刍议《重庆历史地图集》第二卷的编制

以《重庆历史地图集》第二卷编制的具体情况为例,对图集的开本设计、内容结构设计、封面和版式设计、整体设计、创新源,以及图集编制取得的经验进行了论述,为以后类似图集的编制提供参考。     

伴随对流层中低层气温持续下降的雪转雨过程分析

利用欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）0.25°×0.25°分辨率细网格模式产品、探空观测资料和风廓线雷达等资料,对2014年2月18日浙江嘉兴雨雪天气过程中降水相态先由雨转雪、再由雪转雨的变化条件进行了分析,并对ECMWF细网格模式产品进行了预报性能检验,结果表明：模式形势预报准确,但未能预报出雪转雨过程。在对流层中低层气温持续降低的情况下,水汽凝结高度不同是造成两次相态转换的主要原因。上午垂直运动加强,水汽充沛,降水粒子的凝结高度高,足以形成大的雪花,在较低的零度层高度以下降落时不至于融化;下午垂直运动减弱,水汽集中在低层,尽管这一高度层的气温在-3～-2 ℃,但是不足以凝结成固态降水,同时地面气温受海上暖平流影响而回升,因此降水相态由雪转雨。     

The Effects of Land Cover Change on Regional Climate over the Eastern Part of Northwest China

A regional climate model(Reg CM4) is employed to investigate the impacts of land use/cover change(LUCC) on the climate over the eastern part of Northwest China(ENW) in the periods of 2001 and 2011. The results indicated that the LUCC in ENW, which was characterized by desert retreat, reforestation, and farmland expansion, led to significant local changes in surface air temperature(within ~0.3°C) and slight regional changes in precipitation(within ~15%) in summer. In the desert retreat area, the net absorbed shortwave radiation had a greater influence than evaporative cooling, leading to increases in the daily mean and maximum temperature. Besides, the daily mean and maximum temperatures increased in the reforestation area but decreased in the farmland expansion area. As surface albedo showed no significant change in these regions, the temperature increase in the reforestation area can be attributed to a decrease in evaporation, while the opposite effect appears to have been the case in the farmland expansion area.     

Interannual and Decadal Variations of Surface Solar Radiation over East China in the First Half of the 20th Century

Variability and long-term trends of sunshine duration(SSD) and total cloud cover(TCC) were studied based on surface observations from 10 meteorological stations over East China in the first half of the 20 th century. The correlation coefficients between SSD and diurnal temperature range(DTR), as well as TCC, were analyzed. SSD experienced a significant increasing trend(0.16 h d-1 per decade) from 1908 to 1936, and the maximum brightening was in autumn(0.33 h d-1 per decade). The good agreement between the variability of SSD and DTR, supported by the correlation coefficient between them of 0.72, implies that the SSD measurements were reliable. TCC showed a decreasing trend(-0.93% per decade) and was significantly inversely related to SSD(-0.74), indicating the variation of SSD was attributable to changes in cloud cover. The result was obviously different to that since the 1960 s, when clouds could not account for the decadal trend of surface solar radiation in China.     

Classification of precipitation types using fall velocity-diameter relationships from 2D-video distrometer measurements

Fall velocity-diameter relationships for four different snowflake types (dendrite, plate, needle, and graupel) were investigated in northeastern South Korea, and a new algorithm for classifying hydrometeors is proposed for distrometric measurements based on the new relationships. Falling ice crystals (approximately 40 000 particles) were measured with a two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) during a winter experiment from 15 January to 9 April 2010. The fall velocity-diameter relationships were derived for the four types of snowflakes based on manual classification by experts using snow photos and 2DVD measurements: the coefficients (exponents) for different snowflake types were 0.82 (0.24) for dendrite, 0.74 (0.35) for plate, 1.03 (0.71) for needle, and 1.30 (0.94) for graupel, respectively. These new relationships established in the present study (PS) were compared with those from two previous studies. Hydrometeor types were classified with the derived fall velocity-diameter relationships, and the classification algorithm was evaluated using 3× 3 contingency tables for one rain-snow transition event and three snowfall events. The algorithm showed good performance for the transition event: the critical success indices (CSIs) were 0.89, 0.61 and 0.71 for snow, wet-snow and rain, respectively. For snow events, the algorithm performance for dendrite and plate (CSIs = 1.0 and 1.0, respectively) was better than for needle and graupel (CSIs = 0.67 and 0.50, respectively).     

Evaluating the economic damage of climate change on global coral reefs

This paper evaluates the global economic damage arising from the effects of climate change and associated carbon dioxide concentrations on the loss of coral reefs. We do this by first estimating the effects of sea surface temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations on coral cover. We develop a statistical relationship between coral coverage and sea surface temperature that indicates that the effects are dependent on the temperature range. For example, we find that increasing sea surface temperature causes coral coverage to decrease when sea surface temperature is higher than 26.85 °C, with the estimated reduction being 2.3% when sea surface temperature increases by 1%. In addition, we find that a 1% carbon dioxide increase induces a 0.6% reduction in global coral coverage. We also estimate the resultant loss in economic value based on a meta-analysis of the recreational and commercial value of reef coverage and a crude proportional approach for other value factors. The meta-analysis shows that the coral reef value decreases by 3.8% when coral cover falls by 1%. By combining these two steps we find that the lost value in terms of the global coral reef value under climate change scenarios ranges from US$3.95 to US$23.78 billion annually.     

低温雨雪过程的粒子群-神经网络预报模型

利用逐日气温和降水量数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及预报场资料,通过分析提取我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程及其预报因子,使用粒子群-神经网络方法建立非线性的统计集合预报模型 (PSONN-EPM),对我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程进行预报试验。结果表明:以过程的冷湿程度及影响范围为标准,将低温雨雪过程分为一般过程和严重过程,并建立不同的预报模型效果较好。通过10 d独立样本预报试验看,基于粒子群-神经网络方法建立的集合预报模型比基于逐步回归方法建立的预报模型的预报平均相对误差小,对严重过程预报能力高于对一般过程预报,且这种非线性统计集合建模方法在建模过程中不需要调整神经网络参数,在实际预报业务中值得尝试。     

雪冰中NO_3~-浓度记录的研究进展

NO3-是雪冰中含量最高的含氮无机离子,雪冰中NO3-浓度记录的解读已成为研究全球变化的重要内容之一.近年来国内外已经就极地与中低纬高海拔地区雪冰中NO3-浓度记录开展了大量的研究,关于NO3-所指示的环境意义形成了一系列的认识.从雪冰中NO3-的可能性来源(包括太阳活动、陆源粉尘、闪电等自然源以及其他人类源)、时空变化特征以及气-雪-冰界面转化过程等方面综述了近年来该领域的研究成果,并结合全球变化的背景对其研究前景进行了展望.     

积雪底部温度(BTS)方法在冻土分布调查和模型研究中的应用:研究进展

多年冻土的调查方法很多,如坑探、物探、遥感等,但相对于积雪底部温度(BTS)测量方法来说,这些方法都比较费时、费力、费钱.目前,BTS已经被成功应用于阿尔卑斯山等地多年冻土的调查研究,不过在国内的应用却是个空白.引入BTS方法,希望能为我国多年冻土的研究开辟一条新路.     

中国积雪资源时空演变特征及其旅游开发关键区识别

积雪资源深刻影响着滑雪旅游的发展与布局,刻画中国积雪资源时空特征,识别旅游开发关键区,对中国冰雪旅游高质量发展具有重要意义。本文通过Mann-Kendall突变检验、热点分析、重要-感知实绩分析（IPA）等方法刻画中国1979—2020年积雪资源时空演变特征,构建资源稳定性-旅游开发适宜性指标体系,识别中国滑雪旅游开发关键区。结果表明：(1)中国积雪资源过去40年变化可划为3个阶段,1980—1995年（Ⅰ）积雪资源下降,1995—2010年（Ⅱ）增加,2010—2020年（Ⅲ）下降。在空间上,变化面积呈现Ⅰ-Ⅱ（33.2%）>Ⅱ-Ⅲ（31.1%）>Ⅰ-Ⅲ（29.3%）的特征;(2)中国积雪资源在月尺度上,1—3月（Ⅰ）积雪资源基本维持稳定,3—10月（Ⅱ）显著下降,10—12月（Ⅲ）恢复。在空间上,变化面积呈Ⅰ-Ⅲ（30.3%）>Ⅱ-Ⅲ（28.3%）>Ⅰ-Ⅱ（26.8%）的变化规律;(3)中国境内滑雪旅游开发极关键区面积占比为4.90%、关键区为11.69%、一般区为31.57%、不关键区为25.73%、极不关键区为26.11%,总体来看中国境内85%的区域不...