Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.     

Bayesian Spatial Modelling of Gamma Ray Count Data

Gamma ray logging is a method routinely employed by geophysicists and environmental engineers in site geology evaluations. Modelling of gamma ray data from individual boreholes assists in the local identification of major lithological changes; modelling these data from a network of boreholes assists with lithological mapping and spatial stratigraphic correlation. In this paper we employ Bayesian spatial partition models to analyse gamma ray data spatially. In particular, a spatial partition is defined via a Voronoi tessellation and the mean intensity is assumed constant in each cell of the partition. The number of vertices generating the tessellation as well as the locations of vertices are assumed unknown, and uncertainty about these quantities is described via a hierarchical prior distribution. We describe the advantages of the spatial partition modelling approach in the context of smoothing gamma ray count data and describe an implementation that may be extended to the fitting of a more general model than a constant mean within each cell of the partition. As an illustration of the methodology we consider a data set collected from a network of eight boreholes, which is part of a geophysical study to assist in mapping the lithology of a site. Gamma ray logs are linked with geological information from cores and the spatial analysis of log data assists with predicting the lithology at unsampled locations.     

A Review of Studies Dealing with Tree Rings and Rockfall Activity: The Role of Dendrogeomorphology in Natural Hazard Research

Over the last few years, rockfall research has increasingly focused on hazard assessment and risk analysis. Input data on past rockfall activity were gathered from historical archives and lichenometric studies or were obtained through frequency–volume statistics. However, historical records are generally scarce, and lichenometry may only yield data with relatively low resolutions. On forested slopes, in contrast, tree-ring analyses may help, generally providing annual data on past rockfall activity over long periods. It is the purpose of the present literature review to survey the current state of investigations dealing with tree-ring sequences and rockfall activity, with emphasis on the extent to which dendrogeomorphology may contribute to rockfall research. Firstly, a brief introduction describes how dendrogeomorphological methods can contribute to natural hazard research. Secondly, an account is provided of the output of dendrogeomorphological studies investigating frequencies, volumes or spatial distributions of past rockfall activity. The current and potential strengths of dendrogeomorphology are then presented before, finally, the weaknesses of tree rings as natural archives of past rockfall activity are discussed and promising directions for further studies outlined.     

T -distributed Random Fields: A Parametric Model for Heavy-tailedWell-log Data1

Histograms of observations from spatial phenomena are often found to be more heavy-tailed than Gaussian distributions, which makes the Gaussian random field model unsuited. A T-distributed random field model with heavy-tailed marginal probability density functions is defined. The model is a generalization of the familiar Student-T distribution, and it may be given a Bayesian interpretation. The increased variability appears cross-realizations, contrary to in-realizations, since all realizations are Gaussian-like with varying variance between realizations. The T-distributed random field model is analytically tractable and the conditional model is developed, which provides algorithms for conditional simulation and prediction, so-called T-kriging. The model compares favourably with most previously defined random field models. The Gaussian random field model appears as a special, limiting case of the T-distributed random field model. The model is particularly useful whenever multiple, sparsely sampled realizations of the random field are available, and is clearly favourable to the Gaussian model in this case. The properties of the T-distributed random field model is demonstrated on well log observations from the Gullfaks field in the North Sea. The predictions correspond to traditional kriging predictions, while the associated prediction variances are more representative, as they are layer specific and include uncertainty caused by using variance estimates.     

The log-normal distribution for hydraulic conductivity of compacted clays: Two or three parameters?

Risk and uncertainty assessments for waste containment systems employing clay barriers often include spatial variability in the hydraulic conductivity as part of the analysis. The two-parameter log-normal distribution is often used to describe the spatial variability, but for compacted clays the three-parameter form can be more appropriate. A statistical hypothesis test was developed that can be used to determine if the two- or three-parameter form of the log-normal distribution is more appropriate. The test is based on a likelihood ratio, comparing likelihood functions for the two- and three-parameter forms at their maximums. Likelihood functions are used assuming that a data set can be segregated into a set of distinct groups of hydraulic conductivities. A step-by-step calculation procedure is described and the test is applied to data collected from 45 sites.     

KIDS AND SPACE IN THE PUERTO RICAN HIGHLANDS

ABSTRACT. The spatial world of the child comprises two great realms, “in’ and “out,’ more or less corresponding to the great behavioral domains of “got to’ and “doing nothing.’ Within the “got‐to’ domain–and thus “in’–are home, school, and other loci of secure, stable authority. Included in “doing nothing’–and so “out’–are street and yard, field and stream, pool hall and movie theater, the spaces of games, things to do, and really doing nothing. This study looks at the shifting relationships of these realms across the life cycle of kids in the highlands of Puerto Rico in 1969–1970.     

Spatial practices and imaginaries: Experiences of colonial officers and development professionals

This paper explores the spatiality of colonial and postcolonial power and discourse as produced, performed and imagined by former British colonial service officers and contemporary UK international development professionals. It focuses on two key aspects of spatial practices. The first addresses the spaces inhabited by these colonial officers and development professionals overseas and how their locatedness, embedded or enclavic, shapes relationships to others. The second explores this distinctive social and spatial distancing through their relationship to, and imagined geographies of, home and away and how these are embodied in their institutional and cultural capital. The paper examines the regularities and consistencies that stand out from numerous individual practices through which both former colonial officers and development professionals negotiate the situations in which they live and work. It also specifies how authoritative management, privilege and distance informs their spatial practices despite changing global contexts and a more diverse composition of those who articulate contemporary relationships between 'first' and 'third' worlds. Finally, the paper suggests that the cultures which travelled over colonial space through being performed by colonial officers have been reworked throughout the postcolonial period, belying epochal historical periodizations that conjure up a clear disjuncture between colonial and development eras.     

基于Intergraph GIS的基础空间数据库一体化建设研究

阐述了基于Intergraph GIS的城市基础空间数据的结构和建库的内容,提出了一体化的建库、质量控制、空间数据动态更新以及基于版本信息的历史数据存储与恢复的方法,介绍了一体化建库实例。     

基于GIS的供电台区经营综合评价

探讨了运用GIS技术对供电台区经营综合评价的实现方法,选取了业务属性和空间属性两个方面评价因子,介绍了从系统软硬件、评价实现过程及显示结果等方面评价过程的具体技术实现。     

基于虚拟SAN的网格GIS数据存储技术研究

针对空间数据存储的特点，结合网格和虚拟SAN技术的优势，提出了基于虚拟SAN的网格GIS数据存储解决方案．旨在解决网格GIS环境下的数据存储问题。