基于危险度区划的县级区域降雨引发滑坡的风险预警方法——以四川省米易县降雨滑坡为例

降雨滑坡预警在世界上开展广泛,但对小区域的降雨滑坡风险进行预警尚不多见。以通用的风险定义为基础,首先对目标区域——四川省米易县的地质灾害进行调查,以典型滑坡进行反演,获得灾害的本底因素,按贡献率权重叠加法进行危险度分区;通过对承灾体的调查确定承灾对象,并将各承灾对象按密度由行政界限向1km×1km的网格单元转化后叠加形成易损度分区。二者相乘完成风险分区。对研究区域近5年逐日降雨数据与172条地质灾害记录进行分析,按前期日降雨量模型得到降雨阈值,根据滑坡空间概率和降雨引发滑坡的时间概率叠加的结果,得到研究区域的降雨滑坡概率,对照风险分区,完成风险预警。     

Modelling peak accelerations from earthquakes

This paper deals with the prediction of peak horizontal accelerations with emphasis on seismic risk and insurance concerns. Non‐linear mixed effects models are used to analyse well‐known earthquake data and the consequences of mis‐specifying assumptions on the error term are quantified. A robust fit of the usual model, using recently developed robust weighted maximum likelihood estimators, is presented. Outlying data are automatically identified and subsequently investigated. A more appropriate model accounting for the extreme value nature of the responses, is also developed and implemented. The implication on acceleration predictions is demonstrated. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

FARMING THE FOREST EDGE: VULNERABLE PLACES AND PEOPLE AROUND KIBALE NATIONAL PARK,UGANDA

ABSTRACT. Subsistence farmers near Kibale National Park, Uganda, fear and resent many wildlife species. In this article I compare records of crop damage by wildlife and livestock with local complaints about the worst animals and the most vulnerable crops. I discuss the concordance and discrepancies in complaints versus actual damage in light of physical parameters of risk and of social factors that shape perceptions and vulnerabilities. Crop losses were greatest at the edge of the forest, where immigrants are disproportionately represented. State proprietorship of wildlife amplifies local vulnerability and constrains traditional coping strategies, such as hunting.     

阿尔卑斯山区的危险区区划

通过介绍荒溪治理林业工程体系的基本原理,论述了阿尔卑斯山区危险区区划的重要性、产生背景、现状、原理和方法,并对其区划存在的问题和局限性进行了系统分析,以期为我国开展山地自然灾害防治工作提供借鉴资料．     

土壤表面划痕与颗粒碰撞磨蚀实验研究

在沙漠地区,风蚀作用可以导致土壤表面破碎,土壤表面的性质不同,破碎的程度也不尽相同。划痕方法在测量土壤表面的比研磨能量上具有较好的效果,使用通用微型摩擦计(UMT)测量沙土、沙壤土、粉沙壤土、壤土,粉沙粘壤土和粉沙粘土6种不同土壤类型的土壤表面相对磨蚀能量和相对表面硬度,发现土壤表面相对硬度对土壤表面相对磨蚀能量有很大的影响。对沙土,沙壤土、粉沙壤土、壤土、粉沙粘壤土和粉沙粘土6种不同类型的土壤表面进行了颗粒碰撞磨蚀试验,结果表明,土壤表面的碰撞磨蚀速率与碰撞颗粒速度的平方成正比、土壤平均颗粒大小的2.6次方成正比,而与土壤表面相对磨蚀能量的1.5次方成反比,与土壤相对硬度的1.7次方成反比。     

Baseline determination,pollution source and ecological risk of heavy metals in surface sediments of the Amu Darya Basin,Central Asia

Central Asia(CA) is one of the most fragile regions worldwide owing to arid climate and accumulated human activities, and is a global hotspot due to gradually deteriorating ecological environment. The Amu Darya Basin(ADB), as the most economically and demographically important region in CA, is of particular concern. To determine the concentration,source and pollution status of heavy metals(HMs) in surface sediments of the ADB, 154samples were collected and analyzed for metals across the basin. C...     

Placing geographies of public health

Following the move to a 'post–medical' geography, a large amount of research has come to focus on public health issues. This paper explores these current geographies of public health and argues for the development of a more critical perspective. In particular, it draws on commentary that has emerged out of debates that have taken place within a body of literature usually identified as the critical 'new' public health. The paper goes on to argue that such scholarship offers crucial insights for the production of a critical geography of public health.     

城市NOx 人体健康风险评估的GIS 应用研究

城市大气污染是人类目前及未来面临的主要健康威胁之一, 而随着交通的发展NOx 对 人体健康的影响越来越受到重视。基于GIS 技术进行健康风险评估的研究是目前城市环境健康 问题研究的热点。论文采用环境健康风险评估的基本框架( 浓度、暴露、剂量、效应4 个环节) , 应 用GIS 栅格数据模型和域面分析技术构建城市空气质量健康风险空间量化评估模型, 模拟了主 要大气污染物NOx 的剂量—效应函数关系; 并根据污染物的分布进行城市局地尺度NOx 健康风 险评估。     

城市化过程中土地征用风险表征及对策

从土地征用基本概念和基本特征着手，描述了土地征用的主要风险，其表现为土地征用权力滥用、侵害失地农民的权益、诱发集体土地黑市、诱发社会矛盾等方面。分析了产生风险的“公共利益需要”缺乏明确界定、土地征用的补偿标准偏低或滞后、土地征用及相关制度不健全或存在缺陷等主要原因。提出了控制与规避风险的对策与措施：严格限定公益性用地范围，提高征地补偿标准，扩大补偿范围，完善相关制度，严格土地征用程序。     

关于编制地县级土壤比阻图的初步研究：以浙江省金华县为例

提出了编制地县级土壤比阻图的原则、方法以及等级系统等,并以浙江省金华县为例,探讨了该地区土壤比阻分布规律和影响土壤比阻大小的因素及其在农业机械化中的经济意义。