1999年9月14日和11月30日四川绵竹两次5.0级地震预报

1999年在四川省德阳市绵竹县发生了两次5.0级地震.其中1999年11月30日绵竹汉旺5.0级地震前,德阳市地震局对该次地震的时问、地区、震级三要素做出了准确的短临预报.该项预报在人口稠密经济发达的四川德阳地区成功实现,取得了良好的社会和经济效益,得到了中国地震局,德阳市人民政府的充分肯定,并予以表彰和奖励.     

Mobile Communications,Social Networks,and Urban Travel: Hypertext as a New Metaphor for Conceptualizing Spatial Interaction*

The widespread use of mobile communications is leading to new practices in family life and social life, and these changes have significant implications for the study of urban travel. Because of the adoption of new modes of space‐time coordination, changing time use and increasing mobility, changing use of existing urban nodes, the blurring of boundaries between home and work, the importance of social networks and social capital, and the shift to person‐to‐person connectivity, the spatial structure and processes of interaction among individuals have become much more complicated in this age of mobile communications. Static spatial frameworks based on fixed points (e.g., home or workplace) and distances among them are no longer adequate for understanding urban travel. The study of urban travel now needs new conceptualizations and new methodologies.     

解读东莞人口快速城市化——以东城区为例

以东莞为切入口,基于实地调研和问卷调查,以东莞市东城区为例分析了人口快速城市化中外来人口边缘化、本地人口“二世祖”现象、城市空间形态混乱和社会问题突出等问题,并从导致人口快速城市化的原因入手分析,得出：经济方面——世界制造业在中国的低端平民化、引力方面——粗放的工业房地产、社会方面——文化的对立与人性异化3个主要原因.最后在综合分析的基础上提出了相应的调控措施,企图为解决全国人口快速城市化问题提供一些借鉴.     

基于问卷调查的石林植被恢复的社会经济支持分析研究

生态恢复的社会经济评价是一个新兴研究方向.以石林风景保护区植被恢复为例,运用"知识--态度--行为"的结构框架,开展了农户与土地的关系、农户对植被作用的理论认识和具体感受、对现行植被保护与植被恢复措施的有效性的看法、农户可接受的植被恢复方式4个方面的问卷调查研究.主要研究结论是村民对土地的依赖性较大、对石林地区植被恢复有积极态度,但对植被恢复与保护的模式选择具有明显的重视经济利益的倾向,同时也充分认识到目前植被恢复与保护的困难性.最后,有针对性地提出了综合学科研究、产业结构调整、整合协调机制等社会经济支持对策.     

Recent changes in flood risk in the Gran La Plata,Buenos Aires province,Argentina: causes and management strategy

The paper analyses the causes of flood occurrence in the Gran La Plata, Buenos Aires Province, Argentina, and the changes that have occurred since the 1970s. The area is characterized by serious deficiencies in the use and management of water resources. The main factors are: (1) flood risk information is not updated; (2) urban building organization does not consider the flood risk; (3) the topography and other physical features are not taken into account in urban development. This research considers some specific problems, especially in data availability, and suggests ways to solve them, including improved analytical methodology. One of the main objectives is to analyse flood risk in social terms, producing a map of flood risk from the “human social vulnerability” point of view. The results suggest that flood risk has increased since the 1980s and that this is associated with changes in precipitation patterns that have also been aggravated by lack of controls on urban development. The poorer areas with the lowest level of infrastructure and public services, many of them developed over the last quarter-century, are especially vulnerable.     

气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅲ):中国应对气候变化对策的综合评价

Climate change is increasingly becoming the hotspot issue of global attention. On the basis of review of the process responding to climate change of international community, this paper introduces the status of carbon emissions of the world and China, and the technology potential for China to mitigate carbon emissions. At the same time, this paper explores the macro-impacts of China's mitigation of carbon emissions, the equity of global mitigation of climate change, and the impacts of international cooperation in the field of climate change. Furthermore, this paper puts forward the ideas and countermeasures of mitigating climate change in China, indicating that China should positively adapt to the trends of international politics, economy and trade pattern changes and bring the strategies of mitigating climate change into national social and economic development strategy, planning to promote comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development of national economy and society under the situation of global response to climate change.     

土地可持续利用评价中GDP数据空间化方法的研究

分析了社会经济统计数据的空间化方法及GDP空间分布情况,提出了一种应用遥感和GIS技术,以土地利用类型为基础,结合面积权重与反距离加权的GDP数据空间化方法,实现了广东省韶关市GDP空间化.     

High density neighborhoods: Who enjoys them?

To date, research into the subjective aspects of high density has focused mainly on the negative consequences of overcrowding. This study, in contrast, outlines some of the positive aspects of high density in neighborhoods, exploring the physical–spatial environment of two neighborhoods in the city of Haifa, Israel. It was found that while the relatively high residential density was similar in both neighborhoods (40 housing units per acre), this was more positively evaluated in one neighborhood as compared to the other. This can be attributed to some specific environmental and planning features. In particular, where physical planning enabled the potential advantages of high density to be realized, this was positively perceived and evaluated by local residents. Such advantages mainly comprised accessibility to a variety of services, more frequent public transportation, and access to open spaces within walking distance. Particularly advantageous were the increased opportunities for social gathering. At the same time, however, high density did not foster social relationships on the neighborhood level. The study further identified the gender and age groups that benefited most from the high density. Thus, women evaluated high density more positively than men. Young families with children and senior citizens (over 65) were also more likely to benefit, and to evaluate the high density environment more positively than other social groups.     

Coping strategies in rural areas of the Buzau Sub–Carpathians

This paper focuses on the Sub–Carpathian region which has traditionally maintained a large rural population and is today suffering acute economic and social stress. During the present transition phase the rural population is struggling to survive by combining elements of the modern and traditional economies and research has been undertaken to clarify a range of household strategies. After profiling the communes of the Buzau Carpathians the problem is tackled at two levels on the basis of questionnaire work carried out during 1998–1999. First there is a general overview to outline conditions in Patarlagele commune, including some local contrasts between settlements on main transport axis along the Buzau valley and those in the hills and side valleys. Second there is a consideration of in-depth profiles of specific households in villages in the wider area including Panatau as well as Patarlagele commune. It remains to be seen to what extent the district will be able to safeguard its social capital when growth resumes in large towns especially Brasov and Buzau with which Patarlagele has the best contacts. It is also an open question how far the remoter settlements will retain a viable population, assuming that the services remain relatively poor while disadvantage persists with regard to both employment opportunities and physical security. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Social Cohesion; Is it sufficient? Migrant communities in two disadvantaged neighborhoods in Istanbul

Planners assume that old neighbourhoods have an atmosphere in which social relations can easily flourish. They also regard the strong social ties within a neighborhood as the guarantee for the success of housing rehabilitation. This article argues that existence of social cohesion in a neighbourhood is not necessarily an advantage in a process of modernisation and rehabilitation. In some cases the community may constitute a closed `island' especially in places where communities have historically inherited an hierarchical character. The article is based on a recent research project dealing with urban communities in inner city areas of Istanbul, especially those containing migrant populations which seemingly have strong community ties. The historical background of the community from the Ottoman period is examined in the first part of the article. The roots of the community as a territorial administrative unit (mahalle) and its modification in contemporary migrant communities are analysed. The second part of the article presents the results of two case studies. One of the case studies is a social housing district where the migrant community is mixed and social relations with the rest of the city are relatively well developed. The other case study area is an historical district where strong social ties create an introverted character of the community in spite of its central location. The result of the study reveals that urban `communities' in a city like Istanbul have both negative and positive aspects. Primarily it is important to assess and understand the degree of `opennes' of the community to the outer world. In any action to be taken planners should look not only inside the community, but also at its 'outer' relations.