土地利用转型的生态系统服务价值效应分析——以湖南省为例

以1995年、2000年、2005年和2010年四期Landsat TM影像解译数据和社会经济数据为基础,借助ArcGIS分析手段,探讨了期间湖南省的土地利用转型情况.借鉴全球生态系统服务价值的最新研究成果,结合中国实际情况对生态系统服务价值系数进行了修订,进而对湖南省土地利用转型导致的生态系统服务价值变化进行了测度和分析.结果表明:1995-2010年,湖南省土地利用发生明显变化,主要表现为城乡建设用地增加及耕地和草地面积的减少;1995-2000年,湖南省生态系统服务价值略有提升,由8807.8亿元变为8829.5亿元,增加0.25％.但自2000年以后,生态系统服务价值持续下降,由2000年的8829.5亿元降至2010年的8770.9亿元,下降0.66％.最后,提出保障湖南省生态系统服务功能的土地利用优化配置建议.     

动态冠层模型ICM的改进及其对中高纬地区植被季节和年际变化的模拟试验

植被动态冠层模型Interactive Canopy Model(ICM)考虑了生态系统中较完整的碳氮循环过程,能够较为客观真实地描述较短时间尺度上植被的动态变化特征.本文在ICM原有碳氮分配方案基础上,考虑了植物花、果实等新生组织对碳氮分配的影响,假设新生组织碳库是花期以后植物的主要碳汇之一,并利用物候模型Fore-...     

咸海流域水资源利用的区域合作问题分析

咸海的主要水源为阿姆河和锡尔河,自20世纪60年代以来由于人口的增加和农业政策导致的灌溉面积的迅速扩大,河流径流被大量引入且消耗于农业灌溉,使得入湖地表径流大幅度减少。原本是地球上的第四大湖泊的咸海,目前面积已缩小到只有原来的十分之一,并分离形成三个主要的残留湖,湖泊及湖滨的生态环境极度恶化。同时,巨大的干涸裸露湖床已成为盐尘和有毒物的发源地,严重威胁周边地区的人类健康。中亚五国自独立后于1992年签订了《中亚五国水协定》,旨在通过协定和后续协议加强区域合作扭转咸海流域严重的水危机与生态危机。但事与愿违,危机事态未得到抑制且有扩大趋势。通过对相关事态进行的深入分析,认为除改变该地区经济发展模式以减少农业用水外,在公平合理分配水资源的基础上加强国家间的合作,开展全流域水资源的综合开发、利用与管理才是扭转目前危机的最有效的途径。     

GPS网平差软件(GPSurvey)中的观测量权配置

在GPS控制网的处理中不同的参数配置解算的结果也会不一样，配置不好，原本观测质量合格的数据也会解算出不合格的结果，本文根据多年的生产实践，结合实例讨论了在GPSuevey中如何进行GPS网平差中的权配置，才能通过数理统计检验，获得满意的平差结果。     

碳市场、行业竞争力与碳泄漏：以钢铁行业为例

全国碳市场的建设已启动。钢铁行业是被纳入碳市场的主要行业之一,碳市场政策势必对其竞争力带来一定的影响。文中通过构建局部均衡模型,从价格、产量、贸易和碳泄漏等方面定量研究分析碳市场对我国钢铁行业竞争力的影响,并对影响模型结果的关键参数做敏感性分析,包括减排成本曲线、配额分配方式和贸易弹性。研究结果表明,碳市场对于钢铁行业的竞争力影响不太大,但是需要高度关注碳泄漏问题。     

山西数字遥测地震台网的建设

叙述了山西省地震局所承担的“九五”重点项目-山西遥测地震台网的建设过程,台网布局、观测范围、监控能力、资料产出、技术系统及台网建设蝇对某些专题的研究情况,得出山西数字遥测地震台网提高了山西地震监控能力的结论。     

基于GIS的社区地震应急避难场所配置模型构建——以银川市育林巷社区为例

在快速城市化下,城镇人口密集,地震应急避难场所配置成为社区防灾减灾规划研究的重要研究内容。本文基于当前社区空间结构,立足于社区地震应急避难需求,应用LA模型理论和GIS空间分析方法,构建社区地震应急避难场所配置模型。选择银川市育林巷社区为对象开展实证研究,结果表明：当避难路径长度为700 m时,避难场所服务区域可覆盖所有避难需求点;通过配置模型优化,目前的避难场所可满足社区90%居民的有效避难需求,但仍存在避难需求缺口;社区的总体避难空间有待改、扩建,按照居民区布局增加有效避难空间。该研究可为城市社区防震减灾规划的避难设施优化配置提供理论基础。     

Reaching a climate agreement: compensating for energy market effects of climate policy

Because of large economic and environmental asymmetries among world regions and the incentive to free ride, an international climate regime with broad participation is hard to reach. Most of the proposed regimes are based on an allocation of emissions rights that is perceived as fair. Yet, there are also arguments to focus more on the actual welfare implications of different regimes and to focus on a ‘fair’ distribution of resulting costs. In this article, the computable general equilibrium model DART is used to analyse the driving forces of welfare implications in different scenarios in line with the 2?°C target. These include two regimes that are often presumed to be ‘fair’, namely a harmonized international carbon tax and a cap and trade system based on the convergence of per capita emissions rights, and also an ‘equal loss’ scenario where welfare losses relative to a business-as-usual scenario are equal for all major world regions. The main finding is that indirect energy market effects are a major driver of welfare effects and that the ‘equal loss’ scenario would thus require large transfer payments to energy exporters to compensate for welfare losses from lower world energy demand and prices.

Policy relevance

A successful future climate regime requires ‘fair’ burden sharing. Many proposed regimes start from ethical considerations to derive an allocation of emissions reduction requirements or emissions allowances within an international emissions trading scheme. Yet, countries also consider the expected economic costs of a regime that are also driven by other factors besides allowance allocation. Indeed, in simplified lab experiments, successful groups are characterized by sharing costs proportional to wealth. This article shows that the major drivers of welfare effects are reduced demand for fossil energy and reduced fossil fuel prices, which implies that (1) what is often presumed to be a fair allocation of emissions allowances within an international emissions trading scheme leads to a very uneven distribution of economic costs and (2) aiming for equal relative losses for all regions requires large compensation to fossil fuel exporters, as argued, for example, by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).     

Climate politics at a crossroad: views on building a consensus

The climate change issue faces a big challenge, perhaps the biggest challenge of all—politics. Pakistan has taken many noticeable steps in relation to climate change: (1) it is the only country in which the Prime Minister is heading an inter-ministerial task force on climate change, (2) it is the first developing country to establish a specialized, self-financed scientific centre to research the impact of climate change, and (3) it is the lead country to earmark budgetary funds for a national carbon sequestration programme. Pakistan, together with many developing countries, has much to offer the climate change issues. The author proposes five approaches to build consensus among climate policy negotiators: (1) reinforcing the polluter pays principle and ‘common but differentiated responsibility’, (2) active partnership by developing countries, (3) recognizing the voluntary actions taken by developing countries, (4) reinforcing the issue of adaptation, and (5) considering the option of equal per capita entitlements.