千岛岛弧大震前哈佛大学矩心矩张量（CMT）解一致性的预测意义s

千岛岛弧地区属于全球地震活动最为活跃的地区之一. 本文利用哈佛大学测定的千岛岛弧地区地震的矩心矩张量（CMT）解， 分析该地区震源机制的一致性特征， 提出利用震源机制和构造应力场的一致性参数a进行地震预测的思路. 研究结果表明，MＷge;7.5地震之前， 都有一致性参数a降低的现象，a的低值起始的时间在发生大震之前的10多天至110多天， a的低值截止的日期距大震在30多天至2天. 相互之间虽然并不完全一致， 但是差别不大. 这种现象的稳定性， 尚需时间的检验， 但是设想在长达数百公里的地区， 连续发生MＷge;5.3的地震的震源机制都与构造应力场一致， 应当不是随机的现象， 而是一种具有预测意义的现象. 当积累的震例足够多时， 则有可能确定统一的评判标准和预测准则.      

Buckling of Piles under Liquefied Soil Conditions

The paper pertains to the analysis of piles embedded in liquefiable soils to predict its’ critical buckling load under partial to full loss of lateral support over a portion of the pile length. The analysis is based on extension of Mindlin solution for a point load acting inside a semi infinite elastic half space. Degenerated solutions obtained by using the developed method compares very well with reported results. Parametric studies showed that the depth of liquefiable soil, degradation of soil strength on liquefaction, slenderness ratio, pile stiffness factor and end conditions have significant influence on the buckling behavior of the piles.     

Focal mechanisms of recent earthquakes in the Southern Korean Peninsula

We evaluate the stress field in and around the southern Korean Peninsula with focal mechanism solutions, using the data collected from 71 earthquakes ( M_L = 1.9–5.2) between 1999 and 2004. For this, the hypocentres were relocated and well-constrained fault plane solutions were obtained from the data set of 1270 clear P -wave polarities and 46 SH / P amplitude ratios. The focal mechanism solutions indicate that the prevailing faulting types in South Korea are strike-slip-dominant-oblique-slip faultings with minor reverse-slip component. The maximum principal stresses (σ₁) estimated from fault-slip inversion analysis of the focal mechanism solutions show a similar orientation with E–W trend (269°–275°) and low-angle plunge (10°–25°) for all tectonic provinces in South Korea, consistent with the E–W trending maximum horizontal stress (σ_Hmax) of the Amurian microplate reported from in situ stress measurements and earthquake focal mechanisms. The directions of the intermediate (σ₂) and minimum (σ₃) principal stresses of the Gyeongsang Basin are, however, about 90 deg off from those of the other tectonic provinces on a common σ₂–σ₃ plane, suggesting a permutation of σ₂ and σ₃. Our results incorporated with those from the kinematic studies of the Quaternary faults imply that NNW- to NE-striking faults (dextral strike-slip or oblique-slip with a reverse-slip component) are highly likely to generate earthquakes in South Korea.     

Two-dimensional power series solution for non-axisymmetrical transport in a radially convergent tracer test with scale-dependent dispersion

It has been known for many years that dispersivity increases with solute travel distance in a subsurface environment. The increase of dispersivity with solute travel distance results from the significant variation of hydraulic properties of heterogeneous media and was identified in the literature as scale-dependent dispersion. This study presents an analytical solution for describing two-dimensional non-axisymmetrical solute transport in a radially convergent flow tracer test with scale-dependent dispersion. The power series technique coupling with the Laplace and finite Fourier cosine transform has been applied to yield the analytical solution to the two-dimensional, scale-dependent advection–dispersion equation in cylindrical coordinates with variable-dependent coefficients. Comparison between the breakthrough curves of the power series solution and the numerical solutions shows excellent agreement at different observation points and for various ranges of scale-related transport parameters of interest. The developed power series solution facilitates fast prediction of the breakthrough curves at any observation point.     

An analytical solution to multi-component NAPL dissolution equations

This note presents a novel method for determining the changing composition of a multi-component NAPL body dissolving into moving groundwater, and the consequent changes in the aqueous phase solute concentrations in the surrounding pore water. A canonical system of coupled non-linear governing equations is derived which is suitable for representation of both pooled and residual configurations, and this is solved. Whereas previous authors have handled such problems numerically, it is shown that these governing equations succumb to analytical solution. By a suitable substitution, the equations become decoupled, and the problem collapses to a single first-order equation. The final result is expressed implicitly, with time as a function of the number of moles of the least soluble component, m₁. The number of moles of each other component is expressed explicitly in terms of m₁. It is shown that the time-m₁ relationship has a well behaved inverse. An example is given in which the analytic solution is verified against traditional finite difference analysis, and its computational efficiency is shown.     

Analytical models of contaminant transport in coastal aquifers

The Henry formulation, which couples subsurface flow and salt transport via a variable-density flow formulation, can be used to evaluate the extent of sea water intrusion into coastal aquifers. The coupling gives rise to nontrivial flow patterns that are very different from those observed in inland aquifers. We investigate the influence of these flow patterns on the transport of conservative contaminants in a coastal aquifer. The flow is characterized by two dimensionless parameters: the Péclet number, which compares the relative effects of advective and dispersive transport mechanisms, and a coupling parameter, which describes the importance of the salt water boundary on the flow. We focus our attention on two regimes – low and intermediate Péclet number flows. Two transport scenarios are solved analytically by means of a perturbation analysis. The first, a natural attenuation scenario, describes the flushing of a contaminant from a coastal aquifer by clean fresh water, while the second, a contaminant spill scenario, considers an isolated point source.     

Effective macroscopic transport parameters between parallel plates with constant concentration boundaries

A macroscopic transport model is developed, following the Taylor shear dispersion analysis procedure, for a 2D laminar shear flow between parallel plates possessing a constant specified concentration. This idealized geometry models flow with contaminant dissolution at pore-scale in a contaminant source zone and flow in a rock fracture with dissolving walls. We upscale a macroscopic transient transport model with effective transport coefficients of mean velocity, macroscopic dispersion, and first-order mass transfer rate. To validate the macroscopic model the mean concentration, covariance, and wall concentration gradient are compared to the results of numerical simulations of the advection–diffusion equation and the Graetz solution. Results indicate that in the presence of local-scale variations and constant concentration boundaries, the upscaled mean velocity and macrodispersion coefficient differ from those of the Taylor–Aris dispersion, and the mass transfer flux described by the first-order mass transfer model is larger than the diffusive mass flux from the constant wall. In addition, the upscaled first-order mass transfer coefficient in the macroscopic model depends only on the plate gap and diffusion coefficient. Therefore, the upscaled first-order mass transfer coefficient is independent of the mean velocity and travel distance, leading to a constant pore-scale Sherwood number of 12. By contrast, the effective Sherwood number determined by the diffusive mass flux is a function of the Peclet number for small Peclet number, and approaches a constant of 10.3 for large Peclet number.     

拟合推估新用——新逼近模式

作为拟合推估的新用之一，提出一种带有随机量的新逼近模式，将拟合推估的通行算法，去短取长，藉以推得良好的插值。     

圆弧形凹陷地形表面覆盖层对入射平面SV波的影响

利用Fourier Bessel级数展开法，给出了表面具有覆盖层的圆弧形凹陷地形对入射平面SV波散射问题的一个解析解，并利用该解分析了不同深宽比凹陷地形表面覆盖层刚度和厚度对入射SV波的影响．结果表明，凹陷地形表面覆盖层的存在，即使厚度很薄，也会显著增加对入射SV波的放大作用，该放大作用可达到单一凹陷地形的2.5倍以上．覆盖层刚度和厚度的变化对入射平面SV波也具有很大影响．      

宁夏南部地区地震活动特征

研究了宁夏南部地区（35°20＇～37°40＇N，104°30＇～106°30＇E）小震综合机制解的变化特征．发现在中强地震前，该地区小震综合机制解的P轴方位偏离平均值，向E或SE偏转，其仰角有增大的趋势，同时小震纵波（Pn和Pg）初动符号一致．6次中强地震的震源机制解表明，该地区P轴方位与主压应力方向基本一致，因此该地区发生破坏性地震的可能性不大．近几年来的地震活动图像显示，该地区的地震活动有向中卫、中宁和同心地区集中的迹象．