Detecting patterns of climate change in long-term forecasts of marine environmental parameters

ABSTRACT

Forecasting environmental parameters in the distant future requires complex modelling and large computational resources. Due to the sensitivity and complexity of forecast models, long-term parameter forecasts (e.g. up to 2100) are uncommon and only produced by a few organisations, in heterogeneous formats and based on different assumptions of greenhouse gases emissions. However, data mining techniques can be used to coerce the data to a uniform time and spatial representation, which facilitates their use in many applications. In this paper, streams of big data coming from AquaMaps and NASA collections of 126 long-term forecasts of nine types of environmental parameters are processed through a cloud computing platform in order to (i) standardise and harmonise the data representations, (ii) produce intermediate scenarios and new informative parameters, and (iii) align all sets on a common time and spatial resolution. Time series cross-correlation applied to these aligned datasets reveals patterns of climate change and similarities between parameter trends in 10 marine areas. Our results highlight that (i) the Mediterranean Sea may have a standalone ‘response’ to climate change with respect to other areas, (ii) the Poles are most representative of global forecasted change, and (iii) the trends are generally alarming for most oceans.     

抚顺地区砬子山杂岩体地质特征及成因

砬子山岩体出露于华北地台抚顺—清原古隆起带与吉黑地槽的相接部位。砬子山岩体是由石英闪长岩、似斑状石英二长岩、二长花岗岩和碱长花岗岩构成的杂岩体。4个岩性不同的侵入体构成连续的中-酸性钙碱岩石序列。岩体的地质特征、地球化学特征表明4个侵入体是同源岩浆不同演化阶段的产物。岩浆的演化机制为深部岩浆分异作用,岩浆则是来源于下部地壳。     

On smoothing techniques for the removal of periodic noise of known period

This paper is concerned with the analysis of the linear modely(n)=X(n)+S(n)+(n) for the data sequencey(n) (n=1, 2, ..., N) whereX={x _IJ} is a knownJ × M matrix of full rankM. Here, the(n) are unknown vectors, which we wish to estimate for eachn; S(n) (n=1, 2, ..., N) is a periodic component (which we wish to estimate or remove) superimposed on the linear structureX(n); and(n) is an error vector which is specified as having zero expectation (with possible further properties). Such models commonly occur in geophysical data analysis.Modified from Technical Report No. 33, Computer Centre, The Australian National University.     

Sodium emission from Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 in the magnetosphere of Jupiter

On July 20, 1994, before the Q fragments of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 fell to Jupiter, more than 200 spectra of the Jovian features were obtained at the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory in the wavelength range 5700–7600 Å with a 26 s exposure time and a spectral resolution of 20 Å. We found a time-varying Na D line emission in the form of two components with Doppler shifts of about 30 Å. The brightest and most frequent sodium flares were detected when the Q fragments passed through the Jovian inner magnetosphere at a distance of about three the Jovian radii (3R_J) from its center, where they crossed the Io-Jupiter current tube. A frequency analysis of our data revealed a flare recurrence time scale of 1 min. We conclude that sodium was released from the cometary dust and from the surfaces of numerous cometary debris and that its amount was enough to produce the observed emission. The observed high-speed clouds of sodium atoms are assumed to have been formed through ionization, ion acceleration by the bidirectional electric fields of Alfvén waves in the Io-Jupiter current tube, and their neutralization.     

Convergence of Liapunov Series for Maclaurin Ellipsoids

According to the classical theory of equilibrium figures surfaces of equal density, potential and pressure concur (let call them isobars). Isobars may be represented by means of Liapunov power series in small parameter q, up to the first approximation coincident with centrifugal to gravitational force ratio on the equator. A. M. Liapunov has proved the existence of the universal convergence radius q : above mentioned series converge for all bodies if q < q . Using Liapunov's algorithm and symbolic calculus tools we have calculated q = 0.000370916. Evidently, convergence radius q ₀ may be much greater in non-pathological situations. We plan to examine several simplest cases. In the present paper, we find q ₀ for homogeneous liquid. The convergence radius turns out to be unexpectedly large coinciding with the upper boundary value q ₀ = 0.337 for Maclaurin ellipsoids.     

麦兹地区火山沉积岩型铅-锌矿床地质特征与找矿方向

阿尔泰山南缘的铅-锌矿床主要分布于麦兹地区,为了在其找矿空间和找矿类型上有所突破,详细地阐明了麦兹地区铅-锌矿床的主要地质特征、成因类型及其控矿因素,并结合区域构造演化背景,总结了麦兹地区铅-锌矿床的成矿规律,指明了铅-锌矿床的找矿方向。     

Multi-year drought frequency analysis at multiple sites by operational hydrology - A comparison of methods

This paper compares two generators of yearly water availabilities from sources located at multiple sites with regard to their ability to reproduce the characteristics of historical critical periods and to provide reliable results in terms of the return period of critical sequences of different length. The two models are a novel multi-site Markov mixture model explicitly accounting for drought occurrences and a multivariate ARMA. In the case of the multisite Markov mixture model parameter estimation is limited to a search in the parameter space guided by the value of parameter λ to show the sensitivity of the model to this parameter. Application to two of the longest time series of streamflows available in Sicily (Italy) shows that the models can provide quite different results in terms of estimated return periods of historic droughts, although they seem to perform more uniformly when it comes to simulate drought-related statistics such as drought length, severity and intensity. The role of parameter selection for the multisite Markov mixture model and of the marginal probability of generated flows in providing results consistent with the characteristics of the observed series is discussed. Both models are applied to the system of sources supplying the city of Palermo (Sicily) and its environs showing the applicability of the newly developed multisite Markov mixture model to medium-to-large scale water resources systems.     

Short and long memory unobserved components in hydrological time series

In this paper a semiparametric approach is introduced to decompose an ARFIMA model in the long memory and short memory unobserved components. The procedure is based on the DECOMEL method which produces a statistical decomposition by minimizing the Euclidean distance between the spectrum of the aggregated series and the sum of the parametric spectra of the components. The extension to long memory stationary models is achieved defining an approximate model where the fractional operator is replaced by the ratio of two polynomials of order one. The feasibility and performance of the proposed procedure are discussed through a case study.     

Selection of ground motion time series and limits on scaling

A procedure to select time series for use in non-linear analyses that are intended to result in an average response of the non-linear system is proposed that is not based simply on magnitude, distance, and spectral shape. A simple model of a yielding system is used as a proxy for the non-linear behavior of a more complicated yielding system. As an example, Newmark displacements are used as a proxy for more complex slope-stability models. The candidate scaled time series are evaluated to find those that yield a response of the simple non-linear system that is near the expected response for the design event. Those scaled time series with responses near the expected value are selected as the optimum time series for defining average response even if the scale factors are larger than commonly accepted (e.g. scale factors >factor of 2).