2050年前长江流域地表水资源变化趋势

 利用ECHAM5/MPI-OM气候模式预估2001-2050年长江流域不同排放情景（SRES-A2,A1B,B1）下径流深的变化,分析了长江流域地表水资源量的时空变化特征。结果表明：3种排放情景下长江流域多年平均地表水资源量相差不大,但不同排放情景下年际变化特征较为复杂,且变化趋势有所不同。其中,A2高排放情景下地表水资源量呈缓慢减小的趋势,A1B中等排放情景下变化趋势不明显,B1低排放情景下呈相对最为显著的增加趋势。地表水资源量年代际变化波动幅度也较大,2001-2030年3种情景下地表水资源量总体呈现下降特征,但从2030年起,则均表现出不同程度的增加,最高增幅达7.47%,其中尤以夏季和冬季增加显著。模式预估长江流域未来水资源量仍保持目前水平,水资源空间分布不均匀特征仍较为突出。     

高原东移对流系统对西南低涡形成的作用

Based on the temperature of the black body (TBB), station observed and NCEP reanalysis data, the impacts of the eastward propagation of convective cloud systems over the Tibetan Plateau on the southwest vortex (SWV) formation that occurred at 1800 UTC on 29 June 2003 are analyzed by using the Zwack-Okossi (Z-O) equation to diagnose the thermal and dynamic processes. It is found that, in summer, severe convective activities often occur over the Tibetan Plateau due to the abundant supply of moisture. The convective cloud near the east edge of the plateau could move eastward with a short-wave trough in the westerly. The divergent center that is induced by latent heat release, which is associated with severe convective activities, moves out with the convective cloud and contributes to the low level decompression which is favorable for the formation of plateau edge cyclogenesis (PEC). The Z-O equation indicates that, in this case, the latent heat release and convergence are the two most important factors for SWV formation, which amounts to about 42% and 15% of the term TOTAL, respectively. It is implied that the thermal process effect was more important than the dynamic process during SWV formation.     

Correlation analysis of persistent heavy rainfall events in the vicinity of the Yangtze River valley and global outgoing longwave radiation in the preceding month

Based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) daily satellite dataset of global outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) for the period of 1974--2004 and the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis for 1971--2004, the linkage between persistent heavy rainfall (PHR) events in the vicinity of the Yangtze River valley and global OLR leading up to those events (with 1- to 30-day lag) was investigated. The results reveal that there is a significant connection between the initiation of PHR events over the study area and anomalous convective activity over the tropical Indian Ocean, maritime continent, and tropical western Pacific Ocean. During the 30-day period prior to the onset of PHR events, the major significantly anomalous convective centers have an apparent dipole structure, always with enhanced convection in the west and suppressed convection in the east. This dipole structure continuously shifts eastward with time during the 30-day lead period. The influence of the anomalous convective activity over the tropical oceans on the initiation of PHR events over the study area is achieved via an interaction between tropical and extratropical latitudes. More specifically, anomalous convective activity weakens the Walker circulation cell over the tropical Indian Ocean first. This is followed by a weakening of the Indian summer monsoon background state and the excitation and dispersion of Rossby wave activity over Eurasia. Finally, a major modulation of the large scale background circulation occurs. As a result, the condition of a phase-lock among major large scale circulation features favoring PHR events is established over the study area.     

欧亚中高纬春季地表感热异常与长江中下游夏季降水的可能联系

利用国家气候中心提供的中国区域753站降水观测资料、ECMWF逐月地表感热通量再分析资料和NECP/NCAR再分析资料,讨论了欧亚大陆中高纬春季地表感热异常与长江中下游夏季降水之间的联系及其相关的物理机制。分析发现欧亚大陆中高纬春季地表感热异常与长江中下游地区夏季降水存在显著的正相关:感热偏强期,长江中下游夏季降水偏多;感热偏弱期,长江中下游夏季降水偏少。春季感热异常偏强时,夏季东亚副热带西风急流主体位置偏东、强度偏强、范围偏大,长江中下游地区主要受辐合上升气流控制,水汽输送条件好,降水异常偏多。而春季感热偏弱时,情况大致相反,则夏季降水异常偏少。研究表明欧亚大陆中高纬春季地表感热通量异常变化对我国长江中下游夏季降水预测具有一定的指示意义。     

青岛垭口—八仙墩变质海相碎屑岩的属性和构造意义

青岛垭口—八仙墩变质海相碎屑岩分布面积大,保留了原生的各种沉积构造,为一套浊积岩系,应归属于扬子板块上奥陶统,建议命名为八仙墩组。浊积岩系中的砾岩含花岗质砾石、角闪岩砾石和长英质砾石,可以为复原上奥陶世扬子板块大陆边缘沉积环境和研究物源区大地构造背景提供良好的研究素材。岩石地球化学成份判别为硬砂岩和页岩,也佐证了本套地层为浊积岩系。弱的Ce/Ce~*负异常,说明了海相沉积成因,也表明陆源碎屑物对沉积岩的主导作用。(Fe_2O_3+MgO)-TiO_2图解、La-Th-Sc图解和Th-Sc-Zr/10图解表明本套碎屑岩具有活动大陆边缘背景和大陆岛弧的共同特征,但从比较高的La丰度、Ce丰度和∑REE丰度,可以判断八仙墩碎屑岩为活动大陆边缘背景下发育的浊积岩系。通过露头的构造地质分析,推断本套地层是在扬子板块陆壳物质向华北板块下深俯冲过程期间或其后扬子板块陆壳上部盖层继续向华北板块仰冲就位的,在超高压变质岩折返时经历了由北向南的逆冲。本套碎屑岩明确指示在南黄海盆地深部应该有古生界奥陶统的地层,盆地深部的同一套地层应该具有油气储层和盖层的性能。     

长江上游夏季径流量年际增量预测模型及检验

基于1980-2020年长江上游夏季径流量、降水和气温等资料,采用小波分析、最优子集回归等方法,分析径流量、降水量和气温的变化关系,探讨引发径流量变化的前兆气候异常信号,并构建径流量年际增量预测模型.结果 表明:径流量多寡直接取决于流域总降水量,两者表现出显著的准两年周期振荡特征,年际增量之间的相关系数(TCC)为0....     

西南地区铀资源勘查程度与下一步勘查工作基本思路

介绍了西南地区铀资源勘查程度与勘查成果,分析了铀资源勘查过程中存在的主要问题以及亟待解决的问题。在此基础上,提出了西南地区下一步铀资源勘查的基本思路。     

扬子地区典型剖面二叠系不同沉积相地球化学特征

对扬子地区2个典型剖面即四川广元上寺剖面和贵州罗甸纳水剖面二叠系系统采样,在沉积相研究的基础上,对华南二叠系碳酸盐岩地层不同沉积相地球化学特征进行了分析。研究表明:Co、Ba、V、Rb等具有指相意义的元素,在越靠近深水环境,Co、Ba、V、Rb平均丰度越高,而w(Sr)/w(Ba)值从开阔台地相到盆地相整体有降低趋势。贵州罗甸纳水剖面为斜坡沉积背景的典型剖面,从台地前斜坡相→陆棚相→斜坡相→盆地相,w(ΣREE)值逐渐增大,且各相带稀土元素配分模式存在明显的Ce异常。四川广元上寺剖面二叠系浅海陆棚相下部和盆地相地层中平均残余有机碳丰度大于1.5%,说明这2个沉积相带可能为该地区优质烃源岩发育相带,该剖面二叠系显示从开阔台地相到盆地相具有有机质逐渐富集的特点。     

Remobilisation of deep Na-Cl waters by a regional flow system in the Alps: Case study of Saint-Gervais-les-Bains (France)

The hydrothermal system of Saint-Gervais-les-Bains, France is located in a south western low-elevation point of the Aiguilles Rouges crystalline Massif. The crystalline rocks are not directly outcropping in the studied area but certainly exist beyond 300 m depth. Uprising waters are pumped from two different aquifers below the Quaternary deposits of the Bon Nant Valley. In the Lower Trias-Permian aquifer crossed by De Mey boreholes (27–36 °C), the ascending Na-SO₄ and high-Cl thermal water from the basement (4.8 g/L) is mostly mixed by a Ca-SO₄ and low-Cl cold water circulating in the autochthonous cover of the Aiguilles Rouges Basement. The origin of the saline thermal water probably results from infiltration and circulation in the basement until it reaches deep thrust faults with leaching of residual brines or fluid inclusions at depth (Cl/Br molar ratio lower than 655). The dissolution of Triassic halite (Cl/Br > 1000) is not possible at Saint-Gervais-les-Bains because the Triassic cold waters have a low-Cl concentration (< 20 mg/L). Water–rock interactions occur during the upflow via north–south strike-slip faults in the basement and later on in the autochthonous cover. For the De Mey Est borehole, gypsum dissolution is occurring with cationic exchanges involving Na, as well as low-temperature Mg dissolution from dolomite in the Triassic formations. The aquifer of imbricated structures (Upper-Middle Trias) crossed by the Lépinay well (39 °C) contains thermal waters, which are strongly mixed with a low-Cl water, where gypsum dissolution also occurs. The infiltration area for the thermal end-member is in the range 1700–2100 m, close to the Lavey-les-Bains hydrothermal system corresponding to the Aiguilles Rouges Massif. For the Ca-SO₄ and low-Cl end-member, the infiltration area is lower (1100–1300 m) showing circulation from the Mont Joly Massif. The geothermometry method indicates a reservoir temperature of probably up to 65 °C but not exceeding 100 °C.     

近30年我国南方区域持续性暴雨过程的分类研究

利用中国站点日降水资料对1981~2011年我国南方地区区域持续性暴雨(PHREs)进行了分类研究。按照区域内至少连续5 d或5 d以上有不小于10个格点[分辨率0.25o(纬度)×0.25o(经度)]出现大于等于50 mm降水且相邻两日雨带重合率不小于20%的标准,采用客观分析的方法分别挑选出我国江淮区域和华南区域PHREs。江淮区域非台风影响的PHREs 31例,集中发生在6月中旬到7月中旬,平均持续8.29 d,华南非台风影响的PHREs 34例,集中发生在6~7月,平均持续6.24 d,这两类事件的发生频次和强度均呈年代际增长。江淮区域受台风影响的PHREs 4例,集中发生在7月中下旬到8月初。华南受台风系统影响的PHREs 31例,集中发生在7~9月,此类事件的发生频次和系统强度在2000年以后均明显上升。采用场相关的客观分类方法对非台风影响的PHREs进行较为细致的分类,将江淮区域持续性暴雨事件分为A型(主雨带在长江以南)、B型(主雨带在长江以北)和C型(主雨带在长江沿江地区),将华南区域持续性暴雨事件分为E型(主雨带在云贵高原以东)和F型(主雨带位于云贵高原和广西),该分类将为下一步的机制研究提供帮助。