在 5年和 1 7年左右的不稳定的准活动周期 ,也就是说新疆地区地震活动既存在比较稳定的优势周期 ,也存在一定的时变性。根据 MS≥ 4.7地震时间序列的连续小波变换结果可推测 ,2 0 0 2— 2 0 0 5年新疆地区地震活动相对偏弱 ,中、强地震的发生次数偏少 ,有可能发生 5级或 6级地震 ,而到 2 0 0 6— 2 0 0 7年新疆有可能再次发生 7级左右的大地震。     

A Reconnaissance Method for Delineation of Tracts for Regional-Scale Mineral-Resource Assessment Based on Geologic-Map Data

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is proposing to conduct a global mineral-resource assessment using geologic maps, significant deposits, and exploration history as minimal data requirements. Using a geologic map and locations of significant pluton-related deposits, the pluton-related-deposit tract maps from the USGS national mineral-resource assessment have been reproduced with GIS-based analysis and modeling techniques. Agreement, kappa, and Jaccard's C correlation statistics between the expert USGS and calculated tract maps of 87%, 40%, and 28%, respectively, have been achieved using a combination of weights-of-evidence and weighted logistic regression methods. Between the experts' and calculated maps, the ranking of states measured by total permissive area correlates at 84%. The disagreement between the experts and calculated results can be explained primarily by tracts defined by geophysical evidence not considered in the calculations, generalization of tracts by the experts, differences in map scales, and the experts' inclusion of large tracts that are arguably not permissive. This analysis shows that tracts for regional mineral-resource assessment approximating those delineated by USGS experts can be calculated using weights of evidence and weighted logistic regression, a geologic map, and the location of significant deposits. Weights of evidence and weighted logistic regression applied to a global geologic map could provide quickly a useful reconnaissance definition of tracts for mineral assessment that is tied to the data and is reproducible.     

A study on the early-warning technique concerning debris flow disasters

According to the principle of the eruption of debris flows, the new torrent classification techniques are brought forward. The torrent there can be divided into 4 types such as the debris flow torrent with high destructive strength, the debris flow torrent, high sand-carrying capacity flush flood torrent and common flush flood by the techniques. In this paper, the classification indices system and the quantitative rating methods are presented. Based on torrent classification, debris flow torrent hazard zone mapping techniques by which the debris flow disaster early-warning object can be ascertained accurately are identified. The key techniques of building the debris flow disaster neural network (NN)real time forecasting model are given detailed explanations in this paper, including the determination of neural node at the input layer, the output layer and the implicit layer, the construction of knowledge source and the initial weight value and so on. With this technique, the debris flow disaster real-time forecasting neural network model is built according to the rainfall features of the historical debris flow disasters, which includes multiple rain factors such as rainfall of the disaster day, the rainfall of 15 days before the disaster day, the maximal rate of rainfall in one hour and ten minutes. It can forecast the probability, critical rainfall of eruption of the debris flows, through the real-time rainfall monitoring or weather forecasting. Based on the torrent classification and hazard zone mapping, combined with rainfall monitoring in the rainy season and real-time forecasting models, the debris flow disaster early-warning system is built. In this system, the GIS technique, the advanced international software and hardware are applied, which makes the system′s performance steady with good expansibility. The system is a visual information system that serves management and decision-making, which can facilitate timely inspect of the variation of the torrent type and hazardous zone, the torrent management, the early-warning of disasters and the disaster reduction and prevention.