地热异常的水槽模型实验

作为地球物理场的一个分支,地温场在理论和应用研究方面与其它地球物理场一样,也主要是依靠数学方法和物理模型实验的方法来进行的。本文讨论了地热异常水槽模型实验的理论原理;介绍了实验方法技术、实验结果和实际应用效果。     

Comparative evaluation of Poisson partial duration models for mixed flood populations

Simple homogeneous formulations of two extreme value partial duration flood models are compared to more sophisticated compound formulations in terms of asymptotic performance of quantile estimates. The compound model formulations were developed to model flood series resulting from mixed climatological processes. It was found that only in the case of marked nonhomogeneity in the data samples did the compound formulation of the models offer significant advantages in terms of variance of quantile estimates. However, the estimates from the homogeneous model were significantly biased in the negative direction. This negative bias of quantile estimates from the simple model was even more pronounced when the more sophisticated Weibull model was used as the base.     

塞北雪（锂—锶—偏硅酸）珍贵天然矿泉水

经勘察评价和国家级评审鉴定，天镇县城关Ｔ＿（６７）井属锂－锶－偏硅酸三项达标的复合型优质饮用天然矿泉水。矿泉水产于近东西向挽近断裂带上，马圈痒地热田边部，地势平坦，环境无污染，交通便利，水质独特，水量丰富，具有综合开发优势，适宜建厂开发。     

试论中国南北大陆的碰撞造山带

中国北方的中朝克拉通与南方的扬子克拉通无论在基底年代及盖层发育程度、沉积环境及古生物群上都有差异。它们是两个构造发育史不同的大陆。这两个古大陆之间的大洋究竟有多宽？是何时关闭的？合并时的构造运动强烈程度？在挽近地质历史时期有无相类似的情况？这些问题一直是中外地质学家所关注，并在不同程度上讨论过的问题。近年来的地质工作，提供了一些可据以回答上述问题的成果，但全面可靠地回答上述全部问题还有待今后的努力。笔者在过去的文章（1-3）曾讨论一些有关问题。本文，拟就近期国内外的研究成果，发表一些评论，并提出作者的看法     

云南山区日照时数的垂直分布

根据云南省内若干山区气象资料,研究云南山区日照时效的垂直分布规律,得出一些有意义的结论:日照时数垂直分布有抛物线型、线性型、缓变型等;日照时数年内变化有冬大夏小型、春大夏小型、夏大冬小型3种;山区日照时数坡向差异明显,各山区不尽相同。     

Forward Calculation of 2-D and 3-D Structures with a Cover by the Boundary Element Method while Using Electrical Methods

This paper develops the boundary element method,the authors employtwo-layered earth Green’s functions as the weighting functions of residual andderive boundary integral equations.The forward problems of point sources on2-D and 3-D structures with an influencing cover are solved by this method.The results show that this method markedly improves the original boundaryelement method.The features of the improved method are greater numericalaccuracy and much smaller systems of equations and thus considerable savingsfor the storage capacity of computers,allowing us to solve the above problemswith only ordinary microcomputers.The results in this paper extend the scopeof applying the boundary element method while using electrical methods forgeophysical prospecting.     

On the distribution of flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena

A methodology based on the theory of stochastic processes is applied to the analysis of floods. The approach will be based on some results of the theory of extreme values over a threshold. In this paper, we focus on the estimation of the distribution of the flood volume in partial duration series analysis of flood phenomena, by using a bivariate exponential distribution of discharge exceedances and durations over a base level.     

Evaluation of risk concepts in partial duration series

Conventional design practice aims at obtaining optimal estimates of floods with specified exceedance probabilities. Such estimates are, however, known on the average to be exceeded more frequently than expected. Alternatively, methods focusing on the expected exceedance probability can be used. Two different methods are considered here; the first is based on the sample distribution of true exceedance probabilities. The second is a Bayesian analogue using the likelihood function and a noninformative prior to describe the variability of exceedance probabilities. Appropriate analytical solutions are presented in both cases using the partial duration series approach.     

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS ON THE EFFECT OF QINGHAIXIZANG PLATEAU SNOW COVER ON SUMMER MONSOON FORMATION

The calculating schemes of underlying surface processes in the model described by Li et al.(1989)are modified with inclusion of simple land surface processes and oceanic mixed layer processes,then a simulation on the zonal wind along 90°E from the Northern to the Southern Hemisphere with moun-tains is performed.Comparisons of the results and the observations show that the modified model not onlyhas an excellent stability in calculation but also can better display the seasonal change of the wind field,theability of the present model is improved as compared with that of the previous one.Based on the simulations,the authors investigate the effects of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau snow cover on theformation of South Asian monsoon by thickcning the snow depth and by increasing the snow albedo.Themain results arc as follows:The summer meridional circulation over the south of the Plateau and its vicinityis weakeued,and the precipitation reduced.However,over the northern tropics,the circulation is enhanced,and the ecipitation is increased,and the land and the air above it become warmer,the tropical easterly jetis weakened.     

南方大到暴雪的一种预报方法

对构成南方大到暴雪的两个特征量：降水量和积雪深度用多种预报方法从晴雨、降水性质、降水量级、冰冻及积雪厚度等不同角度分别进行预报，然后通过推理组合，最终建立暴雪预报方法。该方法除了可以得出有无大到暴雪的预报结果外，还可以得到多种中间预报结果，从而适应预报服务的多种需要。在近３年的实际使用中获得了很好的效果。