纳入动态数据的改进FLUS模型在城市增长边界划定中的应用

城市增长边界是管控城市建设用地无序扩张的有效手段,科学合理划定城市增长边界是当前研究关注的重要课题。本研究试图引入百度动态交通时间和POI数据改进FLUS模型,以长沙市中心城区为例,采用2000、2010和2018年3期土地利用数据对比验证改进FLUS模型模拟精度,并利用改进FLUS模型设置2种情景,模拟2030年长沙市中心城区土地利用变化,结合用地适宜性评价划定城市增长边界。结果显示：① 纳入动态数据的改进FLUS模型模拟2010年和2018年土地利用相比原模型KAPPA系数提高了2.90%和2.74%,总体精度提高了1.79%和1.83%,表明改进模型具有更高模拟精度;② 利用改进FLUS模型模拟的2030年长沙市中心城区土地利用变化,基准情景和生态保护情景建设用地规模分别为930.06 km²和881.36 km²,均以耕地转为建设用地比例最大;③ 长沙市中心城区刚性增长边界范围为1479.59 km²,占中心城区总面积的37.38%,边界内包含了芙蓉区、天心区、雨花区、岳麓区和开福区的大部分区域;④ 基准情景和生态保护情景下,长沙市中心城区弹性增长边界面积分别为799.35 km²和742.92 km²,建设用地扩张空间主要为长沙县和望城区,结果与2010版长沙市城市总体规划拓展方向一致。纳入动态数据的改进FLUS模型多情景模拟划定城市增长边界,能更高精度的为规划决策提供科学依据。     

2015年汛期我国南方季节内东西反相旱涝型及环流特征

本文利用站点数据、再分析数据,采用经验正交函数分解(EOF)、合成分析等统计方法,探讨了2015年汛期(4—9月)内我国南方逐候降水的空间模态及其对应的环流特征。结果表明:2015年汛期,南方地区汛期总体表现为东西反向降水型,体现了强El Nino发展年的一般特征,但进一步分析发现汛期内候尺度东西反向降水型具有多样性特征。对候尺度降水资料EOF展开后的第一模态(EOF1)和第三模态(EOF3)为两类东西反相型降水,在对流层高、中、低层都有明显的差异。EOF1东多西少(A1)型是由低层菲律宾反气旋主导的降水型,副热带高压偏强西伸显著,南亚高压偏强偏东,我国南方东部的大部分地区降水偏多。而EOF3的东多西少(A2)型是由热带气旋活动主导的降水型,南海北部为气旋式环流;副热带高压偏强,相对于A1型偏东;南亚高压较常年同期偏强、偏东,东南沿海降水偏多。EOF1的东少西多(B1)型明显受到南下冷空气活动的影响,副热带高压偏强,位置相对偏东,印缅槽增强,有利于南方西部降水偏多。而EOF3的东少西多(B2)型是菲律宾反气旋位置异常主导的结果,副热带高压明显偏强偏西,引导水汽到南方西部地区。2015年汛期内东西反相旱涝型与菲律宾反气旋活动及位置、热带气旋活动及位置、冷空气活动路径有密切的关系,受到多种环流配置的影响。     

Delineating Hierarchical Hospital Service Areas in Florida

Hospital service area (HSA) and hospital referral region (HRR), known as a hierarchical HSA system, have been used as analysis units in a growing body of large‐scale studies of healthcare spending, utilization, and outcome in the United States. However, the popular Dartmouth HSAs and HRRs were produced more than two decades ago and are unable to represent contemporary healthcare markets. This research uses a revised Huff Model to delineate two levels of hospital service areas in Florida, resulting in sixty‐four HSAs nested in twenty‐one HRRs. Three elements distinguish our method from existing work. First, a best‐fitting distance‐decay function derived from the actual travel pattern of hospitalization is embedded in the Huff Model to strengthen the model's theoretical foundation in individual spatial behavior. Secondly, the hierarchal central place structure is supported by the differing travel‐friction coefficients for general versus specialized patients; general patients experience a steeper gradient and thus a shorter average travel range that supports delineating more HSAs of smaller area size, and specialized patients exhibit a flatter gradient and thus a longer average travel range that leads to fewer HRRs of large‐sized areas. Finally, the delineation method automated in geographic information systems (GIS) can be easily replicated in other regions to define large‐scale and consistent hierarchical HSA systems.     

国家中心城市竞争力及其职能演变——基于上市企业总部的研究

国家中心城市是核心和枢纽城市,也是大企业最为集聚的地方。企业总部是企业的决策和命令中心,拥有大企业总部的数量及企业总部规模是衡量国家中心城市竞争力的重要指标。利用国内上市企业的数据,计算中国城市的控制和命令指数（简称CCI指数）,从全国尺度考察北京、上海和广州等8个国家中心城市的竞争力及其职能演化,并剖析国家中心城市总部职能的专业化格局。结果发现：北京和上海两个城市控制和支配功能要远远强于其他国家中心城市,一直位居前两位。从2005年到2014年,北京的CCI指数显著增强,且优势逐渐扩大。北京地位的显著提升很大程度上得益于金融业央企的上市和增长,这是北京作为政治中心的独特优势进一步释放的结果。而其余国家中心城市的CCI指数大多呈现下降趋势。在行业上,金融业、制造业和采矿业一直占据中国经济的主要控制与支配地位。过去10年,金融业在经济中的地位显著增强,尤其是东部大城市的金融业CCI指数普遍有大幅提升;相反,制造业和采矿业的控制与支配功能则明显减弱。对国家中心城市的分析来看,北京、上海和广州在大部分行业中都具有明显优势,属于全国性的综合型大城市。而其余5个国家中心城市的功能专业化程度较低。此外,8个国家中心城市与周边区域发展的相互联系存在明显差异,究其原因在于区域经济发展程度和城市产业发展特点。     

气候变化对中国集中供暖气候指标的影响

应用高空间分辨率的网格逐日气象数据,根据国家集中供暖有关设计规范定义了集中供暖气候指标,分析了气候变暖对中国集中供暖气候指标的影响。结果表明：近55 a来中国集中供暖初日均呈后延趋势,初日特征线年代际南北移动较小。供暖终日均呈提前趋势,终日特征线在110°E以东地区南北移动较大,2000年以来终日特征线较20世纪60年代北抬了200~300 km。供暖期长度均呈减少趋势,东北、华北地区近55 a减少了10~15 d,西北地区减少了15~20 d;东北、华北、西北地区供暖强度分别减少了12%、20%、15%。从1991~2015年冬季气温变化来看,东北地区最冷冬季与最暖冬季的温度相差可达6.2℃,对供暖强度的影响可达28.9%,华北和西北地区冬季气温最大变幅分别为3.7℃、3.3℃,对供暖强度的影响分别为26.8%和17.6%。气候变暖对中国集中供热气候指标产生了显著的影响。供热部门应该根据天气变化来安排供暖,同时还要注意气候变暖背景下极端冷事件的发生,保证集中供暖安全运行。     

Agents of landscape change in southern New Zealand, 1896–1920

The records of two large stock and station agents, Loan & Mercantile Agency in Dunedin and Wright Stephenson in Invercargill, allowed us to track the timing, nature, magnitude and rate of landscape change in southern New Zealand between 1896 and 1920. This period extends from the final years of subdivision of large estates, and includes closer settlement, the shift from pastoral farming to intensive agriculture, growth of dairying, and increasing mechanisation of agriculture. These changes are reflected in clients’ annual expenditures on capital items such as fencing and building materials, tools and implements, materials for drains.     

Record Low Sea-Ice Concentration in the Central Arctic during Summer 2010

The Arctic sea-ice extent has shown a declining trend over the past 30 years. Ice coverage reached historic minima in 2007 and again in 2012. This trend has recently been assessed to be unique over at least the last 1450 years. In the summer of 2010, a very low sea-ice concentration(SIC) appeared at high Arctic latitudes—even lower than that of surrounding pack ice at lower latitudes. This striking low ice concentration—referred to here as a record low ice concentration in the central Arctic(CARLIC)—is unique in our analysis period of 2003–15, and has not been previously reported in the literature. The CARLIC was not the result of ice melt, because sea ice was still quite thick based on in-situ ice thickness measurements.Instead, divergent ice drift appears to have been responsible for the CARLIC. A high correlation between SIC and wind stress curl suggests that the sea ice drift during the summer of 2010 responded strongly to the regional wind forcing. The drift trajectories of ice buoys exhibited a transpolar drift in the Atlantic sector and an eastward drift in the Pacific sector,which appeared to benefit the CARLIC in 2010. Under these conditions, more solar energy can penetrate into the open water,increasing melt through increased heat flux to the ocean. We speculate that this divergence of sea ice could occur more often in the coming decades, and impact on hemispheric SIC and feed back to the climate.     

中国东中西部城市土地储备决策绩效比较研究

运用数据包络分析(DEA)模型,对2013年中国内地34个大中城市土地储备决策绩效进行总体评价和比较分析。研究结果表明:东部地区城市土地储备决策效率最高,西部次之,中部最低;土地储备决策效率受到纯技术效率和规模效率的共同作用,且规模效率作用较大;影响东中西部城市土地储备决策效率投入产出的主要因素各不相同。基于此,从深化土地及相关制度改革和提升政府管理效率两个层面提出土地储备决策绩效优化策略,从而提高土地资源利用效率、优化城市空间结构。     

The Middle and Upper Devonian in southeastern flank of the Siberian platform (Southern Verkhoyansk Region,Sette-Daban Mountain Range)

Data on Middle and Upper Devonian deposits studied in southeastern flank of the Siberian platform are considered. A scheme of stratigraphic zoning in the study region is presented. Nineteen sedimentological and biotic events, which are recorded in the studied sections, are of the regional, interregional and global ranks. Their connection with eustatic sea-level fluctuations is established. Sections of the formation and regional horizon stratotypes and parastratotypes are described. The revision of species Mucrospirifer novosibiricus (Toll) is carried out.     

末次冰期晚期以来地层序列与地质环境特征——渤海南部地区沉积序列研究

就渤海南部末次冰期晚期以来的地层序列与地质环境演化特征,将研究区划分出４个沉积环境区,分别选择４个典型钻孔（ＺＫ１０１,ＺＫ２２８,Ｃ３０５,Ｙ８６）进行了对比研究。选用２７个钻孔联成２８２ｋｍ长的地层剖面,剖面明显反应出郯庐断裂带挽近的运动及现代黄河三角洲体的均衡作用。同时,分析了本区全新世气候及海侵边界层