伊犁地区近35年冬季积雪变化特征分析

通过对伊犁地区8个气象地面观测站35a(1971—2005年)11—3月逐旬的冬季最大积雪深度、积雪日数、降水量和平均温度的统计分析,结果表明:伊犁地区冬季降雪的时间、空间分布不均,最大降雪发生在新源;平均雪深最大的是伊宁县,最小的是特克斯县;冬季积雪日数变化相对比较稳定;冬季降雪与平均温度存在着很好的响应关系。在SPSS中对冬季的平均温度与平均降水和平均雪深进行相关分析,发现平均雪深、平均温度和平均降水为显著正相关。     

关于气象灾害笼罩面积与出现概率的一个定理

从气象图表(如天气图)上可以得到某气象灾害(如暴雨、高温,也可以是一般气象现象、要素、变量等)所笼罩的面积占总面积的百分比F,从气象资料中可以得到该气象现象的出现概率p。本文证明:F对时间的平均值等于p对天气图面积的平均值。本文初步讨论了这个定理的应用,还指出对这类问题的深入分析会引出分布函数概念和熵气象学。     

土地覆盖制图：基于最优化遥感数据的支撑向量机分类

遥感数据具有在不同空间、光谱和时间尺度上获取地表测量信息的能力,使其成为获取土地覆盖信息的一个主要数据源。影像分类即把卫星影像上的相关像元划分给某类已知的土地覆盖类型的过程。支撑向量机（SVMs）是一种土地覆盖分类的新技术。三种常用的SVMs是：基于线性和多项式的SVM以及具有高斯核函数的SVM分类器,分类能否成功地应用有赖于其各自选择的最佳参数。但是海量的遥感数据使得这些参数的确定速度十分缓慢。本文研究了一种新的基于最优化遥感数据压缩技术的SVM分类方法。研究显示用于获取SVM参数的数据量能够在不影响土地覆盖的分类精度的前提下进行压缩。数据压缩成功的应用于多项式和高斯核函数的SVM分类,而线性SVM的分类精度却非常低。     

Analysis of the impact of conservation measures on stream flow regime in catchments of the Loess Plateau,China

Catchments in the Loess Plateau have been under the influence of human activities for centuries. In the last four decades, soil conservation measures have accelerated and intensified. These measures were designed to reduce soil erosion, improve agricultural productivity, and enhance environmental quality. It is important to evaluate the effects of these measures on hydrology in order to develop sustainable catchment management plans in the region. This study evaluated changes in stream flow data for four selected catchments in the Loess Plateau following large‐scale soil conservation measures. The non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test was used to identify trends in annual stream flow and the results showed significant downward trends in three of the four catchments. The Pettitt test indicated that a change point occurred in 1978 in these three catchments. Annual precipitation in all the catchments showed no significant trend during the period of record. Comparison of daily flow duration curves for two 20‐year periods (1957–1978) and (1979–2003) showed significant changes in stream flow regime. Reduction in most percentile flows varied between 20 and 45%, and the reduction in low flows was greatest. Overall, the reductions in daily flow were increasing with time, with significant changes occurring in the 1990s. However, it is not clear whether these catchments have seen the full effects of the soil conservation measures, so the results of this study might underestimate the final impact of soil conservation on stream flow regime. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

南极威德尔海周边雪冰和大气气溶胶中的MSA,nssSO_4~(2-)浓度及其比率研究

分析了威德尔海周边雪冰和大气中ＭＳＡ和ｎｓｓＳＯ２－４浓度资料。结果表明,威德尔海是造成这一地区大气中高含量生物硫化物的“源”,其周边岛屿及冰架表层雪冰记载和反映了大气中生物硫化物的空间分布和季节变化特点。源区产出硫化物的强度存在显著差异：靠近南极半岛一侧高于靠近Ｆｉｌｃｈｎｅｒ－Ｒｏｎｎｅ冰架一侧。尽管诸多因素对输运和沉降过程发生影响,表层积雪ＭＳＡ和ｎｓＳＯ２－４浓度仍呈现出很有规律性的空间分布：随沉降地点离海距离和海拔高度的增加,浓度值递减;但在一定海拔之下,“高程效应”不显著。冰芯中ＭＳＡ浓度垂向分布显示出季节分配“滞后”现象,在表层表现为受天气条件制约的输运过程造成的相位差,在深层则归因于有待验证的“迁移”机制作用的结果。大气和雪冰样品对比研究结果表明,在类似威德尔海这样的高纬地区,大气中的ＳＯ２－４和ＭＳＡ“信号”在雪冰样品中会遭到不同程度的减弱。但就空间变化趋势和季节分布而言,表层雪冰仍是大气中组分（在本文是ＳＯ２－４和ＭＳＡ）的良好载体。十分接近的大气和雪冰ＭＳＡ对ｎｓｓＳＯ２－４（或ＳＯ２－４）比率证实,这两种大气组分在由大气洗净和沉降到冰雪过程中只发生微弱的分离作用。这也就是大气和雪冰中     

青藏高原雪盖对亚洲季风影响研究进展

资料分析和数值模拟均表明,青藏高原作为一个特殊的抬高了的下垫面,其上雪盖面积和积雪日数等的异常均与亚洲夏季风的强弱及起讫有关．雪盖面积大、积雪日数多的年份,亚洲季风弱且爆发迟,推进慢;雪盖面积小、积雪日数少的年份,亚洲季风强且爆发早,推进快．但也存在不同的看法     

亚南极冰川雪冰内MSA的季节变化(英)

Methanesulphonate was investigated as a potential contributor to the sulphur budget based on the analysis on Antarctic snow/ice from Coffins Ice Cap, King George Island (62°10' S, 58°50,W). The anion was found to be present at a mean concentration of 0. 17 μeq. L-1 with a maximum of 0.73 μeq. L-1. A distinct seasonal variation exists in the top 10 m of the core, equivalent to more than two years of deposition. Dating resulted from δ18O profile suggests that the principal peaks of methanesulphonate are associated with snow deposited in autumn and secondary peaks in spring. The seasonal patterns of methanesulphonate in the subantarctic snow displays a phase difference from that observed in marine air from low and middle latitudes.     

二滩水电站地震遥测台网持续时间震级的研制

利用二滩水电站地震遥测台网的速度量和位移量观测记录,收集了震级ＭＬ为０．４￣５．４的４６０次地震（Δ〈２１０ｋｍ）的振动持续时间３５００多条,制作了该台网的持续时间震级公式和便查表。在方法上,不同于通常的按一次或两次曲线拟合,而采取计算机自动分段按折线拟合的方法,以阻尼最小二乘法完成其计算;在资料上,先分台制作８个子台的持续时间震级公式,在此基础上选择仪器、台基及公式中参数相近的子台,制作了适用于     

气候变化对新疆玛纳斯河流域水文水资源的影响

考虑积雪和降水不均等特点,对流域进行分带处理,提出和建立了包含积雪融雪结构的水文评价模型。利用该模型求得未来不同气候变化情况下的月均流量过程,分析气候变化对玛纳斯河流域水文水资源的影响。结果表明:若气温升高2℃,降水减少20%,则夏季径流减少52.59%,冬季径流减少1.77%,年均径流减少46.87%。