A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)

ABSTRACT

Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in southeastern Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the impact of climate changes on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin, in southeastern Europe, to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The latter is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950–2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013–2070.     

Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system coupled with shuffled frog leaping algorithm for predicting river streamflow time series

ABSTRACT

Accurate runoff forecasting plays a key role in catchment water management and water resources system planning. To improve the prediction accuracy, one needs to strive to develop a reliable and accurate forecasting model for streamflow. In this study, the novel combination of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model with the shuffled frog-leaping algorithm (SFLA) is proposed. Historical streamflow data of two different rivers were collected to examine the performance of the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model, six different scenarios for the model input–output architecture were investigated. The results show that the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model (R² = 0.88; NS = 0.88; RMSE = 142.30 (m³/s); MAE = 88.94 (m³/s); MAPE = 35.19%) significantly improved the forecasting accuracy and outperformed the classic ANFIS model (R² = 0.83; NS = 0.83; RMSE = 167.81; MAE = 115.83 (m³/s); MAPE = 45.97%). The proposed model could be generalized and applied in different rivers worldwide.     

Comparative hydrogeology – reference analysis of groundwater dynamics from neighbouring observation wells

ABSTRACT

Groundwater level fluctuations are caused by spatial and temporal superposition of processes within and outside the aquifer system. Most of the subsurface processes are usually observed on a small scale. Upscaling to the regional scale, as required for future climate change scenarios, is difficult due to data scarcity and increasing complexity. In contrast to the limited availability of system characteristics, high-resolution data records of groundwater hydrographs are more generally available. Exploiting the information contained in these records should thus be a priority for analysis of the chronical lack of data describing groundwater system characteristics. This study analyses the applicability of 63 indices derived from daily hydrographs to quantify different dynamics of groundwater levels in unconfined gravel aquifers from three groundwater regions (Bavaria, Germany). Based on the results of two different skill tests, the study aids index selection for different dynamic components of groundwater hydrographs.     

Detecting patterns of climate change in long-term forecasts of marine environmental parameters

ABSTRACT

Forecasting environmental parameters in the distant future requires complex modelling and large computational resources. Due to the sensitivity and complexity of forecast models, long-term parameter forecasts (e.g. up to 2100) are uncommon and only produced by a few organisations, in heterogeneous formats and based on different assumptions of greenhouse gases emissions. However, data mining techniques can be used to coerce the data to a uniform time and spatial representation, which facilitates their use in many applications. In this paper, streams of big data coming from AquaMaps and NASA collections of 126 long-term forecasts of nine types of environmental parameters are processed through a cloud computing platform in order to (i) standardise and harmonise the data representations, (ii) produce intermediate scenarios and new informative parameters, and (iii) align all sets on a common time and spatial resolution. Time series cross-correlation applied to these aligned datasets reveals patterns of climate change and similarities between parameter trends in 10 marine areas. Our results highlight that (i) the Mediterranean Sea may have a standalone ‘response’ to climate change with respect to other areas, (ii) the Poles are most representative of global forecasted change, and (iii) the trends are generally alarming for most oceans.     

抚顺地区砬子山杂岩体地质特征及成因

砬子山岩体出露于华北地台抚顺—清原古隆起带与吉黑地槽的相接部位。砬子山岩体是由石英闪长岩、似斑状石英二长岩、二长花岗岩和碱长花岗岩构成的杂岩体。4个岩性不同的侵入体构成连续的中-酸性钙碱岩石序列。岩体的地质特征、地球化学特征表明4个侵入体是同源岩浆不同演化阶段的产物。岩浆的演化机制为深部岩浆分异作用,岩浆则是来源于下部地壳。     

On smoothing techniques for the removal of periodic noise of known period

This paper is concerned with the analysis of the linear modely(n)=X(n)+S(n)+(n) for the data sequencey(n) (n=1, 2, ..., N) whereX={x _IJ} is a knownJ × M matrix of full rankM. Here, the(n) are unknown vectors, which we wish to estimate for eachn; S(n) (n=1, 2, ..., N) is a periodic component (which we wish to estimate or remove) superimposed on the linear structureX(n); and(n) is an error vector which is specified as having zero expectation (with possible further properties). Such models commonly occur in geophysical data analysis.Modified from Technical Report No. 33, Computer Centre, The Australian National University.     

Sodium emission from Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 in the magnetosphere of Jupiter

On July 20, 1994, before the Q fragments of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 fell to Jupiter, more than 200 spectra of the Jovian features were obtained at the Crimean Astrophysical Observatory in the wavelength range 5700–7600 Å with a 26 s exposure time and a spectral resolution of 20 Å. We found a time-varying Na D line emission in the form of two components with Doppler shifts of about 30 Å. The brightest and most frequent sodium flares were detected when the Q fragments passed through the Jovian inner magnetosphere at a distance of about three the Jovian radii (3R_J) from its center, where they crossed the Io-Jupiter current tube. A frequency analysis of our data revealed a flare recurrence time scale of 1 min. We conclude that sodium was released from the cometary dust and from the surfaces of numerous cometary debris and that its amount was enough to produce the observed emission. The observed high-speed clouds of sodium atoms are assumed to have been formed through ionization, ion acceleration by the bidirectional electric fields of Alfvén waves in the Io-Jupiter current tube, and their neutralization.     

Convergence of Liapunov Series for Maclaurin Ellipsoids

According to the classical theory of equilibrium figures surfaces of equal density, potential and pressure concur (let call them isobars). Isobars may be represented by means of Liapunov power series in small parameter q, up to the first approximation coincident with centrifugal to gravitational force ratio on the equator. A. M. Liapunov has proved the existence of the universal convergence radius q : above mentioned series converge for all bodies if q < q . Using Liapunov's algorithm and symbolic calculus tools we have calculated q = 0.000370916. Evidently, convergence radius q ₀ may be much greater in non-pathological situations. We plan to examine several simplest cases. In the present paper, we find q ₀ for homogeneous liquid. The convergence radius turns out to be unexpectedly large coinciding with the upper boundary value q ₀ = 0.337 for Maclaurin ellipsoids.     

麦兹地区火山沉积岩型铅-锌矿床地质特征与找矿方向

阿尔泰山南缘的铅-锌矿床主要分布于麦兹地区,为了在其找矿空间和找矿类型上有所突破,详细地阐明了麦兹地区铅-锌矿床的主要地质特征、成因类型及其控矿因素,并结合区域构造演化背景,总结了麦兹地区铅-锌矿床的成矿规律,指明了铅-锌矿床的找矿方向。