21世纪中国地质灾害防治形势与减灾战略思考

文章论述了21世纪中国地质灾害减灾面临的形势是既存在许多有利条件又存在多方面困难而面临严重挑战。提出21世纪地质灾害减灾战略：1．建立地质灾害防治安全维护体系；2．优先安排西部地区地质灾害防治工程，实施地质灾害风险管理；3．建立矿山地质灾害防治监督管理体系；4．城市地质灾害防治与土地利用相结合；5．加强我国地质环境监测与网站建设；6．针对地质灾害区域分布规律，采取分区减灾对策；7．加大地质灾害防治投入力度。     

Design Earthquakes in the U.K.

Three sites in the UK are taken, representative of low, medium and high hazard levels (by UK standards). For each site, the hazard value at 10⁻⁴ annual probability is computed using a generic seismic source model, and a variety of ground motion parameters: peak ground acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration at 10 Hz and 1 Hz, and intensity. Disaggregation is used to determine the nature of the earthquakes most likely to generate these hazard values. It is found (as might be expected) that the populations are quite different according to which ground motion parameter is used. When PGA is used, the result is a rather flat magnitude distribution with a tendency to low magnitude events (\le 4.5 ML) which are probably not really hazardous. Hazard-consistent scenario earthquakes computed using intensity are found to be in the range 5.8–5.9 ML, which is more in accord with the type of earthquake that one expects to be a worst-case event in the UK. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Perceptions of hazard and risk on Santorini

Santorini, Greece is a major explosive volcano. The Santorini volcanic complex is composed of two active volcanoes—Nea Kameni and Mt. Columbo. Holocene eruptions have generated a variety of processes and deposits and eruption mechanisms pose significant hazards of various types. It has been recognized that, for major European volcanoes, few studies have focused on the social aspects of volcanic activity and little work has been conducted on public perceptions of hazard, risk and vulnerability. Such assessments are an important element of establishing public education programmes and developing volcano disaster management plans. We investigate perceptions of volcanic hazards on Santorini. We find that most residents know that Nea Kameni is active, but only 60% know that Mt. Columbo is active. Forty percent of residents fear that negative impacts on tourism will have the greatest effect on their community. In the event of an eruption, 43% of residents would try to evacuate the island by plane/ferry. Residents aged >50 have retained a memory of the effects of the last eruption at the island, whereas younger residents have no such knowledge. We find that dignitaries and municipal officers (those responsible for planning and managing disaster response) are informed about the history, hazards and effects of the volcanoes. However, there is no “emergency plan” for the island and there is confusion between various departments (Civil Defense, Fire, Police, etc.) about the emergency decision-making process. The resident population of Santorini is at high risk from the hazards associated with a future eruption.     

落石堆积的结构特征与斜坡破坏型式之转换

在基岩山区和丘陵区，落石堆积的分布非常广泛、并可经长期积累而形成巨大规模。然而，因缺乏研究，它们(尤其是规模较大者)经常被误定成滑坡或崩塌堆积。为此，作者结合长江三峡工程和西部大开发的需要，采用天然模型勘测和岩相分析等多种方法对其进行了长期研究。结果认为：1．落石堆积(累积体)通常是在扩离-落石发育而崩塌、滑坡不发育的陡崖(坡)下形成，同时还需有较平坡面，便于落石停积而不易被重力和流水搬走的堆积场所；2．落石堆积的结构特征为：(1)前缘土体较密实且粒(块)径较小，后缘多大块石并常具架空结构；(2)不等粒系数普遍较大；(3)常有淤泥质和砂、卵石夹层或透镜体；(4)前缘可具向外陡倾的加积层理。基于此，水的潜蚀作用和地表水对前缘的集中冲刷常成为落石堆积变形破坏的主因；3．落石堆积的破坏型式为滑坡、泥石流或碎屑流；4．落石堆积的勘查应特别注意查明环境水文地质条件、储水结构及相关参数；其稳定性评价应首先分析不同工程活动影响下产生潜蚀的可能性；5．为防治斜坡失稳，首先应保护落石堆积的自稳结构和选用有防潜蚀功能的开放型措施；6．深入研究落石堆积，对沉积学和工程地质学也具有理论意义和实用价值。     

陕北砂黄土区公路地质灾害及防治对策

中国西北黄土的颗粒组成具有明显的地带性分布规律，自NW向SE可依次划分为砂黄土带、典型黄土带和粘黄土带。黄土高原北部地质灾害综合调查表明，砂黄土区公路地质灾害的主要类型包括黄土边坡滑塌灾害、路堤裂陷灾害、路桥变形和冲蚀灾害等。根据试验测试分析结果，公路地质灾害的形成主要受黄土本身的物质组成、结构及力学性质控制，人类工程活动的盲目性是诱发地质灾害的重要因素。文章在砂黄土公路地质灾害特征分析的基础上，提出加强边坡防护和冲蚀灾害防治是公路地质灾害防治的两个基本途径，并给出了针对性的防治对策。这不仅对该地区的公路建设具有重要的指导作用，而且对其它生命线工程如铁路、输油气管道、渠道等也具有重要的借鉴意义。     

莺歌海盆地断裂活动与地质灾害分析

莺歌海盆地是南海西北部海域地质灾害类型较齐全的地区之一。根据野外调查资料,本文简要地分析了该区的活动断裂和地质灾害类型。区内活动断裂主要走向呈NW向,该方向的活动断裂主要有红河断裂带、中央拗陷东部断裂带和中央拗陷西部断裂带。红河断裂带在地震资料上显示为一倾向SW的正断层,表现为明显的重力梯级带和磁异常分界带,NE向断裂带分布于盆地中部,在重磁异常上表现为明显的异常带,在北部表现为被NW向的断裂切割。莺歌海盆地地质灾害类型主要有地震活动、泥底辟构造、滑坡与崩塌等。同时,还对该区地质灾害基本特征和分布规律进行了初步分析。     

Some Morphological Aspects and Hydrological Characterization of the Tagus Floods in the Santarém Region, Portugal

In Portugal, few studies have been made of the historical floods of the RiverTagus (the longest in the Iberian Peninsula). This fact led to the study of theLower Tagus (Santarém region) using written historical documents,cartographic documents and hydrological data, consisting mainly of waterlevel records. With the support of the historical documents and the analysisof all the maps, it was possible to verify that the human intervention has beenfundamental in the morphological changes of the Tagus' channel. It becameaware that the river changed from a braided to a single channel with alternatebars. From the hydrological data, return periods for the floods were determined,using the Pearson Type 3 distribution. The selection of the most important floods,from 1855 to 1998, enabled to build a ``flood hazard scale' for this region.     

On the long-term seismic hazard analysis in the Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone, China

The Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone (ZPSZ) lies in the northern part of North China and extends along the Zhangjiakou–Beijing–Tianjin–Bohai Bay–Penglai–Yellow Sea. It is about 900 km long and some 250 km wide in a northwest direction. The great Sanhe-Pinggu (M_S=8.0) earthquake occurred on September 1679 and the Tangshan (M_S=7.8) earthquake on July 1976 caused serious economic and life losses. According to some differences in crust structure and regional tectonic stress field, the ZPSZ is divided into western and eastern segment by the 117°E line for study on long-term seismic hazard analysis. An analysis of Gutenberg–Richter's empirical relation of earthquake-frequency and time process of historic and recent earthquakes along the eastern and western segments shows that the earthquake activity obeys a Poisson process, and these calculations indicate that the earthquake occurrence probability of M_S=6.0–6.9 is 0.77–0.83 in the eastern segment and the earthquake occurrence probability of M_S=7.0–7.9 is 0.78–0.80 in the western segment of the ZPSZ during a period from 2005 to 2015.     

A time-space based approach for mapping rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazard

A rainfall-induced shallow landslide is a major hazard in mountainous terrain, but a time-space based approach is still an unsettled issue for mapping rainfall-induced shallow landslide hazards. Rain induces a rise of the groundwater level and an increase in pore water pressure that results in slope failures. In this study, an integrated infinite slope analysis model has been developed to evaluate the influence of infiltration on surficial stability of slopes by the limit equilibrium method. Based on this new integrated infinite slope analysis model, a time-space based approach has been implemented to map the distributed landslide hazard in a GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and to evaluate the shallow slope failure induced by a particular rainfall event that accounts for the rainfall intensity and duration. The case study results in a comprehensive time-space landslide hazard map that illustrates the change of the safety factor and the depth of the wetting front over time.     

Management of Historical Seismic Data Using GIS: The Island of Ischia (Southern Italy)

This paper presents the results of the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) inmanaging information on the effects of earthquakes in historical times on the island ofIschia. The unpublished sources on the Casamicciola earthquake of 28 July 1883 andthe extensive bibliography documenting the island's seismicity from 1228 showed theneed to proceed towards a type of data storage that would also allow management ofthe same data. Application of GIS techniques allowed us to insert, extract, handle,manage and analyse the data for the zoning of seismic damage on the island of Ischia.The end-product consists of information layers, such as maps of isoseismals, the damage, and hazard involved, as well as numerical tables associated to maps.The study was developed using GIS Arc-View 3.2 software (ESRI) and is structured inthematic vectorial levels and rasters. The overlapping themes constitute a cartographicdata base of the island. The damaged sites are located on a map at a scale of 1:10,000,with all the information on the 1883 earthquake (total number of houses, number ofcollapsed houses, collapsed or damaged rooms, photographs, plans of buildings, etc.)being associated to each site. The GIS is structured in such a way as to be able to beintegrated with further georeferenced data and with other databases. It is thus able toprovide support both for in-depth analyses of the dynamic processes on the island andextend the assessment to other natural risks (volcanic, landslides, flooding, etc.).